POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT FORECASTS Paul DesJardin COG Community Planning and Services Item # 11 National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board
Overview of Forecasts (Round 9.1) First update to Forecasts that were approved in 2016 (Round 9.0) Many COG/TPB jurisdictions updated their Forecasts but cumulative regional change is negligible Updated Forecasts also obtained for: Baltimore region (BMC Round 8B) Fredericksburg MPO (GWRC/FAMPO 2045) Calvert and St. Mary s (C-SMMPO) Clarke and Fauquier 2
Transportation Land Use Coordination Regionally Significant Transportation Project Cooperative Forecast Year New York Avenue Metrorail Station 6.2 2000 Inter-County Connector (ICC) 6.4a 2004 Purple Line 7.2a 2009 Silver Line Metrorail 8.2 2010 U.S. 1 Bus Rapid Transit / Embark Richmond Highway 9.1 2018 Land Use Changes D.C. - population and employment D.C., Montgomery and Prince George s counties, Rockville - population and employment Montgomery and Prince George s counties - population and employment Fairfax county population and employment Fairfax County - population and employment 3
MWCOG Cooperative Forecasting Process Regional Econometric Model Projections Employment Population Households Reconciliation Regional Jurisdictional Small Area (TAZ) Local Forecasts Short Term Permits Long Term Comprehensive Plans 4
Summary of Current Forecasts (Round 9.1) COG / TPB Planning Area (Thousands) 2015 to 2045 2015 2045 Number Percent Employment 3,160.8 4,273.8 1,113.0 35% Population 5,390.6 6,925.7 1,535.1 28% Households 2,011.7 2,659.9 648.2 32% 5
Change in 2045 Forecast from Prior Round COG / TPB Planning Area (Thousands) Round 9.0 Round 9.1 Number Percent Employment 4,291.2 4,273.8-17.4-0.4% Population 6,876.0 6,925.7 49.7 0.7% Households 2,651.3 2,659.9 8.6 0.3% 6
Forecast Employment Growth (Thousands; 2015-2045) District of Columbia 798.3 Fairfax County 654.1 Montgomery County 520.2 Prince George's 338.6 63.6 18.8% Loudoun County 167.1 124.0 74.2% Arlington County 209.7 59.4 28.3% Prince William County 143.1 114.0 79.7% City of Alexandria 106.2 48.9 46.0% Frederick County 111.8 33.7 30.1% City of Rockville 76.9 19.5 25.3% City Gaithersburg 46.4 19.3 41.5% City of Frederick 50.7 11.3 22.2% Charles County 46.6 14.9 32.0% City of Manassas 5.3 20.7% City of Fairfax 0.6 2.6% City of Falls Church 6.6 55.0% City of Manassas Park 0.6 12.5% 247.1 235.8 36.0% 158.6 30.5% 2015 Employment Forecast Growth 2015-2045 31.0% 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 (Thousands) 7
Forecast Household Growth (Thousands; 2015-2045) Fairfax County Montgomery County District of Columbia Prince George's County Prince William County Loudoun County Arlington County Frederick County City of Alexandria Charles County City of Rockville City of Frederick City Gaithersburg City of Manassas City of Fairfax City of Falls Church City of Manassas Park 403.9 374.9 297.1 321.1 142.1 55.2 38.8% 121.1 47.6 39.3% 103.8 38.1 36.7% 89.5 41.7 46.6% 71.2 35.9 50.4% 53.7 38.5 71.8% 26.4 12.9 48.9% 27.3 9.5 34.8% 24.7 8.8 35.5% 2.7 19.9% 4.5 50.9% 2.7 49.1% 0.5 11.7% 124.2 87.1 23.2% 114.8 38.6% 55.6 17.3% 2015 Households Forecast Growth 2015-2045 30.7% 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 (Thousands) 8
Regional Goals, Targets, and Initiatives 1998 TPB Policy Goal Develop, implement, and maintain an interconnected transportation system that enhances quality of life and promotes a strong and growing economy throughout the entire region, including a healthy regional core and dynamic Regional Activity Centers with a mix of jobs, housing and services in a walkable environment. 2010 COG Land Use Target Capture 75% of future employment growth and 50% of future household growth in Regional Activity Centers. 2017 TPB Endorsement Optimize Regional Land-Use Balance - Increase jobs and housing around underused rail stations and Activity Centers with high-capacity transit. Encourage building additional housing in the region to match employment projections. 9
Jobs and Housing at Activity Centers and Premium Transit Employment Existing, 2015 Growth, 2015 to 2045 Forecast, 2045 75% 65% 3% 21% 68% 4% 31% 4% 28% Existing, 2015 Growth, 2015 to 2045 Forecast, 2045 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 Households 4% 32% 64% 3% 64% 33% 4% 40% 56% 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 Within Activity Centers Outside of Activity Centers but Near Premium Transit Outside Activity Center and Outside Premium Transit 10
Jobs and Housing at Premium Transit Employment Existing, 2015 17% 83% Growth, 2015 to 2045 74% 26% Forecast, 2045 44% 56% 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 Households Existing, 2015 19% 81% Growth, 2015 to 2045 39% 61% Forecast, 2045 24% 76% 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 Premium Transit Outside of Premium Transit 11
Jobs and Housing and the East West Divide Employment Existing, 2015 39% 61% Growth, 2015 to 2045 39% 61% Forecast, 2045 39% 61% 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 Households Existing, 2015 41% 59% Growth, 2015 to 2045 46% 54% Forecast, 2045 42% 58% 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 East West 12
Change in 2040 Forecast from Round 8.0 2040 Forecast Comparison COG / TPB Planning Area (Thousands) Round 8.0 (2010) Round 9.1 Number Percent Employment 4,358.2 4,116.0-242.2-6% Population 6,386.2 6,712.8 326.6 5% Households 2,502.1 2,565.4 63.3 3% 13
TPB Endorsed Initiative Optimize Regional Land Use Balance Through this initiative the TPB aspires to improve the performance of the region s transportation system. Three primary components of this aspirational initiative: 1. More households are needed to provide regional workers to meet demand from future job growth. 2. Location of future growth in households and jobs within a jurisdiction should be focused in Regional Activity Centers and/or in areas with high-capacity transit. 3. Better balanced distribution of future growth in jobs and housing between the eastern and western portions of the region should be sought. 14
Planning Directors Discussion Topics Take stock of the current forecast. o Assess how Round 9.1 may address aspirations of the Optimized Regional Land Use Balance scenario Highlight examples of efforts under way in respective jurisdictions that demonstrate movement toward these aspirations. Discuss how future updates to local plans, strategies, and corresponding forecast could advance the TPB endorsed aspirational initiative. o What enabling policy actions can assist Land Use planners. 15
Next steps Transmitted TAZ data files to TPB staff for AQ Conformity analysis Staff analysis of sub-regional growth (corridors, Activity Centers, Transit Station areas, etc.) Ongoing Planning Directors work program to support goals of the TPB and LRPTF Final approval in Fall concurrent with TPB approval of Conformity results Monitor planning and economic trends: Federal presence and economy Commercial space utilization and re-purposing Demographic trends Housing affordability 16
Questions? 17
Paul DesJardin Director of Community Planning and Services (202) 962-3293 pdesjardin@mwcog.org mwcog.org 777 North Capitol Street NE, Suite 300 Washington, DC 20002