Japanese Nuclear Policy after 3.11 -Our Choice after Fukushima or whose choice? 31th August 2011 Noriaki Yamashita REFORM Workshop @ Salzburg Free University of Berlin Environmental Policy Research Institute(FFU) Institution for Sustainable Energy Policies
Nuclear Policy before Fukushima 14 new plants by 2030, 48.5% El. generation share in 2030. GWh Nuclear 26% Nuclear 53% 2007 2030 Source: Energy Basic Plan(2010) 2
Big Impact of TEPCO s Fukushima Accident Severe accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (INES Level 7) 3
Why? -not only natural disaster 1. Why did this accident happen? The accident was triggered by huge earthquake and Tsunami Inherent cause was human/organizational/policy error 2. Why did things get bad to worse? Complex and chaotic initiative Poor performance of Japan s nuclear science and engineering Naoto Kan(Former prime minister) Direct Advice Supporting victims Blackout, El. saving Accident response task force (METI) Minister of Nuclear Accident METI & TEPCO team Nuclear Safety Commission Special Advisory Board 4
3 step to settle down -2 nd step now 8/17 Step 1 (3 months) Step 2 (3-6 months) Step 3 (-3 years) Cool down Nuclear reactor Stable cooling down Cold shutdown Keeping cold shutdown Fuel pool Stable cooling down More stable cooling down Remove fuel rod Restrain Contami nated water Ground water, air, land Keeping storage location Reducing contaminated water Clear away the water Restrain Restrain Clear away the rubble Source: Prime minister of Japan and his cabinet http://www.kantei.go.jp/saigai/genpatsu_houshanou.html 5
Fukushima impact -from reactor to JP s policy Many important issues on nuclear and energy policy. Reactor decommi ssioning Accident investigat ion Compens ation Stop new constructi on Review fuel cycle policy New safety regulation New institution Unlimited insurance New energy policy Liberaliza tion of El. market Stable supply of El. RE & EE promotio n 6
TEPCO Zombie Scheme Monopoly scheme is preserved on ground of compensation issue. Huge compensation payment TEPCO s profit TEPCO s property Conservation of regional monopoly Disposal of property by national agency Public financial burden as El. fee Survival of existing energy policy Reduced public financial burden Open grid? New energy policy? Source: ISEP Energy Strategy Paper after 3.11 7
New Reality of Japanese Nuke -till 2050 If 40-year-old plants are shut down and no new plant, Japanese energy policy must change significantly. Fukushima Daiichi accident Shutdown of Hamaoka Shutdown of 40-year-old plant case (before 3.11) Shutdown of 40-year-old plant case (after 3.11) Phase out case until 2020 Phase out case until 2012 Capacity (GW) 8
New Agency Plan for Nuclear Safety Could Nuclear Safety Agency in MoE work well? METI Cabinet Office MEXT* MoE Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency report review Nuclear Safety Commision Department for monitoring radiation dose Nuclear Safety Agency regulatory role of El. utilities setting basic principle of safety control *MEXT: Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology 9
New Prime minister -which direction? Mr. Noda was appointed to a new prime minister because of political war, not as a result of nuclear policy debate. Former Position Keieda Noda Maehara Kano Mabuchi Minister of economy, trade and industry Minister of finance exminister of foreign affairs Agricultural minister ex-minister of land, infrastructure & transportation Restart nuclear plants after safety test Reduce nuclear dependency X hopefully this year X 20% by 2020) X X??? secure supply of El.) X gradual decrease X review the old plan X review nuclear policy completely 1 st vote in DPJ 143 102 74 52 24 2 nd vote in DPJ 177 215 pro-ozawa anti-ozawa neutral Source: Mainichi Newspaper 28 th August 2011, Sankei News 29 th Augsut 2011 10
Public Opinion Most people want nuclear decreasing and RE promotion. Q3. Should nuclear power plants increase or decrease in the future? 2.8% 15.1% 43.4% 33.1% 5.6% increase hold the status quo decrease phase out others Q5. How much do you trust on safety management of nuclear plant by the government? 2.6% 21.0% 48.3% 24.5% 3.5% considerabl y moderately moderately not little others Q9. Which energy source should increase in the future? 8.2% 3.4% 7.2% 70.2% 11% fossil fuel nuclear hydro renewables (excl. hydro) others Source: NHK (Japan Broadcasting Corporation) 11
Perspective of RE promotion 1. Feed-in Law got cabinet approval on 3.11 passed last Friday, but tariff will be decided within this year. Still many hurdles, such as open access, public acceptance. 2. Business leaders jumped in RE sector IT industry, housing industry, etc Mr. Son makes Japanese Renewable Energy Foundation 3. Broad public debate than ever Newspapers, TV programs, symposiums etc. Our choice is 12
Long-term Energy Shift Plan -ISEP Scenario Japan should realize energy shift from fossil fuel and nuclear to renewable and energy conservation. LNG Energy Conservation Oil & Coal Nuclear Renewable ISEP Scenario of power source shift (Shutdown of 40-year-old plant case (after 3.11)) 30% renewable energy in 2020, 50% in 2050 20% energy conservation in 2020, 50% in 2050 Source: ISEP Energy Strategy Paper after 3.11 13
Special Renewable Energy Promotion Zone 100% Renewable in Tohoku by 2020 RE local premium tariff EE zero energy house Grid Operator open access 14
Thank you for your attention Noriaki Yamashita nori0222@zedat.fu-berlin.de yamashita_noriaki@isep.or.jp Free University of Berlin Environmental Policy Research Institute(FFU) Institution for Sustainable Energy Policies