Today s Agenda. International Competition within the Nursery/Floral Sector

International Competition within the Nursery/Floral Sector Dr. Charlie Hall Ellison Chair in International Floriculture charliehall@tamu.edu Today s Agenda Why do we trade at all? Why do governments intervene in trade? Current nursery/floral situation domestically Current import/export trends Regulations/barriers impacting plant trade Sources of trade related data 1

Adam Smith used the principle of absolute advantage to show how a country can benefit from foreign trade if the country has the lowest absolute cost of production in a good (e.g. it can produce more output per unit of input than any other country). Ricardo s principle of comparative advantage showed that what matters is not the absolute cost, but the opportunity cost of production. The opportunity cost of production of a good can be measured as how much production of another good needs to be reduced to increase production by one more unit. 2

Therefore The principle of comparative advantage shows that even if a country has no absolute advantage in any product (e.g. it is not the most efficient producer for any good), the disadvantaged country can still benefit from specializing in and exporting the product(s) for which it has the lowest opportunity cost of production. Today s Agenda Why do we trade at all? Why do governments intervene in trade? Current nursery/floral situation domestically Current import/export trends Regulations/barriers impacting plant trade Sources of trade related data 3

Motivations for government intervention in markets Motivations for government intervention in markets 4

Motivations for protectionism Protect an eroding competitive advantage Achieve domestic policy goals Protect national security Protect an infant industry Protect national health Retaliate against policies of trading partners Protect against shortages or surpluses Motivations for protectionism Correct foreign exchange or BOP problems Exercise international market power Generate revenue for the government Import tariffs and export taxes Easier to collect than income or profit taxes 5

Justification for free trade 6

Today s Agenda Why do we trade at all? Why do governments intervene in trade? Current nursery/floral situation domestically Current import/export trends Regulations/barriers impacting plant trade Sources of trade related data MINING FERTILIZER PLANTS METAL WORKING TOOLS & MACHINERY CHEMICAL PLANTS FERTILIZER; PESTICIDES AG COLLEGES; RESEARCH FARMS OIL WELLS PETROLEUM PRODUCTS PLASTICS MANUFACTURING Extractive & Manufacturing FISHERIES FORESTRY PAPER MILLS T R A D E A S S O C I A T I O N S Production Marketing TRADE PRESS & PUBLICATIONS DIRECT MARKETING Consumption Nursery & Greenhouse Firms DISTRIBUTION & LANDSCAPE FIRMS FUNCTIONS Installation Maintenance Storage Transportation Financing Information RETAILING Garden centers Retail nurseries Retail greenhouses Florists Supermarket floral depts. Discount mass merchants Home improvement centers Farm markets Mail order & internet sales Wrappings, Containers Packaging materials Labels Irrigation materials PRINTED MATERIALS: (Catalogs; signs; packaging) INDIRECT MARKETING FIRMS Brokers Landscape contractors Lawn maintenance firms Re-Wholesalers Terminal market firms Cooperatives Auctions INSTITUTIONAL Schools; Churches Hotels; Resorts Hospitals Restaurants Interior landscapes Malls Corporate landscapes Public buildings Community parks EXPORTS: Market Area to Market Area Other states Canada Europe IMPORTS: Columbia, The Netherlands, Ecuador, Mexico, Canada, Guatemala, Australia, Israel, England, Costa Rica, Hawaii, Philippines, Japan, China, Africa Regulatory Trade Agreements Trade Barriers & Import Restrictions APHIS/PPQ Patents, Royalties & Copyrights Environmental Protection Pesticide and other chemical regulations End Consumer 7

$18,000,000 $16,000,000 $14,000,000 $12,000,000 $10,000,000 $8,000,000 $6,000,000 $4,000,000 $2,000,000 U.S. nursery and greenhouse grower cash receipts($1,000). 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006p $0 Industry has shown recession resistance and strong correlation to housing starts. 8

Year 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 1.9% 4.1% 3.9% 3.7% 3.2% 5.8% 5.6% 4.3% 5.6% 4.6% 4.9% 4.6% 2.0% 4.4% 4.8% 4.6% 5.4% 2.4% 2.2% 1.0% 1.0% 1.5% 7.0% 8.4% 7.2% 9.8% 9.5% 9.3% 10.5% 10.9% 10.4% 12.6% 11.9% Average annual growth rate, 18.0% 1967 2007. 13.1% 14.6% 12.8% 14.3% 15.2% 17.1% 20.7% Source: USDA Situation & Outlook, 1967 2007. In the 1970 s: 13.64% In the 1980 s: 9.91% In the 1990 s: 4.64% In the 2000 s: 2.87% 9

Total U.S. household lawn and garden retail sales Millions ($) 40,000 39,000 38,000 37,000 36,000 35,000 34,000 33,000 32,000 31,000 30,000 $33,519 $33,404 $37,734 $39,635 $38,371 $36,778 $35,208 $34,077 $35,102 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Source: National Gardening Surveys, NGA. Total U.S. HH lawn & garden retail sales vs. lawn/landscape services Millions ($) 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 L&L services = $44.7Bn in 2006 DIY L&G activities = $34.1Bn in 2006 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Source: National Gardening Surveys, NGA. 10

Weak Dollar, but Rebounding Increases P of imported inputs 11

The Rising Cost of Gettin By Chemicals 7% Fuel 49% Fertilizer 69% Containers 11%+ Machinery 7% CPI 4% *** price increases since May 2007 The Cost Price Squeeze for Growers Retail consolidation Fewer buyers Oversupply Product tags/labels JIT delivery, setup & care Barcode/pre-pricing Returnable shipping equipment Pay-by-scan Take back unsold product Consistent pricing Continuous volume replenishment Rising input costs (e.g. fuel) Labor availability 12

People Planet Profit 13

Value of greenhouse and nursery imports and exports, 1994 2006 (1,000 dollars). $1,600,000 $1,400,000 $1,200,000 $1,000,000 $800,000 $600,000 $400,000 $200,000 $0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Exports Imports 15

As international competition has increased, U.S. domestic growers have differentiated into specialty cut flowers. 19

Columbia (77%) and Ecuador (19%) supply almost 96% of U.S. bouquet market. 20

+ 5 % 23

List of Q37 Approved Plants African violets Begonia Hyacinth Ananas Nidularium Phalaenopsis Christmas cactus Gloxinina Peperomia Alstoemeria Anthurium Rhododendron Penjung Easter cactus Must be grown in approved conditions and shipped in approved media. Today s Agenda Why do we trade at all? Why do governments intervene in trade? Current nursery/floral situation domestically Current import/export trends Regulations/barriers impacting plant trade Sources of trade related data 28