APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook, 6 th Edition Cecilia Tam Special Advisor, APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
Business as Usual (BAU) Scenario 2
Mtoe Energy intensity index Outlook for APEC Energy Demand Final energy demand in APEC region 8 7 6 5 4-1 -2-3 Agricultural and nonspecified Commercial Residential Transport 3 2 1 213 22 23 24-4 -5-6 Industry Non-energy Energy intensity index (right axis) Final energy demand rises 32% from 213 level by 24. APEC s energy intensity reduction target of 45% cannot be met by 235 in the BAU scenario. 3
Mtoe Fossil-Fuels Continue to Dominate Energy Mix Total primary energy supply by fuel, 199-24 12 1 8 6 4 2 213: 86% Fossil Fuel Growth Rate 213-24 24: 82% Fossil Fuel 199 2 21 22 23 24 1.3% 2.3% 1.3% 2.1%.7%.4% Nuclear Other renewables Hydro Gas Oil Coal Energy supply in APEC region will more than double by 24 from 199 level. 4
TWh Share of renewables Outlook for Power Sector APEC installed capacity APEC electricity generation 213 Capacity: 3 564GW 24 Capacity: 6 415GW 25 2 Projection 1% 8% Other renewables Hydro 8% 6% 2% 5% 15 Nuclear Coal 6% Oil Gas 18% 5% 24% 39% 1% 14% 27% 33% 1 5 Gas Oil Hydro Other renewables % 199 2 213 22 23 24 4% 2% Coal Nuclear Share of renewables (right axis) Doubling level of renewables share in generation mix (right axis) RE capacity expand to 34% by 24, but fossil fuels dominate generation due to relatively lower RE capacity factors. Doubling not achieved by 23 nor 24 in BAU Note: Other renewables include solar PV, CSP, onshore wind, offshore wind, biomass, geothermal and marine. 5
Renewable Policies in APEC Economy Renewables Act Other regulation or master plan related to renewables Strategy for renewables development Renewable share target of electricity generation, % Feed-in tariff (FiT), renewable portfolio standard (RPS), tax incentives Australia 23.5% in 22, over 3% by 25 T Brunei Darussalam - 1% by 235 - Canada - * F/R*, T Chile 2% non-conventional in 225, 7% in 25 China 2% primary in 23 F, T Hong Kong - T Indonesia - 232 Mtoe (247.4 GW) in 25 F, T Japan 22-24% in 23 F, T Korea (13.4%) in 235 R, T Malaysia 3% in 22 F, T Mexico (29.1%) in 228 T New Zealand - 9% in 225 - Papua New Guinea - - - 1% in 25 - Peru 6% (5%**) in 22 - The Philippines (+9.9 GW, +2%) in 23 F, R, T Russia - 4.5%** (25 GW**) in 23 F Singapore - - - Chinese Taipei 12.6% (27.1%) in 23 F, T Thailand - 2% in 236 F, T United States - * F/R*, T Viet Nam - 6% in 23 F Note: = existing; - = not existing currently; F = feed-in tariff; R = renewable portfolio standard; T = taxation incentive; * = applied in some local territories or states; ** = target excludes large-scale hydro; ( ) corresponds to installed renewable capacity targets. - 6
High Renewables Scenario 7
Estimated Potential of Renewable Energy Note: This map is for illustrative purposes and is without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory covered by this map. Note: Oceania (Australia, New Zealand and PNG), Other Americas (Canada, Chile, Mexico and Peru), Other North East Asia (Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Chinese Taipei), South East Asia (Brunei Barussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam) 8
Declining Electricity Cost from Renewables Costs of RE technologies (solar and wind) will continue to see further cost reduction as deployment increases. Wide range of costs across APEC 9
Solar and Wind Growing at the Fastest Rates Solar and Wind have the highest annual growth rates due to abundant untapped economic potential, declining costs and government targets in some economies. 1
High Renewables Scenario GW 12 Russia TWh 6 1 5 8 4 6 3 4 2 213 24 213 24 GW China TWh 2 5 5 2 4 1 5 3 1 2 5 1 213 24 213 24 Geothermal GW Oceania Biomass and other 12 Solar 1 Wind 8 6 Hydro 4 213 BAU: 819 GW / 2 716 TWh 23 HR: 2 51 GW / 7 19 TWh 2 24 HR: 3 41 GW / 8 911 TWh 213 24 213 24 2 1 TWh 3 25 2 15 1 5 GW 3 2 1 GW 25 2 15 1 5 Other north-east Asia 213 24 213 24 South-East Asia 213 24 213 24 TWh 6 4 2 TWh 1 8 6 4 2 GW United States 1 8 6 4 2 213 24 213 24 GW Other Americas 25 2 15 1 5 213 24 213 24 TWh 2 5 2 1 5 1 5 TWh 1 8 6 4 2 Renewables mix varies across APEC, solar and wind see largest growth 11
Variable Renewable Integration Economy Share of variable renewables in total power generation 23 24 Australia 42% 49% Brunei Darussalam 8% 8% Canada 8% 8% Chile 21% 18% China 12% 16% Hong Kong, China 2% 2% Indonesia 3% 12% Japan 1% 12% Korea 8% 1% Malaysia 3% 3% Mexico 8% 9% New Zealand 21% 23% Papua New Guinea 6% 4% Peru 1% 1% Philippines, the 7% 6% Russia 2% 3% Singapore 1% 1% Chinese Taipei 9% 12% Thailand 7% 6% United States, the 21% 25% Viet Nam 4% 7% <Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) Integration> Most APEC economies can be categorized as Low Share, except for several economies such as Australia and United States. According to IEA: Low Share, No a big technical challenge to operate a power system under categorized Low Share (IEA,215). Large Share, The system-wide integration needs to be transforming in order to increase flexibility. Note: Low Share means that the share of VRE is 5-1% of annual generation. High Share means that the share of VRE is 2-45% of annual generation. 12
High Renewables in Transport 13
Biofuels in APEC Blend rate mandate Blend rate target Incentives, Economy Regulation subsidies Bioethanol Biodiesel Bioethanol Biodiesel and taxation Australia * * E4/E5* B2* Brunei Darussalam - - - - - - Canada up to E8.5** up to B4** E5 B2 Chile - - - - - - China - E1** - 1 Mt (22) 2 Mt (22) Hong Kong - - - - Indonesia E3 B1 E2 (225) B3 (225) Japan -.5 million Loe (217) Y Korea - B2 - B5 (22) Malaysia - B7 - B1 Mexico E2 - - New Zealand - - - - - - Papua New Guinea - - - - - - Peru - - E7.8 B5 The Philippines E1 B2 E2 (22) B2 (225) Russia - - - - - Singapore - - - - - - Chinese Taipei - - - - Thailand - - B7 4 billion L/yr 5 billion L/yr The United States up to E15** up to B1** 136 billion L/yr (222)** Viet Nam E5 *** E1 (217) - 14
Mtoe Share of biofuels Lack of Bioethanol Supply Potential 16 14 8% 7% Biodiesel demand 12 1 6% 5% Bioethanol demand 8 6 4 2 21 22 23 24 21 22 23 24 BAU High Renewables 4% 3% 2% 1% % Biodiesel supply potential Bioethanol supply potential Share of biofuels (right axis) Almost all economies can increase biofuels use in the transport sector. Advanced biofuel technologies needed, as higher supply potential based only on 1 st generation biofuels is insufficient to meet growing demand 15
Biofuels Demand and Supply Potential Bioethanol demand and supply potential Biodiesel demand and supply potential US has largest bioethanol supply potential, while South-East Asia has highest biodiesel supply potential. APEC biofuels trade is a must in short and medium term 16
Energy intensity index (25 base year) Improved Efficiency Scenario 14 13 12 11 1 9 8 232 237 7 6 5 4 45% reduction target 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 13% savings 921 Mtoe BAU Energy Intensity Index Alternative Energy Intensity Index APEC s target in 235 can be met earlier under the Improved Efficiency Scenario 17
Total CO 2 Emissions in APERC Scenarios Level of ambition of APEC energy targets need to be raised if global climate goal is to be achieved 18
Opportunities for Policy Action <Renewable Power Generation> Continue to improve business environment for renewables development as doing business in some APEC economies are still cumbersome. Strengthen and improve the economy s electricity system to facilitate greater VRE integration. <Renewable Transport> For enhancing biofuels trade among APEC member economies: Implement the guidelines for the development of biodiesel standard in the APEC. Establish similar standard for bioethanol. Establish biofuels blend rate standard for vehicles which can meet the standard of auto-manufactures. Introduce the development and deployment of advanced biofuels to promote greater utilisation of biofuels. 19
Thank you for your attention! APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook Release 11 May 216 available for download from http://aperc.ieej.or.jp/ 2