ARID LANDSINSTITUTE @ Woodbury University intro and thank yous
Design has a powerful role to play in climate adaptation. Sandy 2012: Windspeed Analysis, Indian Space Research Organization OceanSat-2; Katrina 2005: Windspeed Analysis, NASA JPL QuikSCAT satellite.
responding to change: RebuildByDesign.org RebuildByDesign.org Resiliency Proposal for NYC: BIG U, BIG Team, 2014
anticipating change: Divining LA: Drylands City Design for the Next 100 Years
The challenges: 1. WATER IN THE WEST IS CHANGING.
POLICYFORUM CLIMATE CHANGE Stationarity Is Dead: Whither Water Management? Climate change undermines a basic assumption that historically has facilitated management of water supplies, demands, and risks. P. C. D. Milly, 1 * Julio Betancourt, 2 Malin Falkenmark, 3 Robert M. Hirsch, 4 Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, 5 Dennis P. Lettenmaier, 6 Ronald J. Stouffer 7 Systems for management of water throughout the developed world have been designed and operated under the assumption of stationarity. Stationarity the idea that natural systems fluctuate within an unchanging envelope of variability is a foundational concept that permeates training and practice in water-resource engineering. It implies that any variable (e.g., annual streamflow or annual flood peak) has a time-invariant (or 1-year periodic) probability density function (pdf), whose properties can be estimated from the instrument record. Under stathat has emerged from climate models (see figure, p. 574). Why now? That anthropogenic climate change affects the water cycle (9) and water supply (10) is not a new finding. Nevertheless, sensible objections to discarding stationarity have been raised. For a time, hydroclimate had not demonstrably exited the envelope of natural variability and/or the effective range of optimally operated infrastructure (11, 12). Accounting for the substantial uncertainties of climatic parameters estimated from short records (13) effectively hedged against small Milly, P.C.D., Betancourt, J., Falkenmark, M., Hirsch, R., Kundzewicz, Z., Lettenmaier, D., and Stouffer, R., Stationarity Is Dead: Whither Water Management?, Science, 1 February 2008: 319 (5863), 573-574.
The response: DESIGN FOR VARIABILITY.
The challenges: 2. WATER IN THE WEST IS ENERGY-and CARBON-INTENSIVE.
The response: UNCOUPLE THE WATER-ENERGY NEXUS.
The challenges: 3. POLICY BARRIERS SEPARATE WATER QUALITY vs. WATER SUPPLY
Quality: Federal Water Pollution Control Act (1948) Clean Water Act (1972-2002) 33 U.S.C. 1251 et seq. (1972)
Supply: CA Superior Court: City of LA vs. City of San Fernando, et al. (1962), (1979) City of LA Granted Pueblo Rights Safe Yield REQUIRES Imported Supplies Los Angeles County Flood Control District, Design Manual-Hydraulic, Los Angeles, March 1982.
Supply: Los Angeles County Flood Control District, Hydraulic Design Manual, 1982 Stormwater as Threat Los Angeles County Flood Control District, Design Manual-Hydraulic, Los Angeles, March 1982.
Quality: California Regional Water Quality Control Board, Municipal Stormwater and Wastewater Discharge Requirements, Dec. 2012.
The response: INTEGRATE WATER QUALITY and SUPPLY POLICY.
The opportunity: Los Angeles as test-bed. The case for localization.
Maximizing use, reuse, and recovery of rain and stormwater resources is central to establishing a robust localized water portfolio.
MWD Blue Ribbon Committee: By maximizing use and recovery of rain and stormwater resources while improving water use efficiency and recycling, up to 82% of water demand can be met through the strategic use and reuse of a broad-scale local water resource portfolio.
An Integrated Response Drylands Resilience Initiative Comprised of: Hazel : An Integrated Environmental Modeling Tool; DRI Network: A Multi-Sector Research Collaborative; Divining LA: A High-Impact Outreach, Testing and Implementation Campaign
ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING TOOL, PHASE 1: PROOF OF CONCEPT, 2012-2013 "Where is it? Let's (re)use It": A Fine-Scaled Geospatial Modeling Tool for the Strategic Targeting of Urban Stormwater Resources Funded by: USBoR, MWD/World Water Forum
Precedent: USBoR - Council for Watershed Health GWAM Model [2000-2010] Baseline Study for LA Basins
USGS
USGS
SFV Groundwater Basin
HOW? geospatial assessment model
Run Off Model 30-year Precipitation Normals 15m Remotely Sensed Impermeability Assessment Infiltration Model 1915 + 1919 USDA Soil Survey for San Fernando Valley, LA Basin 2008 NRCS SSURGO Soil Survey [incomplete] 2012 CA Quaternary Surficial Geology 2003 CA Geologic Survey Soil Liquefaction Constraint Fuzzy Logic Model 2007 EPA Superfund Plume Dataset 2012 EPA Toxic Release Database 2013 CA Water Resources Control Board Geotracker Sites Resultant Model Geospatial Modeling Framework Phase I: Probabilistic Overlay Approach
Stormwater Runoff Model
Surficial and Subsurface Infiltration Model
Constraint Model
WHERE? resultant analysis
Resultant:
Claim Modeling results suggest the following: There is an optimal pattern where stormwater infrastructural response can be uniquely tied to the watershed and subwatersheds's hydraulic functionality to increase the performance of stormwater recapture, reuse and safe infiltration.
SFV Watershed Framework for Stormwater Recovery Prioritization
Taxonomy of Best Management Practices as Recognized by USEPA, Los Angeles County
Dry Ponds Infiltration Basins
On-Site: Cisterns, Dry Wells Urban Forests
DRI RESEARCH COLLABORATIVE: INTEGRATED TOOL DEVELOPMENT, 2014- Hazel* A Dynamic, Integrated Planning Tool for Water-Smart Urban Development in Drylands * Hazel wood is used traditionally as an instrument for divining unseen water sources. Hazel is considered by some cultures a source of wisdom and inspiration.
Modified Run Off Model w/ Downscaled Climate Data 2012-2060 LA Region Downscaled Precipitation [atmos.ucla.edu] 3m Remotely Sensed Impermeability Assessment Coupled Surface and Infiltration Model 1915 + 1919 USDA Soil Survey for San Fernando Valley, LA Basin 2008 NRCS SSURGO Soil Survey [incomplete] 2012 CA Quaternary Surficial Geology 2003 CA Geologic Survey Soil Liquefaction 2014 MODFLOW Groundwater Model Constraint Fuzzy Logic Model 2007 EPA Superfund Plume Dataset with UPDATE 2012 / 2014 EPA Toxic Release Database 2013 / 2014 CA Water Resources Control Board Geotracker Sites Parameterized + Modified Built Environment @ Basin Scale 2012 LA Basin Building Polygons 2012 SCAG Landuse USER DEFINED INTERVENTIONS / MODIFICATIONS: -Soft / Hard Infrastructure Dynamic Resultant Model PERFORMANCE + ECONOMIC DATA Geospatial Modeling Framework Phase II: Downscaled Climate Change Inputs + Parameterized Modifications to Built Environment
Public-Private Research Partnership: ALI @ Woodbury University: Research Lead TreePeople: Ecosystems Services Valuation ARUP: Technical Oversight and Energy-Carbon Valuation of Stormwater, Recycling, and Conservation City of Los Angeles Bureau of Engineering: Strategic Planning for Tool Development and Implementation Collaborators: City of LA DWP, Watershed Management Division City of LA Bureau of Sanitation, Watershed Protection Program LA County Department of Public Works, Integrated Flood Control Planning Division, Watershed Management Division
Divining LA: Drylands City Design for the Next 100 Years
Divining LA: Public-Private Testing, Outreach, and Implementation Partnership, 2014- Arid Lands Institute @ Woodbury University: Post-Secondary Education Outreach Lead TreePeople: Secondary Education Outreach Lead American Institute of Architects Los Angeles Chapter: Design Professions Outreach Lead ARUP, AC Martin, Perkins + Will: Professional Testing and Outreach Multidisciplinary Design Programs in Southern California: Graduate and Undergraduate Testing City of LA Bureau of Engineering: Testing and Implementation Lead Public-Sector Collaborators: City of LA DWP, Watershed Management Division City of LA Bureau of Sanitation, Watershed Protection Program LA County Department of Public Works, Integrated Flood Control Planning Division, Watershed Management Division
Thank you for supporting this work: Metropolitan Water District of Southern California US Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation Sanitation Districts of Los Angeles County Burbank Water + Power Water for People Friends of the United Nations Woodbury University Ethan Dingwell, Student Lead and ALI Research Intern 2013 Karim Snouzzi
for more information: thank you