Research Report Cumbria Business Survey 2015/16 Executive Summary Prepared for: Cumbria Local Enterprise Partnership
Cumbria Business Survey 2015/16 Executive Summary Prepared for: Cumbria Local Enterprise Partnership Prepared by: June Wiseman, Director and Emma Parry, Associate Director, BMG Research Date: August 2016 Produced by BMG Research Bostock Marketing Group Ltd, 2016 www.bmgresearch.co.uk Project: 9808 Registered in England No. 2841970 Registered office: BMG Research Beech House Greenfield Crescent Edgbaston Birmingham B15 3BE UK Tel: +44 (0) 121 3336006 UK VAT Registration No. 580 6606 32 Birmingham Chamber of Commerce Member No. B4626 Market Research Society Company Partner British Quality Foundation Member The provision of Market Research Services in accordance with ISO 20252:2012 The provision of Market Research Services in accordance with ISO 9001:2008 The International Standard for Information Security Management ISO 27001:2013 Investors in People Standard - Certificate No. WMQC 0614 Interviewer Quality Control Scheme (IQCS) Member Company Registered under the Data Protection Act - Registration No. Z5081943 The BMG Research logo is a trade mark of Bostock Marketing Group Ltd
Table of Contents 1 Executive Summary... 1 1.1 Background... 1 1.2 Method... 1 1.3 Business/organisation profile... 2 1.4 Impact of 2015 Floods... 3 1.4.1 Extent of impact... 3 1.4.2 Nature of impact... 3 1.4.3 Financial impact... 3 1.4.4 Action taken... 4 1.4.5 Impact on trading... 4 1.4.6 Future concerns... 5 1.5 Trading and Investment... 5 1.5.1 Location of decision-making... 5 1.5.2 Markets served... 5 1.5.3 Trends... 6 1.5.4 Business constraints... 6 1.5.5 Short-term outlook... 6 1.6 Growth... 7 1.6.1 Employment growth... 7 1.6.2 Turnover growth... 7 1.6.3 Drivers of growth... 8 1.6.4 Growth indicators... 8 1.7 Skills Gaps and Shortages... 9 1.7.1 Skill gaps... 9 1.7.2 Skill shortages... 9 1.8 Training... 9 1.8.1 Provision of training... 9 1.8.2 Barriers to training... 9 1.9 Infrastructure developments in Cumbria... 10 1.9.1 Moorside Nuclear Plant development... 10 1.9.2 Other infrastructure developments... 10
2 Cumbria Business Survey 2015/16 Executive Summary
Executive Summary 1 Executive Summary 1.1 Background Cumbria Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP) is a private/public partnership which provides a strategic lead in activities contributing to the growth and vibrancy of the county s economy. Partners include Cumbria County Council, the District Councils, Cumbria Tourism, Cumbria Chamber of Commerce, Further & Higher Education Providers, the Lake District National Park and private sector businesses. Since the mid-1990s Cumbrian partners have commissioned regular surveys of local businesses on a range of business and employment issues in order to obtain updated information on the local economy. Areas of investigation covered in previous surveys and also included in 2015/16 are: Trading and investment Skills gaps and shortages Innovation and growth Obtaining finance Training provision The 2015/16 Business Survey originally also included questions regarding awareness of, the likely response to and perceived possible impact of prospective infrastructure developments in Cumbria. However, during fieldwork in December 2015, extreme weather conditions resulted in significant flooding in parts of Cumbria and the survey was halted. It was re-launched with a revised questionnaire in March 2016. New questions were included that covered the extent and nature of businesses experience of the flooding that resulted from the extreme weather conditions in December 2015 and the questions regarding prospective infrastructure developments, obtaining finance and innovation were removed to accommodate them. The 2015/16 Business Survey was conducted by BMG Research Ltd, which also carried out similar surveys in 1998, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2013. 1.2 Method Telephone interviews, with an average interview length of about 25 minutes, were conducted with 2,186 employers in November and December 2015 and March, April and May 2016. In November and December 2015, 778 interviews were conducted and this included 96 interviews with businesses that were located in the areas subsequently identified as having been directly affected by flooding. In March, April and May 2016, 1,486 interviews were conducted and this included 78 interviews with businesses that participated in November and December 2015 and were located in the designated flood area. Businesses that were re-interviewed in March, April and May 2016 are only included in the data once i.e. relating to their second interview. Respondents included directors or proprietors or other senior managers with knowledge of the issues investigated. 1
Cumbria Business Survey 2015/16 Executive Summary The 2016 survey included both private and public sector organisations, which reflected the 2013 survey scope. Data reported is related to the establishment at which the respondent was based. In the case of multi-site organisations, this could be a headquarters (provided that the HQ was in Cumbria) or a branch (depending on the outcome of the survey s random sampling processes). A quota sample was designed, based on the local economy s sectors (SIC 2007), its distribution of workplaces of different sizes (in terms of their employment), and Local Authority Districts. The quotas for sector and size were interlocking. Quotas by district were independent of the sector and size quotas. The survey data has been weighted (using information about the local economy from the Office for National Statistics IDBR data) so that the findings are fully representative of Cumbria s employers. 1.3 Business/organisation profile The agriculture, forestry and fishing industry accounts for the largest proportion of businesses and organisations within Cumbria (18%) while slightly fewer (16%) operate within the wholesale and retail sector. The majority of businesses and organisations (83%) employ fewer than 10 staff. This includes 30% of all businesses or organisations that do not have any employees. Just 6% of all businesses and organisations employ 25 or more staff, which increases to 30% of businesses or organisations in the education sector. Just over three-quarters of businesses and organisations (77%) operate from a single site. This increases to 80% of private sector businesses. The majority of businesses and organisations (87%) operate within the private sector. Around one in ten of all businesses or organisations (9%) are a charity/voluntary organisation, whilst 2% are a local government-financed body and 1% a central government-financed body. Seven in ten private sector businesses in Cumbria (70%) have been established for more than ten years. Of these, most have been established for more than twenty years (43% of all private sector businesses). Eight per cent of private sector businesses in Cumbria have been established for less than four years. South Lakeland is home to a quarter of businesses and organisations within Cumbria (26%), with around one in five each based in Allerdale (19%) and Carlisle (19%). One in seven is based in Eden district (14%), while one in eight is in Copeland (12%) and one in ten in Barrow-in-Furness (10%). Two-thirds of businesses are located in a rural area (66%), varying from rural hamlets and sparsely populated areas (around one in five) to a rural town in a more populated area (also around one in five). A third of businesses is located in an urban city and town. 2
Executive Summary 1.4 Impact of 2015 Floods 1.4.1 Extent of impact Two-thirds of businesses (65%) across the whole of Cumbria suffered a negative impact of the storm and floods that were experienced in December 2015. Three in ten (30%) reported restricted access to their business premises, with slightly fewer (27%) reporting a reduction in passing trade and fewer customers. Actual flooding of business premises was less common but still experienced by one in eight businesses across Cumbria (13%) but this increased to two in five (41%) in the EA flood extent areas. Within the EA flood extent areas, more than four-fifths of businesses (86%) experienced a negative impact of some description. The sectors most likely to have been affected included the service industries of accommodation and food; wholesale and retail distribution and, specifically, the visitor economy sectors, which includes accommodation and food services; travel agencies/tour operators and arts, entertainment and recreation businesses (including museums and arts and cultural facilities). A positive effect, such as an increase in new orders and sales, was experienced by one in nine businesses (11%; 12% in the EA flood extent areas) with construction businesses most likely to benefit from this impact (30%). 1.4.2 Nature of impact Where businesses reported structural damage to their premises, half (50%) reported the problems as on-going when interviewed between 4 and 6 months after the event. Other issues that were continuing to cause problems or to be unresolved for significant minorities of businesses suffering them, included lost/damaged machinery/equipment (41% reported this as an on-going problem); contaminated land (38%) and a reduction in passing trade/fewer customers (36%). Relatively short-lived problems experienced included staff being unable to go into work (54% reporting this as an issue experienced this for a few days or less); loss of services (58%); flooded premises (48%); restricted access to business premises (42%); flooded land (40%) and late or undelivered supplies (38%). 1.4.3 Financial impact Of the 65% of businesses suffering a negative impact of the storms and flooding; three in five (60%) reported a financial loss or additional costs as a result. This equates to around two in five businesses in Cumbria and increases to nearly two in three businesses in the EA flood extent areas. The mean financial loss/cost incurred to date (at the time of the interview) is calculated as 35,759, rising to 84,455 across the EA flood extent areas. Additional costs were expected by around one in four businesses that experienced a negative impact and their projected further costs increase the mean financial loss/cost that is likely to be incurred to 54,608, rising to 99,496 in the EA flood extent areas. 3
Cumbria Business Survey 2015/16 Executive Summary Financial loss due to a reduction in trade was most prevalent, with 74% of those able to provide an estimate attributing their loss to this and the majority of these (42% of all those able to provide an estimate) attributing all their financial losses to a loss of trade. Just over half of those suffering financially from the impact of the storms and flooding (54%) incurred some costs as a result of physical damage with 20% of those reporting some financial loss/cost attributing all their costs to this. Just over a quarter of businesses suffering financially (27%) were able to recover at least some of their costs/losses from insurance or other sources. This rose to nearly half of businesses in the EA flood extent areas (48%). There were also financial gains as a result of increases in orders/sales, with more than half of those reporting some gains (and able to provide an estimate) (55%) reporting gains of up to 5,000. The mean amount was 35,571, rising to 72,090 across production/construction sectors. 1.4.4 Action taken More than two in five businesses that experienced a problem as a result of the storm and floods (45%) had taken one or more actions as a result. They were most likely to increase promotion/marketing activity (20%) and/or apply for a grant of some sort (15%). Half of those that applied for a grant of some sort (50%; 8% of those that experienced any problems) applied for a business recovery grant from the Cumbria Business Growth Hub/Cumbria Chamber of Commerce. One in eight businesses that experienced a negative impact of the storm and flooding (13%) sought business advice, rising to 23% of those in the EA flood extent areas. This business advice was most likely to have been sought from the Cumbria Business Growth Hub/Cumbria Chamber of Commerce (31%). 1.4.5 Impact on trading One in eight businesses (12%) was still trading on a limited basis at the time of interview. This proportion was higher amongst those in the EA flood extent areas (16%) and amongst those whose premises had flooded (25%). The main issues that are affecting businesses abilities to get back to full trading include a downturn in trade/customers; the negative image of Cumbria following the floods and infrastructure issues. Most expect to be fully trading again in the next six months, but one in eight anticipate limited trading for at least a further year and one business expects to close. A third of businesses (36%) were able to avoid a period of limited trading because they were able to take action quickly to protect property and stock, while a fifth of those that remained fully trading (21%) had taken previous preventative/resilience measures. Most businesses that were able to get back to full trading after a period of limited trading were able to do so, they said, because the impact was limited anyway (81%), while around half (51%) took action quickly to protect property/stock and just over a fifth (22%) were helped by the local community. 4
Executive Summary 1.4.6 Future concerns More than a quarter of all businesses anticipate longer term impacts on the local economy as a result of fewer visitors to the area (28%). This view is held by a higher proportion of businesses than average in the Lake District National Park (38%) and South Lakeland (33%). One in eight businesses (13%) expects that infrastructure repairs will take longer than currently planned or will not be fully completed (the A591 had not re-opened at the time of the survey). Four in five businesses (80%) considers a positive PR and advertising campaign to represent Cumbria favourably as essential/very important going forward and most of the remainder (12% of all) considers it quite important. When asked how concerned they were about the risk of storms and flooding in the future; the level of future insurance premiums; and revisions to insurance policy terms and conditions, views were relatively evenly split between those that were concerned and those that were not. Around one in five were very concerned about each and this rose to one in three in the EA flood extent areas, with similar proportions quite concerned. 1.5 Trading and Investment 1.5.1 Location of decision-making The majority of decision-making within Cumbria s businesses is made at the Cumbrian site. This is most likely to be the case with regard to recruitment (92% of all businesses; 65% of multi-site businesses) and least likely to be the case with regard to investment (86%; 41% of multi-site businesses). 1.5.2 Markets served Private sector businesses continue to be largely focused on the local market including visitors to Cumbria. There has been little change since 2013. Around three-quarters of businesses (73%) sell products or services to domestic/individual customers; around two-fifths (41%) to tourists visiting Cumbria; two-thirds (65%) to private sector businesses; a third to public sector organisations (35%) and one in six (17%) to organisations within the nuclear industry. In terms of geographic markets, there is a trend away from concentration on the local market and a move towards supplying markets further afield. One in three private sector businesses (32%) report all their sales in Cumbria now, compared with nearly half (46%) five years ago. Just over one in five private sector businesses in Cumbria exports (22%); 15% of all reported sales within the EU; 11% outside the EU. On average, 70% of sales, by value, are made within Cumbria. The Cumbria market is particularly important to businesses in Barrow in Furness (80%) and Allerdale (77%) and to construction businesses (83%) and those in the health services sector (89%). 5
Cumbria Business Survey 2015/16 Executive Summary 1.5.3 Trends A significant minority of private sector businesses in Cumbria report rising staff costs in the last 12 months (46%). A third report rising energy and raw material prices (35% and 34% respectively). Fewer, however, report increasing output and domestic orders (24% and 22% respectively). As one would expect given the greater prevalence of rising costs compared to rising output and orders, businesses are more likely to have reported lower than higher profit margins in the last 12 months (34%, compared with 17%). There is more likely to have been an increase in investment than a decrease in the last 12 months (20% versus 13%). The propensity to have increased investment is linked to business size; 38% of businesses with 25+ employees; 20% of those with between 1 and 9 employees. A third of Growers (34%) businesses that have reported employment or turnover growth of 5% or more in the last 12 months reported increasing investment in the last year, compared with half that proportion amongst Shrinkers businesses that have reported declining employment or turnover. Businesses are optimistic about the next 12 months, with a third anticipating an increase in domestic orders (36%) and profit margins (33%). However, higher proportions anticipate increasing staff costs (50%); energy prices (39%) and raw material prices (37%). 1.5.4 Business constraints When asked to consider whether a range of potential issues were significant barriers to their business performance and efficiency, the economy, regulations, access to or speed of broadband, taxation, VAT and cash flow featured strongly and above local issues such as planning, the transport infrastructure and skills issues. Around a third of private sector businesses cited issues relating to: the local road network and road access, the way the local planning and development control system operates, the availability of people able to do the job, availability of affordable housing in the area and the availability of suitable bus services as significant barriers to performance and efficiency. The issues relating to local infrastructure were more likely to be mentioned as barriers to business performance and efficiency by businesses that have experienced negative impacts from the storm and flooding. Businesses identified as Growers were more likely to feel held back by a lack of availability of people able to do the job. By sector, businesses in the accommodation and food services sector are the most likely to have increased investment, while those in the construction and arts and recreation sectors are most likely to have reduced levels of investment. 1.5.5 Short-term outlook Looking ahead to the next 12 months, there is considerable optimism, with around a third of private sector businesses anticipating higher levels of domestic orders, profit margins and cash in the business, while a similar proportion, but less positively, expects the prices charged to customers to increase. Fewer businesses (around a quarter) anticipate an increase in investment levels. 6
Executive Summary Of most significance, and underlying the trend towards higher prices, is the fact that at least half of all private sector businesses expect the trend for higher energy and raw material prices to continue, while more than two-fifths anticipate an increase in staff costs; the latter reflecting the proportion that reported increases in staff costs in the last 12 months, suggesting that recent experience is driving future expectations. 1.6 Growth 1.6.1 Employment growth Four-fifths of all businesses and organisations (80%) reported no change in the size of their workforce since the same time last year. One in eight (12%) had increased the size of their workforce and a lower proportion (9%) had reduced the number of staff employed. The likelihood of employment growth in excess of 20% was significantly more likely than average in businesses with fewer than 25 employees (13%, compared with an average of 8%). Increases in employment are most likely to have been experienced within manufacturing and education businesses/organisations, while decreases are most likely to have been experienced within wholesale and retail and accommodation and food services. It can be estimated 1 that employers took on around 7,700 new staff in the last 12 months, while shedding around 6,300 jobs. The net increase in employment is estimated at around 1,400 staff. The biggest gains are to be found within the districts of South Lakeland (+850 staff approximately) and Carlisle (+750 staff approximately), within larger businesses and organisations (+1,400 within 100+ employers) and within construction (+600 staff approximately). There have also been significant gains within primary industries and health services. There are significant net losses within the districts of Copeland (-700 staff approximately) and Eden (-170 staff approximately) and within manufacturing (-170 staff approximately) and professional, scientific and technical services (-140 staff approximately). 1.6.2 Turnover growth A quarter of private sector businesses that have been trading for at least a year (25%) reported an increase in their turnover in the last year. As in 2013, this is closely matched by the quarter (26%) reporting a decrease. The findings suggest that around 5,000 businesses experienced turnover growth in the last 12 months, while around 5,200 experienced decline. Businesses in South Lakeland are most likely to have benefited from turnover growth rather than shrinkage (around 1,500 compared with around 1,300, respectively). By sector, the largest positive net balances where the number of businesses that have experienced turnover growth exceeds the number that have experienced decline are 1 This data is based on the survey data, grossed up to represent the business population and number of employees within the business population. 7
Cumbria Business Survey 2015/16 Executive Summary apparent within professional, scientific and technical services (+390 approximately), business services (+280) and construction (+230 approximately). Within primary industries there has been significant contraction of turnover, with around 1,700 businesses reporting decline in turnover, compared with just 370 reporting an increase. Businesses without employees are significantly more likely to have seen a decline in their turnover than growth in the last year (around 1,500 compared with around 1,600, respectively). 1.6.3 Drivers of growth When asked about the drivers of this growth, they were most likely to stipulate an improvement in demand in their markets (74%), with better work organisation (55%) and stronger marketing (50%) also important factors. Around two-thirds of private sector businesses aim to grow their output, sales turnover or employment in the next two to three years (69%), which is a similar figure to that reported in 2013 (68%). Around a quarter (27%) aims to grow in all of these ways. The factors that businesses expect to drive future growth are very similar to those that have been identified as having driven recent growth, although improving business efficiency/productivity is the most frequently selected (77% of businesses aiming for growth), above that of growth in demand and/or expansion of markets (73%). While, also strongly featuring as a driver of future growth is competitive pricing (73%). 1.6.4 Growth indicators In terms of growth, three broad groups were identified, based on survey responses. These were: Growers ; businesses and organisations that have increased the number of staff employed by 5% or more or that have increased turnover by 5% or more in the last year: Stable ; businesses and organisations that have the same number of staff and same level of turnover as 12 months ago, or that have seen an increase or decrease that is at less than 5%: Shrinkers ; businesses and organisations that have reduced the number of staff employed by 5% or more or that report a decrease in turnover of 5% or more in the last year but have not also reported a similar size increase in employment or turnover. In addition, a sub-set of Growers, called High growers was identified. These businesses and organisations have increased the number of staff employed or increased their turnover by more than 20% in the last year. Growers account for 34% of all businesses and organisations (27% in 2013) and this group includes 10% of all that are High growers (9% in 2013) Shrinkers account for 22% of all businesses and organisations (19% in 2013). The remaining 43% are classified as Stable (54% in 2013). Young businesses (those established less than 4 years) are more likely than average to be Growers (41%), while three in ten exporters are Growers (30%). Growers are significantly more likely than average to have reported upward trends in most areas of business activity, particularly output, but with the exception of raw materials and energy prices, for which Shrinkers are more likely to have reported an increase. 8
Executive Summary 1.7 Skills Gaps and Shortages 1.7.1 Skill gaps Fourteen per cent of businesses with employees in Cumbria identify skill gaps in their business or organisation, which is the same proportion as in 2013. This proportion increases to 24% of those with 25 or more employees. Employers are most likely to identify skill gaps in skilled trade occupations and low skilled elementary administration and service occupations. The most frequently cited skills lacking within workforces are technical and practical skills and advanced IT or software skills. 1.7.2 Skill shortages A third of businesses (32%) had tried to recruit staff in the last 12 months and more than half of these (53%; 17% of all businesses) have experienced some difficulties filling job vacancies. Echoing where skill gaps have been reported, hard-to-fill vacancies are most likely to have been reported for skilled trades and elementary administration and service occupations. Businesses within the varied sectors of construction, accommodation and food services and professional, scientific and technical services are more likely than average to report recruitment difficulties. The main causes of hard-to-fill vacancies have been the low number of applicants, particularly of those with the required skills, and including a lack of interest in the jobs advertised and remote locations of workplaces accompanied by poor public transport. 1.8 Training 1.8.1 Provision of training Half of businesses and organisations in Cumbria (51%) have arranged or funded any training or development for employees at their site in the last year. Around two-fifths have arranged or funded any off-the-job training (38%) and/or on-the-job training (41%). Business size is the key determinant of training practice with around nine in ten businesses and organisations with 10 or more staff having funded or arranged training in the last year (87%), rising to 95% of those with 100 or more staff. Training is most prevalent within public services, education and health service sectors (94%, 82% and 91% respectively). It is least prevalent within primary industries (34%) and construction (46%). Growers are significantly more likely than average to have arranged or funded training (65%), with Shrinkers significantly less likely to have done so (44%). 1.8.2 Barriers to training The most frequently cited barrier to the provision of training amongst those that do not train is a perceived lack of need (14%), while amongst those that train, the main barrier to providing more training is that no more money is available for training (15%). 9
Cumbria Business Survey 2015/16 Executive Summary 1.9 Infrastructure developments in Cumbria 1.9.1 Moorside Nuclear Plant development Around one in five businesses (19%) sell or provide services to organisations in the nuclear industry, which suggests that the development at Moorside will have a significant impact on the local economy. The majority of businesses and organisations (82%) were aware of the Moorside Nuclear Plant development prior to taking part in the survey. A quarter of all (24%) consider themselves quite/very knowledgeable about it. Awareness and knowledge of the plans is greatest in the district of Copeland (98% aware; 57% quite/very knowledgeable). One in six businesses and organisations (17%) thought it likely that their business would pursue supply chain opportunities from the Moorside development, increasing to 29% within the district of Copeland. Most businesses and organisations that consider it likely or are undecided with regard to pursuing such supply chain opportunities think some support in doing so would be helpful (89% specify any support). This is most likely to be with regard to information about goods and services required and how to access these opportunities (75%) and support to help build linkages with potential partners and suppliers (71%). In terms of the impact of the Moorside nuclear development on businesses and organisations, the most positive anticipated is the increase in local expenditure resulting from incoming construction workers, while the most negative impact is likely to be from the volume of traffic during construction and this is more pronounced in the district of Copeland. When it comes to the development s impact on the local economy, the views of businesses and organisations are very positive. Very few anticipate a negative impact. Around three-quarters of respondents anticipate positive change to the extent of new job opportunities, the retention of young people locally as a result of these new opportunities and a benefit to the economy as a result of the expenditure of workers and suppliers. In contrast, the most frequently mentioned negative impacts are with regard to potential increases in house prices and the cost of general goods and services locally due to greater demand. Between one in four and one in five anticipate this. 1.9.2 Other infrastructure developments In terms of other infrastructure developments in Cumbria, 70% of respondents have heard of the Walney Off-shore Wind farm; 49% have heard of the BAe Systems expansion; 33% have heard of the West Cumbria Tidal Lagoon; 28% of the West Cumbria Mining project and 25% of the West Cumbria Water Supply project. Respondents are most knowledgeable about Walney Off-shore Wind farm (14% are quite/very knowledgeable) and the BAe Systems expansion (11%). On the whole, most of those that are aware of these projects have little knowledge of them. More than half of respondents that have heard of any of these infrastructure developments (53%) do not anticipate any impact from them on their business. The 10
Executive Summary majority of the remainder (38% of all those aware of any) anticipate a positive impact. This increases to more than half of respondents in Barrow in Furness (53%) and Copeland (51%). For more information about the 2015/16 Business Survey, please contact: Ginny Murphy Senior Analyst Cumbria County Council / Cumbria LEP Tel: 07826 859026 Email: ginny.murphy@cumbria.gov.uk A copy of the full report can be downloaded from the Cumbria Intelligence Observatory website here: http://www.cumbriaobservatory.org.uk/economy/cumbriabusinesssurveys.asp 11
With more than 25 years experience, BMG Research has established a strong reputation for delivering high quality research and consultancy. BMG serves both the public and the private sector, providing market and customer insight which is vital in the development of plans, the support of campaigns and the evaluation of performance. Innovation and development is very much at the heart of our business, and considerable attention is paid to the utilisation of the most up to date technologies and information systems to ensure that market and customer intelligence is widely shared.