Fresno Council of Governments Sustainable Communities Strategy Scenarios
3 SCS Scenario Scenarios: A Scenario A Based on the input collected at the community workshop in November 2012 Metro vs. nonmetro growth ratio controlled More growth allocated to some small rural communities than historical trend 2
3 SCS Scenarios: Scenario B Based on the existing general plans, general plan updates, proposed land uses, and latest planning assumptions Growth allocation among cities takes into account historical trend Include development in Millerton New Town, Friant Ranch, and the proposed pharmacy school 3
3 SCS Scenarios: Scenario C Additional 4% of growth (compared to scenario B) allocated to City of Fresno along corridors and activity centers Growth for rural county areas allocated to 10 unincorporated communities: Biola, Caruthers, Del Rey, Easton, Friant, Lanare, Laton, Riverdale, Shaver Lake, and Tranquility Not included: Millerton New Town, Friant Ranch and the proposed pharmacy school 4
3 SCS Scenarios: Scenario D Developed by a Coalition of community organizations Growth reduced from the foothill communities and the City of Clovis and reallocated to existing cities and communities Not included: Millerton New Town, Friant Ranch and the proposed pharmacy school 5
SCS Scenarios-Transportation Projects Project Funding by Mode 43% 25% 30% 2% Transit Bike & Pedestrian Operations & Management Capacity Increasing 6
Growth Projection (From 2008 through 2035) Population growth: 378,140 more people Employment growth: 81,912 more jobs 7
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What is a Performance Indicator? Performance indicators provide quantified evidence of the consequences of a decision or action In the SCS process, performance indicators are used to measure the impacts of different planning scenarios 16
Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction (Per capita percent reduction against 2005) 14.0% 12.0% 12.6% 11.9% 11.9% 11.3% 13.2% 12.4% 12.5% 11.8% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 6.6% 8.6% 8.0% 8.2% 7.9% 8.4% 7.9% 2020 2035 4.0% 2040 2.0% 0.0% Status Quo Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C Scenario D 17
Housing (New Housing Growth from 2008-2035) 100% 90% 15% 80% 70% 7% 47% 38% 47% 39% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 78% 9% 44% 9% 53% 8% 45% 8% 52% Multi-family Town Homes Single Family 10% 0% Status Quo Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C Scenario D 18
Residential Density (new growth from 2008-2035) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 (housing units per acre of land) 7.8 8.2 8.1 7.1 4.5 Status Quo Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C Scenario D 19
Compact Development (new growth from 2008-2035) 35.0 30.0 25.0 (Average number of people per acre of land) 32.9 31.5 30.8 27.2 20.0 15.0 16.2 10.0 5.0 0.0 Status Quo Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C Scenario D 20
Transit Oriented Development (Percent Growth within ½ mile of Bus Rapid Transit for the growth from 2008-2035) 50.0% 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 43.7% 36.6% 42.3% 37.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 28.0% 21.3% 27.1% 18.2% Housing Employment 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 6.4% 12.2% 0.0% Status Quo Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C Scenario D 21
Land Consumption (new growth from 2008-2035) 25,000 20,000 22,308 In acres of land consumed due to new development 15,000 11,226 14,675 12,542 12,578 10,000 5,000 0 Status Quo Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C Scenario D 22
Important Farmland Consumed (by new growth from 2008-2035) 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 352 Acres of important farmland (Unique, Prime and State-wide importance) consumed due to new growth 90.6 37.6 27.4 Status Quo Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C Scenario D 109 23
Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) 20.8 20.6 20.4 20.2 20.0 19.8 19.6 19.4 19.2 19.0 (in millions of miles per day in 2035) 20.7 19.9 19.8 19.7 19.6 Status Quo Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C Scenario D 24
Criteria Pollutants Emissions (CO, ROG,NOX,PM2.5,& PM10) 45 40 41 (tons per day in 2035) 40 40 40 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 11.6 11.3 11.4 11.3 11.3 8.2 7.9 7.9 7.8 7.9 4.8 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Status Quo Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C Scenario D CO ROG NOx PM10 PM2.5 25
Active Transportation & Transit Travel (non-private auto trips per day in 2035) 200.0 180.0 160.0 140.0 120.0 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 (in thousand person trips) 180.0 175.3 177.2 177.7 138.0 57.1 56.2 56.7 57.1 48.7 49.2 47.2 48.8 49.1 40.7 Status Quo Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C Scenario D Transit Walk Bike 26
Scenario Indicators/Performance Measures Why are these important to me? If any of these issues are important to you, you should consider the indicators to the right Criteria Pollutants Emissions Transit Oriented Development Vehicle Miles Traveled Greenhouse Gases Land Consumption Compact Development Residential Density Important Farmland Consumed Housing types Active Transportation & Transit Travel Air quality & health Transportation choices Housing type options Farmland & resource conservation 27
Fresno Council of Governments www.fresnocog.org 559-233-4148 28