The Tasmanian Government s response to climate change The Draft Climate Change Strategy for Tasmania Alistair Scott Manager, Projects, Strategic Policy Department of Primary Industries and Water
Overview of presentation The Stern report - a wake-up call Tasmania s renewable energy base and greenhouse gas emissions What s been done to date A possible scenario? The Draft Climate Change Strategy for Tasmania Some key focus areas
Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change, 2006 What we do now can have only a limited effect on the climate over the next 40 or 50 years. On the other hand, what we do in the next 10 to 20 years can have a profound effect on the climate in the second half of this century and in the next.
Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change, 2006 Adaptation policy is crucial for dealing with the unavoidable impacts of climate change Adaptation is the only response available for the impacts that will occur over the next several decades before mitigation measures can have an effect. Unlike mitigation, adaptation will in most cases provide local benefits, realised without long lead times.
Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change, 2006 On current trends, average global temperatures could rise by 2-3 deg C within the next 50 years or so, leading to many severe impacts including more frequent droughts and floods. Sea level rise will increase coastal flooding, raise costs of coastal protection, lead to loss of wetlands and coastal erosion, and increase saltwater intrusion into surface and groundwater.
And Samuel L Clemons... It is one s human environment that makes climate. - Following the Equator, 1897
Tasmania s renewable energy base and greenhouse gas emissions Australia: 564 Mt in 2004, 1.4% of global greenhouse gas emissions Tasmania: 10.7 Mt in 2004, 1.9% of national total 22t per capita - compared to 28t nationally Tasmania s hydro and wind power base 3.5 3 3.2 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 0.5 Waste 2.1 Stationary Energy 1.4 Transport 0.002 Fugitive Emissions 1.1 Industrial Processes Land Use Change & Forestry 2.4 Agriculture
SURFACE TEMPERATURE TRENDS (ºC/10yrs) 1950-2001.. Source:BoM 2006
RAINFALL TRENDS 1950-2001 (MM/10YRS)... Source:BoM 2006
A possible scenario for 2050 A milder climate, more rain in the west, drier in the east Less water for irrigation and town water, esp. in the south and east Less stone fruit production but more wine growing opportunities Higher bushfire risk Increased coastal flooding and erosion Population pressures? Tourism opportunities?
What s been done to date 1999 Tasmanian Greenhouse Statement Improved energy management Wind power and natural gas Transport planning Better waste management Land management actions Plantations
DPIW Climate Change Project 2003-2006 Community information focus Information on changes in climate, sealevel rise and State emissions Coastal vulnerability to sea-level rise and erosion Sharples reports A foundation for further work
What we need now... Improved regional climate modelling and projections A better coordinated approach Limit greenhouse gas emissions Manage the risks and identify opportunities Focus our efforts on key sectors Work in partnership with Australian and local government, research bodies, industry and the community
Draft Climate Change Strategy for Tasmania Developed by the Climate Change IDC Vision environmental sustainability limited greenhouse gas emissions well prepared to maximise opportunities adapting to the negative impacts of climate change
Overview of the Draft Climate Change Strategy for Tasmania Recognises the need for early, strategic action Focuses on planning and adapting now Expanding renewable energy use Ongoing research into impacts and adaptation Identify opportunities Engaging the community
Government leadership on climate change policy Council of Australian Governments (COAG) National Action Plan on Climate Change Input into national policy and strategies COAG Climate Change Group Climate Change Adaptation Framework Continue to work with stakeholders Include in formal partnerships
Renewable energy and greenhouse gas emissions Ratifying the Kyoto Protocol National greenhouse gas emission targets National emissions trading scheme Expanding renewable energy use and innovation Energy efficiency in buildings and transport Waste energy opportunities and improved land practices
Planning now Emergency management strategies Coastal risk management project Planning resources for land and asset managers Incorporate climate change issues into planning schemes Incorporate into national parks planning and management
Improving our knowledge Improved regional climate change projections Improved sea-level rise projections - new coastal risk management project Model rainfall patterns and storage impacts Research into industry sector impacts, adaptation and opportunities Agriculture, fisheries and tourism Impacts on natural values, esp the TWWHA Health implications
Informing and involving - Tasmania Together benchmarks Living Environment Program - the Environment Challenge Regional information sessions Formal education opportunities and curriculum development Single web-based portal
Some key focus areas - Coastal vulnerability to sea-level rise and storm surges Water availability Agriculture - impacts and opportunities Marine ecosystems and resources Biodiversity impacts
Coastal vulnerability to sea-level rise and storm surges Increased inundation and erosion - Sharples reports on coastal vulnerability DPIW climate change and coastal risk management project - Improved projections - Identification of vulnerable built and natural assets - Risk management approach - Planning and management resources
Reduced rainfall and water availability A critical issue for - - councils - land managers - agriculture and other sectors A potential limiting factor for agriculture, tourism and settlements Greater bushfire risk Need for better modelling and longerterm projections
Biodiversity impacts Impacts of changed rainfall patterns and warmer temperatures weeds, pests and diseases greater bushfire risks vulnerable ecosystems eg. wetlands, alpine areas, some species Need for greater analysis of impacts and adaptation measures
Comments on the Draft Climate Change Strategy for Tasmania Comments close on 31 January 2007 Written comments to - Climate Change IDC DPIW PO Box 44, Hobart, 7000 Email: ClimateChangeStrategyComments@dpiw.tas.gov.au Website: www.dpiw.tas.gov.au