Food ps continue to rise Key points: s for most basic foods remained relatively high in October grain ps rose by 14 percent in Beira (Sofala) compared to September s have fallen slightly for imported, cow peas and cooking oil in Tete province goods such as and cooking oil are more expensive in Maputo province than in other areas Stock shortages are forecast because of a lack of resources for restocking and stock unavailability at central markets. WFP/David Orr WFP/ Riccardo Franco Methodology The October survey was conducted using live calls for a sample of 79 traders across 20 districts in the provinces of Gaza and Tete. This round, the survey covered more markets: one new market in Maputo (Magude) and two new markets in Manica (Chitope and Machaze). The questions focused on the ps of basic foods such as maize grain, maize, and cooking oil with an open-ended question to gauge traders perception of the food security situation in their areas. Phone surveys contain inherent response biases; therefore, the bulletin reports patterns and trends rather than precise estimates. Food Security Outlook Food ps in Mozambique are likely to be affected by the economic crisis and the reduced productivity of the last cropping season, among other shocks. Heading towards the first quarter of 2017 which is the lean season the ps of staples and essential imports will probably increase, at least up until the next harvest in March (source: FEWS NET Outlook 2016). The successful implementation of in-kind and cash-based transfers will serve as a buffer for many households, closing the hunger gap until the next harvest period. The significant depreciation of the local currency against the US dollar will continue to impede the flow of commercial food imports. The depreciation is reflected in the sharp increases in the ps of food and non-food items. 1
grain ps increase in Gaza Most basic foods were relatively expensive in October in most areas, surpassing levels observed in September (Tables 1 and 2). grain ps rose by 1.48 percent in Gaza and by 6.56 percent in Tete: the highest increase of 14.29 percent was in Sofala province. However, in Tete there were small decreases in the ps of imported (-0.52%), cow peas (-4.48%) and cooking oil (-0.73%). The p decreases in Tete could be a result of surplus food coming in from Zambia. Food ps are higher in rural markets than in urban ones except for maize. is slightly more expensive in urban markets, perhaps because of the distance from the rural source markets. Province Food commodity Table 2: Percentage change in food ps (Aug) % change in food ps (Sept) (Oct) % change (Aug to Sep) % change (Sep to Oct) 28.27 28.11 28.53-0.57 1.48 Table 1: October food ps by province (in MZN Gaza 39.56 40.22 40.96 1.66 1.84 46.86 47.63 49.8 1.64 4.57 1 KG 1 KG 1 KG 1 KG 1 Litre Cow peas 65.43 71.73 78.33 9.61 9.21 Cooking oil 108.37 114.77 121.48 5.9 5.84 Commodity Cow peas Cooking oil 23.69 22.6 24.09-4.58 6.56 Gaza 28.53 40.96 49.8 78.33 121.48 50.3 51.08 57.52 1.56 12.62 October ps by province Tete 24.09 57.52 46.96 75.42 127.92 Sofala 26 Maputo 28.52 42.23 50.8 90 129 Tete 46.08 47.2 46.96 2.43-0.52 Cow peas 78.09 78.95 75.42 1.11-4.48 Cooking oil 125.01 128.86 127.92 3.08-0.73 Manica 38.67 42.95 116.25 Sofala 23 22.75 26-1.09 14.29 2
grain and maize ps increase in most districts In October, maize became more expensive in most surveyed markets. The only exceptions were Chibuto (Gaza) and Mucumbora/Mague (Tete), which could be a result of the large amount of humanitarian assistance delivered to these districts. In Gaza, maize was being sold at an average 28.53 MZN/kg in October, while in Tete, it was slightly cheaper at 24.08 MZN/kg. In Zumbo, ps have typically been lower than in other markets because the district has high agricultural productivity. However, ps in Zumbo rose by 60 percent in October, potentially reflecting the peak of the lean season. Bilene-Macia recorded highest maize ps in October of 30.00 MZN/kg, slightly above the average for Tete province (Figure 1). In Tete, maize ps stood at 57.52 MZN/kg, an increase compared to September (Figure 2). However, in October most of the markets in Gaza registered the lowest ps for maize : an average 40.96 MZN/kg, and as low as 40.36 MZN/kg in Chibuto. The low maize ps in Gaza could be a result of the assistance that has been implemented since the start of the emergency in July 2016. Gaza also shares a border with South Africa one of the countries least affected by El Niño so there may be some trade taking place. Even so, nationally ps are expected to remain stable but high because of the lean season and the economic crisis. Figure 1: Retail p for maize grain (MZN/kg) by district Map 1: Retail p for maize (MZN/kg) by district Figure 2: Retail p for maize (MZN/kg) by district 3
foods become more expensive foods ( and cooking oil) saw a p hike in October 2016, worsened by the depreciation of the local currency against the US dollar (Figures 3 and 4). Figure 3: Retail p for (MZN/kg) by district Rice is an important substitute for maize for most of the population. Rice ps continued to rise in October: on average in Gaza retailed at 49.80 MZN/kg and in Tete at 46.95 MZN/kg. Maputo province registered 50.80 MZN/kg from its only surveyed market, Magude. The highest ps were recorded in Zumbo market: 13 percent above the provincial average. As Figure 4 shows, the already high ps have been increasing progressively over the last three months. For instance, vegetable oil retailed at 121 MZN/litre in Gaza and 128 MZN/litre in Tete. However, most markets retailed cooking oil below the provincial average. The supply of cow peas an alternative source of protein for most households remains limited in most markets. The average retail p for cow peas in October was 78.33 MNZ/kg in Gaza, 75.41 MNZ/kg in Tete and 90.00 MZN/kg in Maputo province. Figure 4: Retail p for cooking oil (MZN/litre) by district Figure 5: Retail p for cow peas (MZN/kg) by district 4
Stock shortages expected Some traders were expecting stock shortages because of a lack of money to restock and the unavailability of stock from the central markets. Some also mentioned a lack of transportation coupled with bad/inaccessible roads to bring the stock to their respective markets as factors that could contribute to shortages. Poor rains and high food ps seem to be the main issues underlying food insecurity in their communities. Traders continued to report a fall in purchasing power in October. Similar to September, the ongoing economic crisis which has pushed up food ps has reduced people s capacity to purchase food and non-food items. This means people are not buying in bulk and some are requesting to buy goods on credit. However, due to the economic crisis, traders feel there is no guarantee of payment so are reluctant to offer credit. Figure 6: Word cloud The situation is bad because corn and corn have been unavailable, these products have been unobtainable in the last week. Female trader from Mucumbora/Mague, Tete province People want to buy food on credit but the merchants do not accept because there is no guarantee of payment due to the financial crisis that has hit the country. Female trader from Chifunde, Tete province Livestock is dying due to lack of pastures and water. Male trader from Chibuto, Gaza province The buying ps for maize flour are high, making it difficult to buy maize for sell. Male trader from Mutarara, Tete province For further information: Ute Meir ute.meir@wfp.org mvam Resources: Lara Carrilho lara.carrilho@wfp.org Website: http://vam.wfp.org/sites/mvam_monitoring/ Andrew Odero andrew.odero@wfp.org Blog: mvam.org Arif Husain arif.husain@wfp.org Toolkit: http://resources.vam.wfp.org/mvam