REDD, LULUCF and CDM Recent International Developments Dr. Pham Manh Cuong Operational REDD Focal Point Department of Forestry (DOF) Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) With the contribution of colleagues from UNDP and WB FCPF Overview 1. The UNFCCC and the Kyoto protocol 2. Roles of agriculture and forestry in climate change 3. REDD and Dynamics of international Climate Negotiations
I. The UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol 1.1 Climate change and its effects Global warming is caused by an excess of heat-trapping gases, first and foremost CO 2, methane and nitrous oxides - mainly result from the burning of fossil fuels, forest, from agriculture and from waste dumps; The gases prevent the sun s s energy from radiating back into space after it has reached the surface of the earth, much like the glass of a greenhouse; The effects of global climate change are becoming ever more evident; Scientists believe that climate change is already causing more frequent occurrences of natural disasters i.e. drought, hurricanes, flooding, forest fires, etc.; Among the long-term impacts are rising sea levels and damage to crops which can lead to wide-spread famine; Developing countries are among the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change;
1.2 The UNFCCC In 1992, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was adopted as the basis for a global response to the problem 192 Parties; The ultimate objective of the UNFCCC is to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that will prevent dangerous human interference with the climate system - to reduce the impact of climate change on the human and natural environment; The Convention is also designed to assist countries in adapting to the inevitable effects of climate change by development techniques to increase resilience to climate change impacts and to exchange the best practices; The UNFCCC is a treaty organization: it can set binding agreements between countries; The UNFCCC is supported by a number of subsidiary bodies for scientific and technological advice to the policy makers. 1.3 The Kyoto Protocol The Kyoto Protocol was adopted at the COP3 in Kyoto, Japan, on 11 Dec 1997 and it entered into force on 16 Feb. 2005 183 Parties; The Protocol shares the objective and institutions of the Convention: the Convention encouraged industrialized countries to stabilize GHG emissions, the Protocol commits them to do so; The detailed rules for its implementation were adopted at COP 7 in Marrakesh in 2001 - called the Marrakesh Accords ; The first agreement within the UNFCCC that sets binding emission reduction targets for industrialized countries. 37 industrialized countries and the EC have committed to reducing their emissions by an average of 5 percent by 2012 against 1990 levels; Three mechanisms to offset emissions in industrialized countries: Emissions Trading known as the carbon market Joint Implementation (with developed countries) Clean Development Mechanism (with developing countries) project-based The first Kyoto Protocol commitment expires at the end of 2012 and negotiations are ongoing for a new climate agreement
1.4 The Clean Development Mechanism Industrialized countries must first and foremost take domestic action against climate change; The Protocol also allows them to meet their emission reduction commitments abroad through so-called market-based mechanisms through investment in SD projects that reduce emissions in developing countries; The CDM enabled developing nations to participate in the UNFCCC by selling emissions credits, termed certified emissions reductions (CERs), to parties with commitments to reduce their GHG; These CERs were to be subject to a process of certification and verification by the U.N. accrediting body under the treaty before sale; It was expected that the CDM would create sustainable development benefits for developing nations; 1.4 Afforestation / Reforestation CDM A/R CDM is an option for forestry under the CDM; Afforestation and reforestation were eligible on a project basis: Land that did not have forest since at least 1990 Limited potential for other uses Limited impact on local communities Transfer of knowledge and technology Demonstration of additionality and permanence Assessment of leakage
1.5 Expiration and shortcomings Results: Political commitments and implementation, a carbon market and investment; Shortcomings: A/R CDM has received much criticism: The process is too bureaucratic and very costly Scope is limited Only large projects qualify The process is mostly driven by the sponsor, not by the host country As a result only a few project proposals have been submitted and only one project has been registered with the UNFCCC Guangxi Watershed management project China The Kyoto Protocol expires at the end of 2012 and negotiations are ongoing for a new climate agreement; II. Roles of Agriculture and Forestry in Climate Change
1.1 Roles of Agriculture and forests Forestry and agriculture is an important source of anthropogenic GHG emissions; Area of global forests was less than 4 billion ha in 2005, 36% of which h were primary forest; Forests are significant for national economies: timber, NTFP and providing environmental services: biodiversity, water regulation, soil erosion prevention, etc.; Forests provide safety nets for vulnerable individuals and communities; Forests are important for energy: about 80% of primary energy need meets from fuelwood; 1.2 Global forests and climate change Forests present a significant global carbon stock: 283 Gt of carbon in living biomass, 38 Gt in dead wood and 317 Gt on soils and litter; Total carbon content of forests was 638 Gt for 2005; A gross terrestrial uptake of carbon is estimated at 2.4 Gt/year, a large part of it is sequestration by forests; Estimated emissions from deforestation in the 1990s was at 5.8Gt CO2/yr and accounted for 20% of annual GHG emission (IPPC 2007); All emissions from the land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) are over 30% total t GHG emissions; i
Emissions, Absorptions of CO from 2 Select Forestry Activities Source: EarthTrends, 2008; using data from Baumert et.al., 2005 Carbon Lost to the Atmosphere by Selected Forest Conversions or Uses Source: Houghton, 2005
1.2 What did studies and reviews say? A 2006 study commissioned by the U.K. Treasury has concluded that reducing deforestation offers a major opportunity to reduce emissions at a relatively low cost. The study found that in 8 countries responsible for 70 percent of emissions from land use, just 1.5 acres of forest land could be worth as much as $25,000 in terms of carbon sequestration at a carbon price of $35-$50. The returns from this same land would range form $2 for pastoral use, to over $1,000 for soy and palm oil conversion and one-time returns of $236 to $1,035 from timber sales; The same study states that, if no action is taken to reduce our emissions, each ton of carbon dioxide emitted will cause $85 worth of damage to the world s economy. 1.2 What did studies and reviews say? Planting new forests is a useful mitigation tool BUT preserving existing natural forests presents a much larger opportunity in terms of the sheer magnitude of emissions; Reducing deforestation and forest degradation may be a relatively inexpensive climate change mitigation option, comparing favorably with the costs of lowering emissions in other sectors; Avoided deforestation among the cheapest options for emissions mitigation, although this remains uncertain; Reducing emissions from avoided deforestation and LUCC received far less attention and funding;
1.2 What did studies and reviews say? Climate change researchers Brent Sohngen & Robert H. Beach have found that for an average price of $27.25 per ton of carbon dioxide in the emissions exchange market deforestation can potentially be virtually eliminated. These researchers have concluded that there is a large potential for reduced deforestation to help mitigate the costs of cutting greenhouse gas emissions; According to Sohngen and Bach, efforts to reduce global deforestation could result in a cumulative gain of 76 billion tons of carbon and just over 1 billion acres in additional forests; Different points of view from countries!!! Influential Reviews: Stern, Garnaut and Elliasch 1.2 What did studies and reviews say? Forest protection, restoration and sustainable forest management is a necessary and important part of any comprehensive approach to decreasing atmospheric CO2 levels and reducing the impacts of climate change; LULUCF questions were too complex and a lack of scientific evidence increased the difficulties during the CC negotiations.
1.3 Shortcomings of current Progs. Emissions from tropical deforestation and forest degradation were excluded from the Kyoto protocol in 1997. Reasons: Many believed that the challenges and uncertainties inherent to quantifying forest sector emissions would weaken the overall strength of the climate regime; Developing countries worried R-deforestation would threaten their sovereignty over land use decisions; A/R CDM has not greatly favored forestry projects--only 01 afforestation project has been approved of the CDM's 1,016 projects to date (UNFCCC, 2008); CERs coming from A/R CDM projects are excluded of the EU Emissions Trade Scheme (EU ETS) - implies a considerable constraint in market opportunities for mitigation activities from the forestry sector in developing countries; III. Recent Development on REDD, LULUCF and CDM
3.1 Dynamics of International Climate Negotiations The Kyoto 1997 the Marrakesh Accord 2001 recent reviews; LULUCF will play a key role in any post-2012 international climate change regime emerging from the current negotiating processes under the UNFCCC; COP11 (2005, in Montreal) initiated a 2-year examination process on Reducing Emission from Deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries (REDD); COP 13 (December 2007, in Bali) adopted the Bali Action Plan that included Road map to incorporating REDD in the future global l climate protection ti regime; Cop 14 (Dec 2008, in Poznan): no significant development 3.1 International development Many workshops have been taken place to discuss on establishing financial incentives for stopping deforestation, through a global forest carbon market or other mechanism, is a win-win-win good for the climate, good for biodiversity and good for local communities; At the Club de Madrid's General Assembly in Rotterdam, 12 Nov. 2008, UNFCCC Executive Secretary said: "Copenhagen 2009 needs to set a clear overall direction for future global climate change action that rings in a global green revolution. Yvo de Boer pointed out that in the context of the financial crisis, Copenhagen 2009 represents an opportunity to establish a framework for a new green deal that will help put the economy back on its feet. He also highlighted the political essentials needed for an ambitious agreed outcome in Copenhagen.;
3.1 International development The negotiations on strengthened international climate change action under the Bali Road Map are taking place in a difficult and complicated international environment; The global financial crisis has led some to argue that moving the world to a global low-emissions economy is too costly and that climate change abatement should be put on the backburner until the credit crunch is over; Thus the road is long to an inclusion of significant REDD mechanisms into a new climate treaty; 3.1 International development During 2008, Parties focused on gathering ideas, clarifying their positions and presenting initial proposals on many issues. Proposals included possible approaches to boost adaptation, mitigation and the types of institutions that are needed to ensure progress on mitigation; Developing countries have clearly indicated that they are willing to do more, provided they get financial and technological support for these extra efforts; At the Accra Climate Change Talks in August, Parties agreed to compile proposals into a document, which could serve as a first version of a negotiating text at the upcoming UN Climate Change Conference in Poznan;
3.2 COP15 Results COP15 (Dec 2009, in Copenhagen): Copenhagen Accord and SBSTA Decision; Copenhagen Accord: We recognize the crucial role of reducing emission from deforestation and forest degradation and the need to enhance removals of greenhouse gas emission by forests and agree on the need to provide positive incentives to such actions through the immediate establishment of a mechanism including REDD-plus, to enable the mobilization of financial resources from developed countries COP Decision on REDD+ Methodological guidance for activities relating to R, the role of conservation, SM of forest and enhancement of forest C stock in developing countries Requests developing country parties take guidance into account for activities relating to decision 2/CP.13 To establish, according to national circumstances and capacities, robust and transparent national forest monitoring system and, if appropriate, sub national systems as part of national system Recognizes that further work may need to be undertaken by IPCC in accordance with any relevant decisions by COP
Financial commitments for the REDD+ Six developed countries (Australia, Japan, France, Norway, UK and US) committed to contribute US$3.5 for the REDD+ implementation for period from 2010 2012 3.3 International Programs and Initiatives The Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF) managed by the World Bank; The United Nations Collaborative Programme on reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (UN- REDD Programme)