World Agricultural Outlook Board Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts Lockup Briefing
World Wheat Production Country or Region Million Tons World 656.5 712.5 8.5 United States 61.7 58.0-6.0 Foreign 594.8 654.6 1 Argentina 9.3 10.5 12.9 Canada 27.2 37.5 37.8 Australia 22.5 27.0 20.2 European Union 133.9 142.9 6.7 Russia 37.7 52.1 38.1 Ukraine 15.8 22.3 41.3 Kazakhstan 9.8 13.9 41.7 China 121.0 121.7 0.6 India 94.9 93.5-1.4 2
World Wheat Supply and Use Million Tons Beginning stocks 198.9 176.6 0.4-11.2 Production 656.5 712.5 8.5 Total Supply 855.4 889.1 0.1 3.9 Feed use 136.6 132.9-1.5-2.7 Total use 678.8 702.4-0.3 3.5 Trade 137.4 160.9-0.7 17.1 Ending Stocks 176.6 186.7 1.6 5.7 3
World Corn and Wheat Exports Trade Years* *Corn trade year October-September. Wheat trade year July-June. Source: USDA-FAS, Office of Global Analysis, Grains:World Markets and Trade, 10, 2014 4
U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand Planted area (million acres) 55.7 56.2 0.9 Harvested area (million acres) 48.9 45.2-7.7 Yield (bushels per acre) 46.3 47.2 1.9 Million bushels Beginning stocks 743 718-3.3 Production 2,266 2,130-6.0 Imports 123 165-2.9 34.4 Total supply 3,131 3,013-0.2-3.8 Food use 945 960 1.6 Seed 73 74-0.2 1.9 Feed and residual 388 220-12.0-43.4 Domestic use 1,406 1,254-2.3-10.8 Exports 1,007 1,175 16.6 Total use 2,414 2,429-1.2 0.7 Ending stocks 718 583 4.5-18.8 Stocks to use ratio 29.7 24.0 Dollars per bushel Average market price 7.77 6.75/6.95-11.8 5
World Rice Production Country or Region Million Tons World 471.3 475.6 0.2 0.9 United States 6.3 6.1-3.5 Foreign 464.9 469.5 0.2 1.0 Brazil 8.0 8.6 3.6 7.6 Egypt 4.7 4.9 3.7 Bangladesh 33.8 34.6 2.3 Cambodia 4.6 4.9 6.5 China 143.0 142.3-0.5 India 105.2 105.0-0.2 Indonesia 36.6 37.4 2.2 Japan 7.8 7.8 1.0 Sri Lanka 2.7 2.8 2.8 Pakistan 5.8 6.6 3.1 13.8 Philippines 11.4 11.6 1.9 Thailand 20.2 20.5 1.5 Vietnam 27.5 27.8 0.4 1.0 6
World Rice Supply and Use Million Tons, milled Beginning stocks 106.7 110.2-0.7 3.3 Production 471.3 475.6 0.2 0.9 Total Supply 577.9 585.8 1.4 Total use 467.8 474.6 0.1 1.5 Trade 39.2 40.9 4.5 Ending Stocks 110.2 111.2-0.5 0.9 7
U.S. Rice Supply and Demand Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice Planted area (million acres) 2.70 2.49-7.8 Harvested area (million acres) 2.68 2.47-7.9 Yield (pounds per acre) 7,449 7,694 3.3 Million cwt Beginning stocks 41.1 36.4-11.3 Production 199.5 189.9-4.8 Imports 21.1 22.0 4.5 Total supply 261.7 248.3-5.1 Domestic use 118.2 124.0 3.3 4.9 Exports 107.1 97.0-3.0-9.4 Total use 225.3 221.0 0.5-1.9 Ending stocks 36.4 27.3-3.5-25.0 Stocks to use ratio 16.2 12.4 Dollars per cwt Average market price 15.10 16.60/17.20 1.8 11.9 8
World Corn Production Country or Region Million Tons World 866.9 973.9 0.7 12.3 United States 273.8 353.7 29.2 Foreign 593.1 620.2 1.0 4.6 Argentina 27.0 24.0-11.1 Brazil 81.5 72.0 2.9-11.7 Mexico 21.6 21.9 0.9 1.4 Canada 13.1 14.2 8.7 European Union 58.9 64.9 10.2 FSU-12 32.4 47.2 2.2 45.9 Ukraine 20.9 30.9 47.7 Russia 8.2 11.6 8.9 41.7 South Africa 12.4 14.0 7.7 13.2 China 205.6 217.7 5.9 India 22.3 23.0 3.3 9
Brazil Corn Summary April 2014 Brazil Corn Unit Change from last month (%) Change from last year (%) Prev. Record Area Mil. ha 15.8* 14.7 NC -7% 15.8 Yield Tons/ha 5.16* 4.90 3% -5% 5.16 Production Mil. tons * Indicates a record Year 81.50* 72.00 3% -12% 81.50 10
Brazil Corn: First-season compared to First-season Corn Planting began in September 2013. Area down 0.4 Mha from last year. Crop is harvested. Some damage from heat and drought. Corn production used by livestock industry. Second-season Second-season Corn Planting began in Feb. 2014. High cost of production and low prices result in unprofitability. Area down 0.7 Mha from last year. Rains in Parana, Mato Grosso do Sul, Goias and Mato Grosso have increased yield potential. Corn production for export market. 11
Average Since Last Meeting Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board 2 nd Corn (DERAL) 99% Planted Mar 30: 82% vegetative 14% flowering 3% filling 92% Good / 1% Poor 12
1 2 3 13
3. Toledo, Parana, Brazil Satellite-derived vegetation health indicates conditions for (RED) are similar to season (YELLOW) for corn in Parana. Corn yields are similar to last year s 4.83 tons per hectare. Second-crop corn Critical flowering and grainfill stages for secondcrop corn are expected in late April and early May. 14
South Africa s Grain Basket Approximately 50% of production is divided between east and west. West: Lower yields & greater corn area North West Gautang Mpumalanga East: Higher yields & less corn area Free State 15
Lower Yields in the West Lower yields in the west due to lower rainfall and low plant density from wide row spacings (>1.5-meters). 16
Monthly Actual Evapotranspiration (ETa) Anomaly Derived from Thermal Band on MODIS sensor of Average (2001-2010) Dec, 2013 Jan, 2014 Feb, 2014 Mar, 2014 Source: FEWSNET/USGS Africa: http://earlywarning.usgs.gov/adds/africa/index.php Global: http://earlywarning.usgs.gov/fews/global/index.php 17
Average Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board 18
North West Province: MODIS-NDVI Time Series Source: USDA/NASA GLAM Project http://glam1.gsfc.nasa.gov/ 19
Latest trend is to install center pivots (CP) with smaller diameters. 20
World Corn Supply and Use Million Tons Beginning stocks Production Total Supply Feed use Total use Trade Ending Stocks 132.8 866.9 999.8 517.3 865.4 94.8 134.4 134.4 973.9 1,108.3 576.2 950.3 119.4 158.0 21-0.2 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.7 4.3-0.3 1.2 12.3 10.9 11.4 9.8 26.0 17.6
U.S. Corn Supply and Demand Planted area (million acres) Harvested area (million acres) Yield (bushels per acre) Beginning stocks Production Imports Total supply Feed and residual Food, seed, and industrial Ethanol Domestic use Exports Total use Ending stocks Stocks to use ratio Average market price 97.2 95.4 87.4 87.7 123.4 158.8 Million bushels 989 821 10,780 13,925 162 35 11,932 14,781 4,333 5,300 6,046 6,400 4,648 5,000 10,379 11,700 731 1,750 11,111 13,450 821 1,331 7.4 9.9 Dollars per bushel 6.89 4.40/4.80 22-1.8 0.3 28.7 7.7 0.9-8.6-17.0 29.2-78.4 23.9 22.3 5.8 7.6 12.7 139.3 21.1 62.1 2.2-33.2
World Soybean Production Country or Region Million Tons World United States Foreign Argentina Brazil Paraguay Ukraine India China 268.1 82.6 185.5 49.3 82.0 8.3 2.4 11.5 13.1-0.5-0.7-1.1-6.8 284.0 89.5 194.5 54.0 87.5 8.1 2.8 11.0 12.2 23 5.9 8.4 4.8 9.5 6.7-2.4 14.9-4.3-6.5
Brazil Soybean Summary April 2014 Unit Change from last month (%) Area Mil. ha 27.70 29.90* 1% 8% 27.70 Yield Tons/ha 2.96 2.93-4% -1% 3.11 2010/11 Production Mil. tons 82.00 87.50* -1% 7% 82.00 Brazil Soybean * Indicates a Change from last year (%) Prev. Record Year record 24
Hot and dry in early February 2014. About 40 percent of production. 25
U.S. Soybean Supply and Demand Planted area (million acres) Harvested area (million acres) Yield (bushels per acre) Beginning stocks Production Imports Total supply Crush Seed and residual Domestic use Exports Total use Ending stocks Stocks to use ratio Average market price 77.2 76.5 76.2 75.9 39.8 43.3 Million bushels 169 141 3,034 3,289 36 65 3,239 3,494 1,689 1,685 90 95 1,779 1,780 1,320 1,580 3,099 3,360 141 135 4.5 4.0 Dollars per bushel 14.40 12.50/13.50 26-0.9-0.4 8.8 85.7 0.9-0.3-4.5-0.5 3.3 1.2-7.3-17.0 8.4 79.9 7.9-0.2 5.2 19.7 8.4-4.1 0.4-9.7
World Cotton Production Country or Region Million Bales World United States Foreign Argentina Brazil Turkey Syria Australia China India Pakistan Uzbekistan African Franc Zone 123.0 17.3 105.7 0.8 6.0 2.7 0.7 4.6 35.0 28.5 9.3 4.5 4.2 116.6 12.9 103.8 1.3 7.5 2.3 0.6 4.1 32.0 29.0 9.5 4.3 4.2 27-0.1-2.4 0.3-3.8 1.4 2.2 2.4-5.2-25.7-1.8 66.7 25.0-13.2-17.2-10.9-8.6 1.8 2.2-5.6
World Cotton Supply and Use Million Bales Beginning stocks Production Total Supply Total Use Trade Ending Stocks Addendum: China Ending Stocks 73.4 123.0 196.5 106.5 46.7 89.7 89.7 116.6 206.3 109.5 39.6 96.9 0.6-0.1 0.2 0.2 3.0 0.2 22.1-5.2 5.0 2.8-15.1 8.1 50.4 58.8 1.7 16.8 28
U.S. Cotton Supply and Demand Planted area (million acres) Harvested area (million acres) Yield (pounds per acre) Beginning stocks Imports Production Total supply Mill use Exports Total use Unaccounted Ending stocks Stocks/use Average market price 12.31 10.41 9.37 7.66 887 806 Million bales 3.35 3.90 1 1 17.32 12.87 20.68 16.78 3.50 3.60 13.03 10.70 16.53 14.30 0.25-2 3.90 2.50 23.6 17.5 Cents per pound 72.5 76.0/79.0 29-2.4-15.5-18.2-9.1-2.4-1.9 16.4-25.7-18.9 2.9-17.9-13.5-10.7-35.9 1.3 6.9
Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand Thousand MT Beginning stocks Production Imports Total Supply Domestic use Exports Total Use Ending stocks 966 6,975 217 8,158 4,726 1,972 6,698 1,460 1,460 6,350 226 8,036 4,690 2,399 7,089 947 30 51.1-9.0 4.1-1.5-0.8 21.6 5.8-35.1
U.S. Sugar Supply and Demand 1,000 short tons, raw value Beginning Stocks Production Beets Cane Imports TRQ Re-export Mexico High-tier Total Supply Exports Domestic deliveries Total use Ending stocks 1,979 8,982 5,076 3,906 3,224 957 136 2,124 7 14,185 274 11,752 12,026 2,158 2,158 8,644 4,984 3,660 3,184 1,319 110 1,745 10 13,987 325 12,051 12,376 1,610-0.1-0.8-0.8-0.8-0.5-4.4 9.1-3.8-1.8-6.3-1.2 37.8-19.1-17.8 42.9-1.4 18.6 2.5 2.9-25.4 Stocks/use ratio 17.9 13.0 31
U.S. Meat Production and Prices Production Beef Pork Broilers Turkey Total meat Prices Steers Hogs Broilers Turkey 2013 2014 Billion pounds 25.72 24.57 23.20 22.76 37.83 38.50 5.80 5.68 93.34 92.29 Dollars/cwt 125.89 147.34 64.05 73.67 Cents/lb 99.7 102.1 99.8 105.7 32 2013 0.1-2.6-0.5-0.4-0.9-4.5-1.9 1.8-2.2-1.1 3.5 9.8 17.0 15.0 4.6 2.5 2.4 5.9
U.S. Meat Trade Million Pounds Beef Pork Broilers Turkey Mature Chickens Total meat Beef 2013 2014 Exports 2,583 2,515 4,992 4,850 7,364 7,525 758 710 108 100 15,812 15,709 Imports 2,250 2,325 33 2013 3.3-2.6-4.6-2.8-0.3 2.2-6.6-6.3-9.1-7.1-1.5-0.7 1.8 3.3
U.S. Milk Supply and Demand 2013 0.2-0.8 0.2 2.3 2.4-0.7 2.0 2.2 Dollars/cwt Average market price 1/ Class III 17.99 20.65 7.3 Class IV 19.05 21.35 3.1 All milk 21 22.80 5.1 1/ Prices are mid-point of published s; milk of average fat test. 14.8 12.1 14.0 Production Imports Commercial use Exports 2013 2014 Billion pounds 201.2 206.1 3.7 3.7 192.6 196.5 12.4 12.7 34
U.S. Dairy Product Prices Product prices Cheese Butter Nonfat dry milk Dry whey Class prices Class III Class IV All milk 2013 2014 Dollars/pound 1.77 2.01 1.55 1.80 1.71 1.85 0.59 0.63 Dollars/cwt 17.99 20.65 19.05 21.35 21 22.80 35 2013 6.3 9.1-0.1 5.7 13.8 16.5 8.3 6.5 7.3 3.1 5.1 14.8 12.1 14.0
U.S. Production Summary Crops and Products Wheat (Million bu) Rice (Million cwt) Corn (Million bu) Sorghum (Million bu) Barley (Million bu) Oats (Million bu) Soybeans (Million bu) Soybean oil (Million lbs) Soybean meal (Thousand s.t.) Cotton (Million bales) Sugar (Thousand s.t., raw value) 2,266 199.5 10,780 247 220 64 3,034 19,820 39,875 17.32 8,982 2,130 189.9 13,925 389 215 66 3,289 19,665 40,010 12.87 8,644-0.3-0.2-2.4-0.8-6.0-4.8 29.2 57.6-2.4 2.9 8.4-0.8 0.3-25.7-3.8 Milk (Billion lbs) 201.2 206.1 0.2 2.4 Meat (Billion lbs) Beef Pork Broilers Turkey Total Meat 25.72 23.20 37.83 5.80 93.34 24.57 22.76 38.50 5.68 92.29 0.1-2.6-0.5-0.4-0.9-4.5-1.9 1.8-2.2-1.1 36
Domestic Demand Summary Crops and Products Wheat (Million bu) Rice (Million cwt) Corn (Million bu) Sorghum (Million bu) Barley (Million bu) Oats (Million bu) Soybeans (Million bu) Soybean oil (Million lbs) Soybean meal (Thousand s.t.) Cotton (Million bales) Sugar (Thousand s.t., raw value) 1,406 118.2 10,379 188 214 174 1,779 18,686 29,031 3.50 11,752 1,254 124.0 11,700 205 215 165 1,780 18,450 29,200 3.60 12,051-2.3 3.3-8.9 6.5-0.5-0.5-0.7-10.8 4.9 12.7 8.9 0.3-5.3-1.3 0.6 2.9 2.5 Milk (Billion lbs) 192.6 196.5 0.2 2.0 Meat (Billion lbs) Beef Pork Broilers Turkey Total meat 25.49 19.11 30.17 5.05 80.68 24.52 18.85 30.71 4.98 79.91-0.1-1.7-0.5 0.5-0.6-3.8-1.3 1.8-1.5-0.9 37
U.S. Export Summary Crops and products Wheat (Million bu) Rice (Million cwt) Corn (Million bu) Sorghum (Million bu) Barley (Million bu) Soybeans (Million bu) Soybean oil (Million lbs) Soybean meal (Thousand s.t.) Cotton (Million bales) 1,007 107.1 731 76 9 1,320 2,164 11,114 13.03 1,175 97.0 1,750 180 12 1,580 1,550 11,000 10.70-3.0 7.7 12.5 2 3.3 3.3 0.9 16.6-9.4 139.3 136.8 35.5 19.7-28.4-1.0-17.9 Meat (Million lbs) Beef Pork Broilers Turkey Mature Chickens Total meat 2,583 4,992 7,364 758 108 15,812 2,515 4,850 7,525 710 100 15,709 3.3-4.6-0.3-6.6-9.1-1.5-2.6-2.8 2.2-6.3-7.1-0.7 38
Price Summary Crops and products Wheat ($/bu) Rice ($/cwt) Corn ($/bu) Soybeans ($/bu) Soybean oil ( /lb) Soybean meal ($/s.t.) Cotton ( /lb) Livestock Steers ($/cwt) Hogs ($/cwt) Broilers ( /lb) Turkeys ( /lb) Dairy products Cheese Butter Nonfat dry milk Dry whey Milk classes Class III ($/cwt) Class IV ($/cwt) All milk ($/cwt) 7.77 15.10 6.89 14.40 47.13 468.11 72.50 6.85 16.90 4.60 13.00 39.00 475.00 77.50 1.8 2.2 0.4 4.0 1.1 1.3-11.8 11.9-33.2-9.7-17.3 1.5 6.9 125.9 64.0 99.7 99.8 147.3 73.7 102.1 105.7 3.5 9.8 4.6 2.5 17.0 15.0 2.4 5.9 1.77 1.55 1.71 0.59 2.01 1.80 1.85 0.63 6.3 9.1-0.1 5.7 13.8 16.5 8.3 6.5 17.99 19.05 21 20.65 21.35 22.80 7.3 3.1 5.1 14.8 12.1 14.0 39