Facts and Figures Warehouse/Logistics Rhine-Main 2017
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Market Environment Population development Frankfurt/Rhine-Main 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 11.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 Frankfurt Wiesbaden Mainz Darmstadt Offenbach Inhabitants (09/2017): Frankfurt 736,222 (06/2017) / Wiesbaden 290,306 / Mainz 213,913 / Darmstadt 159,529 / Offenbach 134,914 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Sep 17 Unemployment rate Frankfurt/Rhine-Main Frankfurt Wiesbaden Mainz Darmstadt Offenbach Germany Unemployment rate (12/2017): Frankfurt 5.6 / Wiesbaden 7.2 / Mainz 5.6 / Darmstadt 5.7 / Offenbach 9.3 / Germany 5.3 12.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Dec 17 Purchasing power per capita Frankfurt/Rhine-Main Frankfurt Wiesbaden Mainz Darmstadt Offenbach Germany Purchasing power per capita (2017): Frankfurt 25,532 / Wiesbaden 24,836 / Mainz 24,396 / Darmstadt 24,299 / Offenbach 20,786 / Germany 22,239 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Traffic situation Frankfurt/Rhein-Main Air traffic Rail traffic Highway traffic 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Passenger numbers at Frankfurt Airport reached peak level of about 64.5 million (+6.1 compared to the previous year). Same applied to cargo volumes, which increased by 3.6 to more than 2.2 million tonnes. Frankfurt central station is the most important ICE hub in Germany. More than 630 long-distance and local trains per day, 1,100 S-Bahn trains (regional trains) and 350,000 visitors and travellers. Central hub for Germany s long-distance road network with five motorway links. Frankfurter Kreuz is the busiest motorway junction in Germany with about 335,000 vehicles per day. Source: Cities Frankfurt a.m., Wiesbaden, Mainz, Darmstadt, Offenbach Source: Federal Statistical Office, Federal Employment Agency Source: GfK GeoMarkting GmbH The Rhine-Main region continues to grow, as demonstrated by the fact that the population in the region s five largest cities increased by 0.8 compared to a year previously. Thus as of 30.9.2017 only the half-year figure is available for Frankfurt am Main around 1.535 million people were living in Frankfurt, Wiesbaden, Mainz, Darmstadt and Offenbach. The falling level of unemployment is one obvious effect of the improvement in the economy. The unemployment rate for the five largest cities fell by 0.4 -points on average. Only in Wiesbaden did the rate remain unchanged. The biggest reductions took place in Mainz (0.8 -points) and Frankfurt (0.6 - points). These two cities also recorded the lowest rate of unemployment among all five cities at 5.6. Latest economic studies also suggest that this development will continue in the coming months. For example, the report titled Employment and Economic Forecast Frankfurt-Rhine-Main 2018 concluded that the gross domestic product in the region will increase by 2.1 in the next year following a 2.0 increase in 2017. The results of the latest economic surveys carried out by the Chamber of Industry and Commerce (IHK) in Frankfurt am Main in autumn 2017 as well as by the IHKs in the state of Hesse were also positive. In both city and state, 92 of companies rated their current situation as good or satisfactory. Around 90 of companies in both studies also said that they expect to see a continuation of this trend or a further improvement in the coming months.
Market Data Take-up (lettings and owner occupation) 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Take-up (in thousend sqm) 349 sqm 582 sqm 511 sqm 569 sqm Average take-up 10 years (552, 000 sqm) 753 sqm 629 sqm 635 sqm 769 sqm 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Take-up according to unit size 2017 500,000 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 Total: 769,000 sqm 72 Spaces 31 Spaces 16 Spaces 65,000 sqm 72,000 sqm 66,000 sqm 16 Spaces 121,000 sqm 23 Spaces 445,000 sqm < 1,500 1,501-3,000 3,001-5,000 5,001-10,000 > 10,000 Take-up according to industry 2017 Transport, Warehouse & Logistics Trade Manufacturing Others & n/a Definition market area 15.7 10.8 31.1 42.4 NAI apollo defines the Frankfurt/Rhine-Main market area for logistics and warehouses as the relevant available logistics and warehouse space between the cities of Butzbach in the north and Worms in the south, as well as between Bingen in the west and Aschaffenburg in the east. The City of Frankfurt am Main forms the central point of the sub-market described. In 2017, space take-up by tenants and owner-occupiers on the market for warehouse and logistics space in the Rhine- Main area reached about 769,000 sqm. This result not only surpassed the 700,000 sqm threshold for the second time but also exceeded the 2014 record figure by 16,000 sqm. The high take-up of space in 2017 was based to a large extent on a bigger proportion of deals for more than 10,000 sqm. Within this size category, a volume of 445,000 sqm was generated throughout the year, representing the highest value for this cluster since we compiling data. Compared to the previous year, this segment grew by 64.9. This development was particularly caused by the increased requirement for space on the part of logistics service providers and retail companies, primarily as a result of the e-commerce boom. Demand remains high and continues to rise, especially for warehouses larger than 5,000 sqm. In terms of the different industries in 2017, transport, warehouse and logistics service providers accounted for a take-up volume of about 326,000 sqm. This corresponds to a share of 42.4. The trade industry was next with 239,000 sqm, followed by industrial companies with 121,000 sqm. The largest contracts in 2017 included a 43,000 sqm space leased by a contract logistics provider in Trebur as well as the lease by an online retailer of a 35,000 sqm warehouse on the former Südzucker site in Groß-Gerau. Further large lease contract signings were also undertaken by Bosch Thermotechnik GmbH in Butzbach with 34,000 sqm and 20,000 sqm and the Rossmann drugstore chain in Bürstadt for more than 33,000 sqm. NAI apollo advised on the latter deal.
Market Data Development of rents Frankfurt am Main 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 Selection of large current project developments 2017 Kelsterbach - 50,000 sqm Construction of the M-Port³ logistics park by MP Holding and Fraport AG with the start of the first speculative construction phase for 25,000 sqm. The plan is to build a total warehouse space of around 50,000 sqm. Gernsheim - 46,000 sqm Construction by AXXUS Capital and Gaul Planung & Finanzierung of a trimodal logistics park with 46,000 sqm of warehouse space on the former site of the van Baerle chemicals plant. Trebur - 43,000 sqm Construction of a 43,000-sqm distribution hall for a contract logistics provider in the industrial park of Zech Group-owned Deutsche Logistik Holding (DLH) on the former Mitsubishi site. Selection of large completed developments 2017 Biblis - 85,000 sqm Completion of the new distribution centre by Dietz AG that is let to Dutch non-food discounter Action. Ginsheim-Gustavsburg - 32,000 sqm Construction of VGP-Park in Ginsheim-Gustavsburg, with full occupancy achieved before completion. Erlensee - 28,000 sqm Completion of a logistics warehouse for Dachser on the former Langendiebach airbase by Panattoni Europe in the immediate vicinity of a Dachser food distribution centre. Outlook next 12 months Stock Vacancy Take-up Prime rent Minimum rent Prime rent logistics space 5.000 sqm (in /sqm) Prime rent warehouse/logistics space - including industrial parks (in /sqm) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 In an analysis of the different forms of rented space, rentals in existing buildings account for the largest proportion of takeup with a slightly higher share of 47.5 compared to the previous year (45.1 ). At the same time, lease contracts for spaces in current project developments are playing an increasingly bigger role. In absolute terms, take-up in this segment increased by 143,000 sqm or 80.9 to about 320,000 sqm. This corresponds to a take-up share of 41.6, amounting to an increase of 13.7 -points. The large lease contracts mentioned above contributed significantly towards this growth. In contrast to this development, there was a decline in owner-occupier projects and purchases by owner-occupiers. By the end of 2017, these categories accounted for a combined share of take-up amounting to 10.9 (2016: 27.1 ). There were no significant changes in the geographical distribution of take-up compared to 2016. The southwest submarket played a dominant role with a take-up share of 42.6 or about 327,000 sqm. The prospects also look bright for a further positive development of the warehouse and logistics market in the Rhine-Main area during 2018. Contract preparations already in place at the end of 2017 suggested the year would get off to a good start. For 2018 as a whole, space-take-up is again expected to far exceed the tenyear average; owing to the record result in 2017 of 552,000 sqm. In 2018, the former Südzucker site in Groß-Gerau, the former air base in Erlensee and the former Mitsubishi site in Trebur are expected to see an increase in market activity. Also worth mentioning are new projects in areas such as Gernsheim and Egelsbach, as well as the various developments by SEGRO, as they are creating new, largescale logistics areas and industrial parks in the region on a (partly) speculative basis.
Submarkets Submarkets, rents and available logistics stock 2017 North-East 3.50 5.00 /sqm North-West 3.50 6.50 /sqm Frankfurt 3.00 6.30 /sqm Wiesbaden/Mainz 3.00 5.60 /sqm East 3.00 5.00 /sqm South-East 3.50 6.30 /sqm South-West 3.20 6.95 /sqm
Top 5 Key Facts Logistics strongholds Average 18,6 and prime rent for logistics space ( 5,000 m²) Q4 2017 Average rent in /sqm Prime rent in /sqm Berlin 4.40 5.10 Dusseldorf 4.40 5.40 Frankfurt/Rhine-Main 5.00 6.30 Hamburg 4.90 5.80 Munich 6.20 6.80 Prime yields Q4 2017 Prime office yields Prime retail yields Prime logistics yields Berlin 2.90 3.05 4.45 Dusseldorf 3.60 3.30 4.45 Frankfurt a. M. 3.20 3.20 4.45 Hamburg 3.05 3.10 4.45 Munich 3.05 2.90 4.40 Total Ø = 3.15 Ø = 3.10 Ø = 4.45 Frankfurt/Rhine-Main Top take-up 2017 Property + Location Tenant / owner occupier Utility area in sqm Trebur Contract Logistics Provider approx. 43,000 Groß-Gerau Gorilla Sports approx. 35,000 Butzbach Bosch Thermotechnik GmbH approx. 34,000 Bürstadt Rossmann approx. 33,000 Dreieich DHL Solutions GmbH approx. 30,000 Top investments 2017 Property + Location Purchaser Utility area in sqm Ostheimer Weg / Babenhausen Blackstone / M7 Real Estate (part of logistics portfolio) approx. 148,000 Distribution centre / Worms Garbe Logistik Immobilien Fonds Plus approx. 54,000 TST Logistics property / Worms European Logistics Fund (TH Real Estate) approx. 50,000 Reinhard-Müller-Ring / Otzberg China Investment Corporation (part of logistics portfolio) approx. 44,700 Logistics centre / Bodenheim AXA IM - Real Assets approx. 41,100
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