Renewable Energy: Pathways to a Sustainable Future

National Renewable Energy Laboratory Renewable Energy: Pathways to a Sustainable Future Richard H. Truly, Director National Renewable Energy Laboratory Georgia Institute of Technology Workshop on Sustainable Energy Systems Atlanta, Georgia November 29 - December 1, 2000 Operated for the U.S. Department of Energy by Midwest Research Institute Battelle Bechtel

2500 Nature vs. Humans (Weight of all air and land vertebrates) 2000 Millions of tons 1500 1000 500 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 Source: Paul B. MacCready Educating for the Student s 25th Birthday, March 7, 2000 You are here. You will soon be here. 2

U.S. Energy Consumption 120 100 by Source 1850-1999 Non-hydro Renewables Quadrillion BTUs 80 60 40 Hydro Nuclear Natural Gas 20 Wood Crude Oil 0 Coal 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 Source: 1850-1949, Energy Perspectives: A Presentation of Major Energy and Energy-Related Data, U.S. Department of the Interior, 1975; 1950-1996, Annual Energy Review 1996, Table 1.3. Note: Between 1950 and 1990, there was no reporting of non-utility use of renewables. 1997-1999, Annual Energy Review 1999, Table F1b. 3

Percent of Total Energy Consumed U.S. Energy Production by Source 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Wood 1850-1996 Coal Hydro Nuclear Natural Gas Crude Oil 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 Non-hydro Renewables Source: 1850-1949, Energy Perspectives: A Presentation of Major Energy and Energy-Related Data, U.S. Department of the Interior, 1975; 1950-1996, Annual Energy Review 1996, Table 1.3. Note: Between 1950 and 1990, there was no reporting of non-utility use of renewables 4

Atmospheric Concentration of CO 2 Atmospheric CO 2 Concentration (PPMV) Year Source: Adapted from W.M. Post, T.H. Peng, W.R. Emanuel, A.W. King, V.H. Dale, and D. DeAngelis. American Scientist, 1990. The Global Carbon Cycle. 6

World Population Growth Three Scenarios Source: National Geographic Society, Millennium in Maps, August 1998. 7

World Population Growth, 1750-2100 10 8 Billions 6 4 2 Developing Countries Industrial Countries 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Source: Population Reference Bureau 8

The World Needs Clean, Low-Cost Energy GDP Per Capita ($000/person) 100 10 1 0.1 Poverty Ethiopia El Salvador Bangladesh Japan France United Kingdom Mexico China Affluence South Korea Poland Russia 0.1 1 10 100 1000 Energy Consumption Per Capita (BTU/person) United States Source: Energy Information Administration, International Energy Annual 1998 Tables E1, B1, B2; Mike Grillot, 5/17/00 Gross Domestic Product per capita is for 1997 in 1990 dollars. Energy Consumption per capita is 1997. 9

Views of the Future World Energy Production 600 Petroleum Industry Dept of Energy; IEA* Capacity Constraints Quadrillion BTUs 500 400 1999 (est.)! IEA* Energy Savings and Shell Sustained Growth Shell Dematerialization 300 * International Energy Agency 200 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Sources of data: Department of Energy, International Energy Outlook 1997, tables 11.1 and 11.2, and page 171; Shell, The Evolution of the World s Energy Systems, converted from exajoules to quads. 10

Shell Sustained Growth Scenario 1500 Surprise Geothermal Exajoules 1000 500 Solar Biomass Wind Nuclear Hydro Gas Oil &NGL 0 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 Coal Trad. Bio. Source: Shell, The Evolution of the World s Energy Systems, 1995 11

Renewable Energy Pathways Wind Energy Solar Photovoltaics Solar Thermal Electric Solar Buildings Biomass Electric Biomass Transportation Fuels Geothermal Energy Hydropower Solar Advanced Photoconversion Source: Technology Opportunities to Reduce U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Oct 1997 12

U.S. Renewable Energy Resources 10 12 14 16 14 16 Solar Wind 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 26 24 22 20 18 14 16 12 10 14 10 2 Megajoules/m 12 <10 10-12 12-14 14-16 16-18 18-20 20-22 22-24 24-26 26-28 >28 6.0-6.5 m/s 13.4-14.6 mph 6.5-70 m/s 14.6-15.7 mph >7.0 m/s 15.7+ mph Bio mass G eothermal Agricultural resources residues Wood resources and residues Agricultural and wood residues Low inventory o Temperature <90C o Temperature >90C Geopressured resources 13

1999 Worldwide Non-Hydro RE Capacity Technology Installed Capacity (MW) Biomass * 35,000 Geothermal 8,250 PV * 800 Solar Thermal 350 Wind 10,000 Total 54,500 * Figures are rounded and approximate. Many biomass and PV generators are off-grid. PV capacity figures are taken from industry reports of cumulative sales. 14

Worldwide Photovoltaic Shipments 160 Megawatts per year 140 120 100 80 60 40 Rest of World Europe Japan U.S. 20 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Source: PV News, 1/7/99 15

Worldwide Wind Energy Installations 2800 Megawatts per year 2400 2000 1600 1200 800 Rest of World Europe North America 400 0 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 1999 Source: International Energy Agency 16

Renewable Energy Cost Trends 100 80 60 40 20 Photovoltaics 17 Cost of electricity ( /kwh) 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 4 3 2 1 Cost of ethanol ($/gal) 0 Bioethanol 1980 1985 1990 1995 40 30 20 10 0 Wind Cost of electricity ( /kwh) 1980 1985 1990 1995 10 8 6 4 2 Geothermal Cost of electricity ( /kwh) 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 40 30 20 10 Solar Thermal Cost of electricity ( /kwh) 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 20 15 10 5 0 Biomass Power Cost of electricity ( /kwh) 1980 1985 1990 1995 Source: Billman, Advances in Solar Energy submission, 1/8/99

Estimate of Renewable Energy Markets Millions of U.S. Dollars Over next five years India $1,000 - $1,500 Central America & Mexico $ 500 - $1,300 China $ 400 - $ 600 Southeast Asia $ 250 - $ 500 Brazil $ 250 - $ 500 Other Latin America and Caribbean $ 250 - $ 500 Africa and Middle East $ 150 - $ 300 Eastern and Central Europe $ 150 - $ 300 Total $2,950 - $5,500 1999 estimate $5,900! Source: International Finance Corporation 7/7/97 18

World Energy Markets Offer Significant Potential North America 108 GW Latin America/ Caribbean 38GW Western Europe 114 GW Middle East/ Africa 33 GW Total World 593 GW Additional electricity capacity needed in various regions, 1995-2005 Source: International Energy Outlook, 1997, Table A8 Eastern Europe Former Soviet Union 35 GW Developing Asia 204 GW Other 16 GW Japan/ Australia 61 GW Nations will spend $1 trillion this decade to meet new electric generating needs. (World Bank) The global market for energy efficiency technology and services is $84 billion per year. (International Institute for Energy Conservation) The global market for environmental technologies, (including the U.S.) could grow to $425 billion annually by the year 1997. (White House, Technology for a Sustainable Future ) 19

National Renewable Energy Laboratory ionly national laboratory dedicated to renewable energy and energy efficiency R&D iresearch spans fundamental science to technology solutions icollaboration with industry and university partners is a hallmark iresearch programs linked to market opportunities 20

Best Research-Cell Efficiencies 32 28 Efficiency (%) 24 20 16 12 Thin Film Technologies Amorphous silicon (stabilized) 8 Solarex United Solar 4 RCA 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 21

Best Research-Cell Efficiencies 32 28 24 Efficiency (%) 20 16 12 8 4 Thin Film Technologies Amorphous silicon (stabilized) CuInSe 2 RCA Boeing Boeing University of Maine Boeing Boeing ARCO Solarex NREL EuroCIS Boeing United Solar 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 22

Best Research-Cell Efficiencies 32 28 Multijunction Concentrators Three-junction (2-terminal, monolithic) NREL NREL Japan Energy NREL/ SpectroLab Efficiency (%) 24 20 16 12 8 4 Two-junction (2-terminal, monolithic) Thin Film Technologies Amorphous silicon (stabilized) CuInSe 2 RCA Boeing Boeing University of Maine North Carolina State University Boeing ARCO Boeing Solarex Varian Spire Boeing EuroCIS NREL United Solar 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 23

Future History Perspective Petroleum Refining Biomass Refining Emergence: First half of the 20th century Imperative: Industrialization Emergence: First half of the 21st century Imperative: Sustainability Advances in organic chemistry Advances in Biotechnology Biofuels Oil Fossil fuels Petrochemicals Chemical Engineering Biomass Biochemicals Power Feed Biocommodity Engineering 27

Bioenergy 28

Hydrogen Research Hydrogen from photoelectrochemical splitting of water PIX 06225 Carbon nanotubes for storage Mutant algal strains used to split water and produce hydrogen in the photobioreactor pictured in the background PIX 03595 29

Buildings of the Future 30

Distributed Generation: Shaping the Utility of the Future? 31

Wind Energy - Colorado i i i Windsource program from Public Service Co. 20 MW installed in Ponnequin, CO Over 15,000 customers have chosen to pay a premium for green power 32

What We Need: An Integrated Approach Technologies: Low cost Reliable Accessible Policies: Stable Consistent Long-term Markets: Sustainable Worldwide Competitive 33