Adapting Water and Other Infrastructure to Climate Change Challenges David Satterthwaite, IIED
A billion urban dwellers Around one in seven of the world s population Invisible in official records Their agenda for water and infrastructure?
What this presentation covers The four urban water agendas Water and sanitation Bulk water supplies Waste water management Flood avoidance and protection In the context of climate change
For resilient infrastructure systems: REDUCE RISK FROM EXISTING HAZARDS withstand, adapt, quick and cheap recovery REDUCE RISK FOR PROJECTED/ANTICIPATED CHANGE IN HAZARDS AND EXPOSURE local contexts, global systems LARGER SYSTEM CHANGE (infrastructure systems tightly coupled) THAT ALSO REMOVES HAZARDS development, DRR, adaptation and mitigation
What this presentation does not cover Instead of adding to the 100s of presentations on resilience and water infrastructure FOCUS ON Why massive failure in infrastructure provision in low and most middle income nations WHEN Acting on the four water agendas is so much in the public good for everyone (industry, other businesses, population, health care, regional economy )
% of urban population with drinking water sources piped on premises in 2015 100 75 79 72 What about Habitat I? The MDGs? 50 25 32 33 0 World Developing countries' Least developed countries Sub Saharan Africa
West Bank and Gaza Nepal Burundi Kenya Niger Mauritania Eritrea Mali Guinea Zambia Benin Mongolia Malawi Indonesia Ghana Bangladesh Angola Afghanistan United Republic of Tanzania Rwanda Cameroon Burkina Faso Mozambique Chad Uganda Myanmar Democratic Republic of the Congo Madagascar Togo Haiti Sierra Leone Guinea Bissau Central African Republic Marshall Islands Nigeria % of urban population with water piped on premises, 2015 Data drawn from the tables at the back of WHO/UNICEF JMP 2015. 0 20 40 60 80 100
Jordan Malawi Central African Republic Montenegro Algeria Sierra Leone Papua New Guinea Madagascar Ghana Kenya Zambia Mongolia Haiti Albania Iraq Namibia Dominican Republic Zimbabwe Nigeria Democratic Republic of the Congo West Bank and Gaza Decline in % of urban population with water piped on premises 1990 2015 Data drawn from the tables at the back of WHO/UNICEF JMP 2015. 0 20 40 60 80 100
SANITATION AND DRAINS Most urban centres in sub Saharan Africa and much of Asia with hardly any or no sewers or covered drains Addis Ababa, Bamako, Benin, Brazzaville, Dar es Salaam, Douala, Freetown, Ibadan, Kaduna, Kinshasa, Kumasi, Lagos; Lubumbashi, Maiduguri, Mbuji Mayi, Port Harcourt, Yaounde, Zaria.
Lusaka Kaduna Lilongwe Ndjamena Bamako Lagos Brazzaville Niamey Kigali Cotonou Porto Novo Ouagadougou Kampala Kinshasa Kano Antananarivo Freetown Lome % of population with sewer connections to their home For most countries, even lower levels of provision outside the larger cities 0 20 40 60 80 100
Flooding and the city region How many cities facing more serious floods so many floods and their impacts unrecorded Desinventar: Impacts on infra/homes/livelihoods/assets/injuries Much of the impact on those living in informal settlements good flooding rental markets (Dar and Dhaka) what households and communities do Mostly not climate change (vast deficiencies in drainage and watershed management) but... Addressing river flooding usually needs good management in the region/upstream + cooperation with other jurisdictions
Water shortages Water shortages even where provision is so inadequate Dar es Salaam: very large deficit in water availability and most residents don t have water piped to their home Sao Paulo (wealthiest city in Latin America) and the water crisis So many cities with unsustainable groundwater use and/or needing water drawn from far away often with pumping+very high energy bills
Urbanization beyond government capacities Failures even in wealthy cities: Why? Speed of change; difficult for government institutions to keep up Lack of attention by national governments and international agencies to strengthening urban governments No effective measures to increase supply and reduce cost of housing plots so informal settlements (and infrastructure deficits) grow
Lack of pre conditions WHAT DROVE CHANGE IN HIGH INCOME NATIONS London, Manchester, New York. local democracy + civil society demands for accountability stronger local governments with investment capacity organized urban poor groups middle class and business accepting need for urban government acting in the public good regional cooperation possible..
Urban populations (millions) for 1950 and 2015 1000,0 1950 2015 750,0 500,0 250,0 0,0 Sub Saharan Africa North Africa Latin America & Caribbean China India Rest of Asia
Urbanization and economic development Changing pattern of large cities a picture of where private capital investment is concentrating
See this as spatial pattern of private investment Places where private capital choose to invest Again the speed of change in this
Urbanization and economic development Urbanization strongly associated with economic growth All successful economies urbanized All high income and most upper middle income countries predominantly urbanized
Low- and middle-income nations; changes in the proportion of the workforce and the economy in industry and services and level of urbanization, 1960-2005 100 90 80 70 sss % GDP from industry and services % labour force in industry and services Level of urbanization Percent 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Among the fastest growing cities (population, thousands) Urban Agglomeration Country 1950 2015 2030 Shenzhen China 3 10 749 12 673 Dongguan China 92 7 435 8 701 Abuja Nigeria 19 2 440 4 913 Heavy concentration of the world s largest cities in the world s largest economies Malappuram India 25 2 216 3 600 Zhuhai China 3 1 542 2 003 Cixi China 3 1 303 1 829 Suqian China 1 1 050 1 591 Yiwu China 3 1 080 1 520 Cancún Mexico 0 845 1 161
Annual average increment in population 1970 2015 (thous) Lagos 247 Delhi 230 Dhaka 217 Kinshasa 187 Karachi 183 Beijing 163 Shanghai 156 Mumbai (Bombay) 150 Al Qahirah (Cairo) 127 Dar es Salaam 125 Guangzhou 114 Luanda 109 Bangalore 104 Imagine you are head of infrastructure in these cities and this is the additional population needing infrastructure each year Give up: Lagos: 5% water, 8% sewer Kinshasa: less than 1% sewers How complicated it is to provide and manage drainage Drainage/flood protection requires control of land use changes
Speed of change in many cities Physical expansion (often into other jurisdictions) Demands from influential businesses Water consumption Waste water generation Volume and velocity of floods Loss of wetlands/water bodies Road vehicles.
How are cities viewed NEGATIVE Parasites on the economy and on rural areas Centres that concentrate and generate air and water pollution Driving climate change POSITIVE Leading innovation, social justice and economic success Centres with the healthiest populations and low levels of air pollution Centres that reconciles high quality of life with low emissions Difference between them effective local governance with strong democracy and the capacity to act in the (local and global) common good
Disconnect between what drives urbanization and governance Economic success does not automatically bring healthy cities sustainable cities inclusive cities Or cities where low income groups can find accommodation in formal housing OR CITIES ABLE TO ADAPT TO CLIMATE CHANGE
CLIMATE CHANGE 2014: IMPACTS, ADAPTATION, AND VULNERABILITY
CLIMATE CHANGE 2014: IMPACTS, ADAPTATION, AND VULNERABILITY Human Settlements Section Chapter 8: Urban Areas Chapter 9: Rural Areas Chapter 10: Key Economic Sectors and Services http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2/
CLIMATE CHANGE 2014: IMPACTS, ADAPTATION, AND VULNERABILITY What s New? Strong focus on urban areas (& being allowed detailed coverage) Scale of increase in literature Number of city case studies Key roles of local authorities Adaptation-development links
Climate change adaptation, water and urban centres Altered precipitation and run off patterns Often increasing flood water volumes and velocities Sea level rise and storm surges More extreme weather (storms; droughts, high temperatures) Where water is constrained, competition between urban and rural use
What provides an urban centre with capacity to adapt to climate change % population with risk reducing infrastructure (paved roads, covered drains, piped water.) &services(health care, emergency services, waste collection, rule of law, DRR) % population in legal housing (meeting health & safety regulations) on safe sites Local government investment capacity Built environment able to withstand extreme weather Institutions to make this happen (especially for low income groups) Government capacity to work & invest in/manage city region
The spectrum of urban adaptive capacity [Source: Developed from Table 8.2 in IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (2014), Working Group II.]
Climate change adaptation and resilience at 33 Gauden Road, London 24 hour a day drinkable water and sanitation Housing meeting health and safety standards Paved roads and storm and surface drains Regular solid waste collection & drainage maintenance Health care within walking distance Emergency services (fire, flood, injury..) Insurance for home and possessions Warning of storms Political system to complain to if needed
Urban centres with very little adaptive capacity % population with risk reducing infrastructure & services %in legal, safe, healthy housing Population Infrastructure deficit Local government investment capacity Disasters from extreme weather Examples Implications for CC adaptation Capacity to manage city region 0 30% served Most living in illegal, unsafe, unhealthy housing One billion (most urban centres in low income & many in middleincome nations) Enormous Much of built up area lacking infrastructure Very little or none Very common Dar es Salaam, Kinshasa, Karonga Difficult to see it happening Very limited
Urban centres with some bounce back /adaptive capacity % population with risk reducing infrastructure & services % in legal, safe, healthy housing Population Infrastructure deficit Local govt. investment capacity Disasters from extreme weather Examples Implications for CCadaptation Capacity to manage city region 30 70% served; 30 70% living in illegal, unsafe, unhealthy housing 1.5 billion Very large Some Common Nairobi, Mumbai Difficult & difficult politically Difficult
Urban centres with adequate bounce back adaptive capacity, if acted on % population with risk reducing infrastructure & services % living in legal, safe, healthy housing Population Infrastructure deficit Local government investment capacity Disasters from extreme weather Examples Implications for CC adaptation Capacity to manage city region 70 100% served; most of those inadequately served in informal settlements 1 billion (all urban centres in highincome and many in middle income nations) None /very little Good Uncommon Many cities in Latin America & Asia; all cities in high income nations Adaptive capacity but has to be acted on Always difficult to get consensus
Bamako (Mali) Rufisque Est (Senegal) Accra (Ghana) Dondo (Mozambique) Saint-Louis (Senegal) Dakar (Senegal) Ouagadougou (Burkina Faso) Kampala (Uganda) Dar es Salaam (Tanzania) Ampasy Nahampoana (Madagascar) Kigali (Rwanda) Maputo (Mozambique) Addis Ababa (Ethiopia) Iztapalapa (Mexico) Chengdu (China) Quillota (Chile) La Serena (Chile) San Antonio (Chile) Rosario (Argentina) Walvis Bay (Namibia) Johannesburg (South Africa) Varzea Paulista (Brazil) Cape Town (South Africa) Windhoek (Namibia) ethekwini (South Africa) Guarulhos (Brazil) Medellin (Colombia) Ilo (Peru) Cascais (Portugal) Canoas (Brazil) Sevilla (Spain) Belo Horizonte (Brazil) Porto Alegre (Brazil) US Local governments (average) Municipal annual budget per inhabitant (US$) 43 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Innovative cities Rosario Durban Iloilo, Manizales, Solo.. Different starting points: Environment, disaster risk, development Common features Competent local government Investment capacity Commitment to reach/work with low income groups Understand importance of DRR and of socioecological systems Most able to work in wider region
How well are urban centres worldwide doing in relation to adaptive capacity Moving to resilience Adaptive capacity if acted on Transformational adaptation?? Very little adaptive capacity Some capacity; needs to be enhanced
Key risks Adaptation issues & prospects Climate drivers Risk & potential for adaptation
KEY ISSUES How much adaptation can reduce risks But only with mitigation Strong adaptation ineffective at risk reduction with 4 degree temperature rise
Poverty reduction & universal provision of infra+services Disaster risk reduction The urban agendas Economic success Making this work for the billion in informal settlements Climate change adaptation Climate change mitigation
Poverty reduction & universal provision of infra+ services Disaster risk reduction Large overlaps in addressing risks, especially in low & lower middle income nations Some overlaps in what provides resilience For low income households For cities The urban agendas
Poverty reduction & universal provision of infra+services Climate change adaptation Disaster risk reduction The urban agendas Large overlaps especially in low and lower middle income nations ALL THREE CONCERNED WITH ADDRESSING LOCAL RISKS Importance of local citizen/civil society pressure & organization
Poverty reduction & universal provision of services Climate change adaptation Disaster risk reduction Climate change mitigation The urban agendas Not much overlap with climate change mitigation
Climate change mitigation Poverty reduction & universal provision of services Climate change adaptation Disaster risk reduction BUT in long term dangerous climate change has profound influence on the other three Date when even strong adaptation cannot keep down risks without mitigation Transformative adaptation The urban agendas
In conclusion Need urban governments able to act and invest in (or manage the investment in) risk reducing infrastructure and services Able to respond to and work with those poorly served or not served by water and waste water infrastructure Acccountable to their inhabitants Learn from cities that have made progress Structure climate finance & development finance to support this Fit within urban government commitments to the SDGs and the Paris Agreement
Sustainable Development Goals Good on climate change adaptation & mitigation But most goals+targets+indicators suggested for development, DRR, adaptation and mitigation depend on local governments Local governments need to take initiative Make their SDG commitments & targets Work with their low income population Get full recognition from national governments Urban governments the key players in implementing the SDGs and the Paris Agreement
Expenditure per capita local government (US$) Togo Burkina Faso Benin Pakistan Guatemala Paraguay Mongolia Costa Rica Malta Indonesia Moldova Albania Argentina Cyprus Greece Bulgaria Slovakia Lithuania Hungary Germany Austria Luxumbourg Italy Norway 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000