analysysmason.com RESEARCH FORECAST REPORT FIXED MOBILE CONVERGENCE IN EUROPE: TRENDS AND FORECASTS 2017 2022 ROMAN ORVISKY and ARIS XYLOURIS
About this report This report analyses multi-play services in ten European countries. It includes forecasts for the adoption of fixed broadband and pay-tv bundles, as well as expectations for the take-up of, and revenue from, fixed mobile converged (FMC) bundles in these countries. It is based on several sources, including: Analysys Mason s European Core Forecasts and European Telecoms Market Matrix research programmes, our Connected Consumer Survey data and our pay-tv forecasts secondary data, primarily from operators and regulators interviews with stakeholders. Western Europe: France Germany Italy Netherlands Portugal Spain UK GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE Central and Eastern Europe: Poland Romania Turkey KEY QUESTIONS ANSWERED IN THIS REPORT WHO SHOULD READ THIS REPORT What is the expected growth of FMC bundles in various European countries by 2022 among households, fixed broadband customer bases and mobile connections? What are the main drivers and operator incentives related to the take-up of FMC bundles? How do the dynamics vary by country? How prevalent are fixed broadband and pay-tv bundles and what role does TV play in these bundles? What is the average revenue per account (ARPA) and revenue that can be expected from FMC bundles between 2017 and 2022? How much of the market will be left for standalone plans? Integrated operators that have recently invested in fixed mobile convergence as part of their retail strategy and want to understand its growth potential. Mobile-only or fixed-only players that want to understand what proportion of their markets will be left outside the reach of FMC bundles by 2022. Investors who observe, or have stakes in, the current and potential consolidation developments related to convergence in Europe. Non-European operators that want to know more about the drivers of multi-play and FMC services, and wish to gain access to benchmarks. 2
The level of take-up of FMC bundles will vary household penetration will be highest in Spain, France and Portugal Figure 3: FMC bundle penetration of households and FMC SIMs as a proportion of all SIMs, selected countries in Europe, 2022 1 1 For a full list of multi-play- and FMC-related indicators in all ten countries, see the data annex that accompanies this report. Available at: www.analysysmason.com/fmc-forecast-europe-rdcs0. 3
CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY REGIONAL TRENDS COUNTRY-LEVEL TRENDS WESTERN EUROPE CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE FORECAST METHODOLOGY AND ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT THE AUTHORS AND ANALYSYS MASON 4
About the authors Aris Xylouris (Analyst) is the lead analyst of the Fixed Broadband Services programme and a key contributor to Analysys Mason's primary research for the Consumer Services research practice. His areas of specialisation include fixed broadband strategy, the bundling and pricing of multi-play and convergence services, customer satisfaction and consumer-facing marketing strategy. He also specialises in statistics, surveys and the analysis of primary research, and manages Analysys Mason's Connected Consumer Survey and Consumer smartphone analytics series of research. Roman Orvisky (Analyst) is a member of the regional markets research team in London, contributing to the Telecoms Market Matrix, European Core Forecasts, European Country Reports and Global Telecoms Forecasts programmes. Prior to joining Analysys Mason in November 2014, he worked in the Transaction Services department of the Royal Bank of Scotland in a customer experience internship role. During his studies, Roman focused on consumer behaviour in an online context, and has experience in churn modelling in the telecoms sector, social network analysis and browsing data analysis. Roman holds a Bachelor s degree in business from Durham University, and an MSc in marketing research from the Tilburg University School of Economics and Management. 5
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PUBLISHED BY ANALYSYS MASON LIMITED IN JANUARY 2018 Bush House North West Wing Aldwych London WC2B 4PJ UK Tel: +44 (0)20 7395 9000 Email: research@analysysmason.com www.analysysmason.com/research Registered in England No. 5177472 Analysys Mason Limited 2017. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without the prior written permission of the publisher. Figures and projections contained in this report are based on publicly available information only and are produced by the Research Division of Analysys Mason Limited independently of any client-specific work within Analysys Mason Limited. The opinions expressed are those of the stated authors only. Analysys Mason Limited recognises that many terms appearing in this report are proprietary; all such trademarks are acknowledged and every effort has been made to indicate them by the normal UK publishing practice of capitalisation. However, the presence of a term, in whatever form, does not affect its legal status as a trademark. Analysys Mason Limited maintains that all reasonable care and skill have been used in the compilation of this publication. However, Analysys Mason Limited shall not be under any liability for loss or damage (including consequential loss) whatsoever or howsoever arising as a result of the use of this publication by the customer, his servants, agents or any third party.