Ministry of Food and Agriculture (MoFA) World Food Programme Northern Ghana Food Security & Nutrition Monitoring System FSNMS Bulletin for Fourth Quarter 2009 1.0. REGIONAL HIGHLIGHTS 1.1. Northern Region o Maize production in the region is reported to be marginally better than that of last year (2008); the yield per acre is reported by MoFA to be 8 to 9 bags per acre compared to 7 to 8 bags per acre in 2008 o Rice production has also increased mainly as a result of inputs and machinery that farmers received under the Block Farming scheme. However, harvesting of rice was delayed due to late arrival of the combined harvesters. Post harvest losses are likely to increase as a result of this. o Between June and December 2009, the wholesale price of maize dropped by 21.3% o The number of sentinel sites reporting empty granaries dropped from 24 in October 2008 to 11 in October 2009, implying that food availability at household level was generally better in October 2009 than a year earlier. 1.2. Upper East Region o 62% of the 13 reporting sentinel sites in the region reported half full or three-quarters full granaries in November 2009. During the same period in 2008, only 23% of sentinel sites (3 sites) reported full granaries. o Despite the harvest, prices of sorghum and millet appear to be rising. o Production/yields of the major crops (maize, millet and sorghum), is projected by MoFA to be less than that of last year. 1.3. Upper West Region o The Upper West Region appears to have experienced a serious shortage of food at household level in the month of October 2009: as many as 8 of the 17 reporting sites (47%) reported having empty granaries. MoFA officials attribute this to a late onset of the harvest of maize in the region as compared to the Northern and Upper East regions. o The number of reporting sentinel sites consuming two or three meals a day dropped marginally from 17 in October 2008 to 13 in October 2009 o Rice farmers in the region also suffered from the late arrival of the combined harvesters under the Block Farming scheme. The harvest was thus delayed and lasted until December 2009. Statistics, Research and Information Directorate of the Ministry of Food and Agriculture Email: saadongos@yahoo.com Ministry of Health/Ghana Health Services Private Mail Bag, Ministries, Accra. United Nations World Food Programme Email: Ghanafsms@wfp.org
2.0. Rainfall Situation The month of October experienced a significant amount of precipitation throughout northern Ghana. The rainfall maps below depict the moisture situation in October. The Upper East and Upper West regions recorded as much as 60mm of rain throughout the second dekad which was generally perceived to be a more-than-normal rainfall situation. This was however useful especially for the harvest of groundnuts whereby a significant amount of moisture is required to aid the uprooting (digging out) of the vines. In the northern Region some sentinel sites notably in the Savelugu/Nanton, East Gonja and Nanumb a North districts recorded as much as ten (10) wet days. November experienced a remarkable reduction in the incidence of rainfall across the whole of northern Ghana as reported by MoFA. As the month of November was the harvest month for the late crops particularly sorghum and millet, farmers across the three regions enjoyed a smooth harvest, devoid of interruptions by rain. This is very important for the production of good quality and viable seeds for planting in the next season. By the second week of December, the rains had virtually stopped completely, giving way to the dry and hazy weather conditions that usually characterize the hamattan period in northern Ghana. Figure 1: Rainfall estimates for the first dekad of October 2009 Figure 2: Rainfall estimates for the second dekad of October 2009 Figure 3: Rainfall estimates for the third dekad of October 2009 3.0. Progress of the Agricultural Season in Northern Ghana Across the three northern regions, the last quarter of 2009 was characterized by the harvesting of the late maturing crops namely sorghum, millet and yam. By the end of October, most farmers had completed the harvest of maize and groundnuts in most parts of northern Ghana. Harvest of millet, sorghum and the second (last) round harvest of yam began in November through to early December. Most yam farmers especially in the Northern Region and parts of the Upper West Region ( notably Wa East and Wa West districts), took advantage of the favourable moist ure conditions experienced in October to prepare their yam fields in readiness for planting. This involved clearing of the fields and raising of the yam mounds. The actual planting of yam in most of these areas however commenced mid December. Information from MoFA in the three northern regions indicates that the harvest of rice, especially on the Block Farms was delayed until around the middle of November due to the late arrival of the combined harvesters. A good number of rice farmers in the region continued with the harvest until late December. This delay, as well as the prolongation of the harvest, would likely increase the 2
chances of post harvest losses resulting from destruction of crops by domestic animals wh ich are normally released on free-range after the harvest of the major crops (maize, millet and sorghum). The heavy rains recorded in the second dekad of October in most districts of the north in October is reported to have impeded fertilizer application in rice fields, but this according to MoFA officials did not have much negative impacts on the development of the crops. Maize production in the Northern Region has been estimated by MoFA to be higher than it was in 2008. According to MoFA, the 2009 estimated yield per acre is 8 to 9 bags whereas that for 2008 was 7 to 8 bags. This is largely attributed to the Block Farming system under which farmers received fertilizers and other inputs. In the Upper East Region however, although the production and the yield is considered to be generally good, MoFA officials believe the 2008 production and yields especially of maize, rice and millet were better. At most sentinel sites in the three northern regions, farmers perceived the agricultural season in the last quarter of 2009 to be largely normal. 4.0. Migration Situation The last three months of the year are noted for increased incidence of migration, especially of the youth to southern Ghana. This is usually instigated by the fact that people are usually left with virtually no work to do after the harvests. This is substantiated by sentinel sites data which generally shows quite a significant rise in migration in November and December 2009 as compared to September and October. The migration situation is nevertheless considered to be normal for this period of the year. Only one site in the Northern Region recorded a more-than-normal migration situation in the month of October 2009; a month later (November 2009) the region recorded more -than-normal migration in two sites representing a decline from the level reported in November 2008 when 4 sites recorded a more-than-normal situation in the same month. In the Upper East Region, 11 and 13 sites reported normal migration in October 2009 and November 2009 respectively, representing an increase over the October 2008 situation which was 8 si tes reporting normal migration. The sentinel sites data from the Upper West Region generally showed a decline in the migration situation as compared to 2008. 5.0. Food Security Summary and Price Trends The household food security situation in northern Ghana experienced a major boost in the period under review as a result of the harvest of cereals and other crops. With prices of the major food commodities in northern Ghana also dropping quite significantly within the period under review, even non-farming households would have increased access to food. 5.1. Northern Region The Northern Region reported a significant decline in the number of sentinel sites recording empty granaries between October and November 2009 as compared to 2008 (same months). In October 2009, the region reported empty granaries at 11 sites as against 24 sites reported in October 2008. 3
It would be observed from the chart below that, the prices of the major staples in the Northern Region, particularly Maize and Sorghum began to decline from the month of June 2009, due mainly to the influx of freshly harvested foodstuffs from southern Ghana on to the markets in the region. The price of maize in particular reached its peak in June 2009 when it began to fal l. The year-end price (December 2009 price) for maize represents a 15.5% drop from the January 2009 price and 21.3% from the peak price recorded in June. 100 Monthly average wholesale price trends of the major staples in Northern Region- 2009 90 Price in GHC 80 70 60 50 40 maize millet sorghum local rice 30 20 10 0 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Figure 4: (12 months price trends showing how prices fared throughout 2009 (Jan to Dec) Note: Units of measurement are: maize - 100kg, sorghu m- 109kg, millet-93kg, local rice- 100kg 4
The figure below (figure 5) compares the price behaviour in respect of the major staples in the region during the last quarters of the years 2007, 2008 and 2009. I t would be observed that prices are still relatively high (in December 2009) with maize and local rice being the only commodities whose prices were lower in December 2009 than they were in December 2008. This implies that households (landless women-headed households especially) who depend mainly on the markets for their supply of foodstuffs are still very vulnerable and at risk of food insecurity. 120 Regional average wholesale price trends for major staples in Northern Region- (Oct - Dec/2007-2009) 100 Price in GHC 80 60 40 Maize Millet Sorghum Local Rice 20 0 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Figure 5: Comparing the price behavi our in the last quarters of 2007, 2008 and 2009 (thus before, during and after the high food price crisis ) Note: Units of measurement are: maize - 100kg, sorghum - 109kg, millet -93kg, local rice- 100kg 5.2. Upper East Region The harvest of the early maturing millet in the region which occurred in July played a key role in sustaining households until the harvest of the other major staple crops in the last quarter of the year. The onset of the October harvests further boosted food availability at household and community levels resulting in increased food stock levels. 92% of the 13 reporting sentinel sites from the region (12 sites) registered half-full or three-quarters full granaries, with only one site indicating that their granaries were empty. This is a tremendous improvement over the situation in October 2008 when only 10% (just 2 sites) reported half-full or three-quarters-full granaries. As the harvest of crops became more established in November, the household cereal stock levels experienced a further boost with 62% (10 sites) recording full or three -quarters full granaries. It appears however, that the increased availability of food at household level did not impact much on the prices of the commodities on the markets as depicted in the chart below. This is even more marked as the national rate of inflation has declined margina lly over the period. Maize and local rice were the commodities that showed some downward changes from the September 2009 levels. The price of local rice in particular proved to be highly unstable throughout the last quarter of 2009 as can be observed in the chart (figure 6). (Wholesale price data for the UER could not be obtained for all the months of 2009 as well as for previous years) 5
Monthly average wholesale price trends of the major staples in UER- (Oct - Dec 2009) 100.00 90.00 80.00 70.00 yyy 60.00 50.00 40.00 Maize Millet Sorghum Local Rice 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Figure 6 Note: Units of measurement are: maize - 100kg, sorghum - 109kg, millet -93kg, local rice- 100kg 5.3. Upper West Region Quite a significant number of households in the Upper West Region ex perienced cereal stock shortage in October 2009. As many as 8 of the 17 reporting sites (47%) in October reported empty granaries. MoFA officials attribute this to a late onset of the harvest of maize in that region as compared to the Northern and Upper East regions. Similarly, the number of reporting sites consuming two or three meals a day dropped from 17 in October 2008 to 13 in October 2009. The situation in November 2009 was no different as the region reported lower levels of household cereal stock and meals consumed per day as compared to the same month a year ago. As shown in figure 8 below, this situation could be as a result of the generally high prices of cereals within the last quarter of 2009 as against 2008. Figure 7 further indicates that the price of local rice was quite stable throughout the year, especially between March and December. This was probably because rice is not grown so much in the Upper West Region (compared to Upper East and Northern regions), therefore the variation in supply (seasonality) is limited and therefore does not cause very significant changes in prices. It appears the harvest of the early millet in the Upper East Region did increase the supply of millet on markets in the Upper West Region as suggested by the sharp drop in the price in September 2009. 6
120.00 Monthly average wholesale price trends of the major staples in UWR- 2009 100.00 Price in GHC 80.00 60.00 40.00 Maize Millet Sorghum Local Rice 20.00 - Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Figure 7: (12 months price trends showing how prices fared throughout 2009 (Jan to Dec) Note: Units of measurement are: maize - 100kg, sorgh um- 109kg, millet -93kg, local rice- 100kg 140.00 Regional average wholesale price trends for major staples in UWR- (Oct - Dec/2008-2009) 120.00 price in GHC 100.00 80.00 60.00 40.00 Maize Millet Sorghum Local Rice 20.00 - Oct-08 Oct-09 Nov-08 Nov-09 Dec-08 Dec-09 Figure 8: Comparing the price behavi our in the last quarters of 2007, 2008 and 2009 (thus before, during and after the high food price crisis ) Note: Units of measurement are: maize - 100kg, sorghum - 109kg, mill et-93kg, local rice- 100kg 7
6.0. Health and Malnutrition 6.1. Report for the period October to December 2009 The nutritional status of children under five (5) years of age in two of the three (3) Northern Regions were assessed using the weight-for age (WFA) indicator. Data was collected from ten (10) selected health institutions in seven (7) districts of the Upper East and Upper West Regions close to the MoFA sentinel sites (Table 1). Table 1: Selected health institutions from which nutritional informati on was gathered Region District Health facility Builsa Sandema MCH Siniensi H/C Kassena/Nankana NavrongoMCH Upper East Nayagenia CHPS Bawku West Yelwoko CHPS Azuweira CHPS Jirapa Duori Wa West Mwabasi Upper West Nadowli Goli Wa Municipal Gbegru Note: Data from NR was incomplete and was not analyzed. This information was obtained from growth monitoring sessions carried out by the Ghana Health Service (GHS) at outreach points of these health centres as indicated above. The pe rcentages of underweight children (95% CI) are thus shown in Table 2 below. Table 2: Prevalence of malnutrition among children monitored in the Upper East and Upper West Regions of Ghana 1 from October to December 2009 Total number of children Global (95% CI) 2 (<-2z scores) 3 (95% CI) (<-3z scores) 4 National GDHS, 2008 Region examined Regional DHS, Regional DHS, -2 SD -3 SD 2008 2008 Upper East 20.8% 5.6% 178 (14.5%, 27%) 27% (2.0%, 9.3%) 5.5% Upper West 14.4% 5.1% 13.9% 3.1% 118 (7.6%, 21.2%) 13.1% (0.7%, 9.5%) 3.3% 6.2. Observation The data above shows regional level variations in the degree of malnutrition across the 3 Northern regions and is a reflection of the current level of malnutrition among children under 5 years during the last quarter of 2009. 1 Severity of Malnutrition by prevalence ranges: Acceptable - <10%, Poor - 10-19%, Serious 20-29%, Critical - >=30% (Source: Measuring & Interpreting Malnutrition and Mortality - WFP 2005; Centres for Disease Control & Prevention) 2 CI Confidence Interval 3 <-2z score figures show that the population indicated have their average weight being less than 80% of the standard reference weight for their respective age group 4 <-3z score figures show that the population indicated have their average weight being less than 70% of the standard reference weight for their respective age group 8