Virginia's Mountain Steams: What Thirty Years of Research tells us about Future Impacts of Acid Rain and Climate Change Todd Scanlon Jim Galloway Jack kcosby Rick Webb Drew Robison Department of Environmental Sciences University of Virginia Mountain Stream Symposium Mountain Stream Symposium James Madison University September 21, 2013
Shenandoah Watershed Study (SWAS) Jim Galloway George Hornberger Initiated in 1979 as a cooperative research venture with the U.S. NPS Outdoor laboratory
Hierarchy of Spatial and Temporal Scales Shenandoah Watershed Study (SWAS) 5 streams Sampled weekly 1979 present Virginia Trout Stream Sensitivity Study (VTSSS) 66 streams Sampled quarterly 1988 present Decadal Survey 341 streams Sampled d1987, 2000, and 2010
SWAS Objectives... to improve understanding of ecosystem processes in the forested mountain watersheds of Shenandoah National Park and the central Appalachian region... to detect and assess hydro-biogeochemical changes occurring in these relatively undisturbed ecosystems SWAS Core Program Watershed is the basic unit of study framework for process- based research Basis for regional extrapolation Longest watershed study in National Park system Made possible by strong cooperation with NPS and EPA
U.S. Emissions Source: EPA National Emission Inventory 40 ns, ons SO 2 emission ousands of t S tho SO 2 30 2 20 10 0 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 NO x emissio ons, th housands of tons 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 NO x 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
U.S. Emissions Source: EPA National Emission Inventory 40 ns, ons SO 2 emission ousands of t S tho SO 2 30 2 20 10 0 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 NO x emissio ons, th housands of tons 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 NO x 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
U.S. Emissions Source: EPA National Emission Inventory 40 ns, ons SO 2 emission ousands of t S tho SO 2 30 2 20 10 0 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 NO x emissio ons, th housands of tons 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 NO x 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Sulfate Ion Concentrations 1984 1985 1986 Source: National Atmospheric Deposition Program
Sulfate Ion Concentrations 1985 1986 1987 Source: National Atmospheric Deposition Program
Sulfate Ion Concentrations 1986 1987 1988 Source: National Atmospheric Deposition Program
Sulfate Ion Concentrations 1987 1988 1989 Source: National Atmospheric Deposition Program
Sulfate Ion Concentrations 1988 1989 1990 Source: National Atmospheric Deposition Program
Sulfate Ion Concentrations 1989 1990 1991 Source: National Atmospheric Deposition Program
Sulfate Ion Concentrations 1990 1991 1992 Source: National Atmospheric Deposition Program
Sulfate Ion Concentrations 1991 1992 1993 Source: National Atmospheric Deposition Program
Sulfate Ion Concentrations 1992 1993 1994 Source: National Atmospheric Deposition Program
Sulfate Ion Concentrations 1993 1994 1995 Source: National Atmospheric Deposition Program
Sulfate Ion Concentrations 1994 1995 1996 Source: National Atmospheric Deposition Program
Sulfate Ion Concentrations 1995 1996 1997 Source: National Atmospheric Deposition Program
Sulfate Ion Concentrations 1996 1997 1998 Source: National Atmospheric Deposition Program
Sulfate Ion Concentrations 1997 1998 1999 Source: National Atmospheric Deposition Program
Sulfate Ion Concentrations 1998 1999 2000 Source: National Atmospheric Deposition Program
Sulfate Ion Concentrations 1999 2000 2001 Source: National Atmospheric Deposition Program
Sulfate Ion Concentrations 2000 2001 2002 Source: National Atmospheric Deposition Program
Sulfate Ion Concentrations 2001 2002 2003 Source: National Atmospheric Deposition Program
Sulfate Ion Concentrations 2002 2003 2004 Source: National Atmospheric Deposition Program
Sulfate Ion Concentrations 2003 2004 2005 Source: National Atmospheric Deposition Program
Sulfate Ion Concentrations 2004 2005 2006 Source: National Atmospheric Deposition Program
Sulfate Ion Concentrations 2005 2006 2007 Source: National Atmospheric Deposition Program
Sulfate Ion Concentrations 2006 2007 2008 Source: National Atmospheric Deposition Program
Sulfate Ion Concentrations 2007 2008 2009 Source: National Atmospheric Deposition Program
Trends in atmospheric deposition Sulfate Ion Concentration Source: National Atmospheric Deposition Program 1984 1985 1986 2007 2008 2009 Nitrate Ion Concentration 1984 1985 1986 2007 2008 2009
Stream / Lake water monitoring
Trends in stream & lake composition (1990 2000) New England Lakes Adirondack Lakes Appalachian Streams Upper Midwest Lakes ------------------------------ Sulfate Acid Neutralizing Capacity -3.5-3.0-2.5-2.0-1.5-1.0-0.5 0.0 0.5-2.5-2.0-1.5-1.0-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 Slope of Trend (µeq/l/yr) Sulfate concentrations and acidity of surface waters in most regions have decreased in response to decreased dsulfur emissions i
Trends in stream & lake composition (1990 2000) New England Lakes Adirondack Lakes Appalachian Streams Upper Midwest Lakes Western Virginia Streams ------------------------------ Sulfate Acid Neutralizing Capacity -3.5-3.0-2.5-2.0-1.5-1.0-0.5 0.0 0.5-2.5-2.0-1.5-1.0-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 Slope of Trend (µeq/l/yr) Sulfate concentrations and acidity of surface waters in most regions have decreased in response to decreased dsulfur emissions i But not in western VA. In 2002 EPA told Congress that this should ERbe a red flag to regulators.
Fish Diversity in Shenandoah National Park Streams 10 Number of Fish Specie es 8 6 4 2 0-20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Minimum ANC (µeq/l; period of record) Source: Art Bulger, University of Virginia
ANC effect on Brook Trout populations ook trout abundance Adult bro Jastramet al., 2013
Estimated Critical Loads Long term damage to base cation states of soils Some locations may take centuries to recover, based on model estimates Webb, 2012 MAGIC used for estimates (Cosby)
Now for some positive news 341 brook trout streams sampled in 3 regional surveys: 1987, 2000, and 2010 Regional survey data:
Quarterly sampling trends Virginia Trout Stream Sensitivity Study (VTSSS) 66 streams Sampled quarterly 1988 present Rich getting richer (basaltic) Poor getting poorer (siliciclastic) Acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) Siliciclastic Basalt Granite
Quarterly sampling trends (continued) Streams with decreasing ANC (Continued Acidification) Continued acidification is driven by declines in base cations. ql 1 yr 1 ) rend in ANC (μe Tr Streams with increasing ANC (Acid Recovery) Acid recovery driven by declinesinstream stream sulfate. n ANC (μeq L 1 yr 1 ) Trend i Robison et al., in review
Predicting declines in sulfate (weekly data) Net SO 4 source PAIN: 2015 Cross over PINE: 2012 dt dates for SNP STAN: 2016 streams WOR1: 2021 DR01: 2017 Net SO 4 sink
Unexpected events: Gypsy moth defoliation Gypsy Moth Lymantria dispar 1988 1989 1990 1991 Source: U.S. Forest Service
Unexpected events: Gypsy moth defoliation White Oak Run, Shenandoah National Park
Unexpected events: Rapidan flood (1995) Staunton River
Emerging Issue: Climate Change Possible Impacts: Range of brook trout In stream metabolism Affect on acid/base status
Watersheds as outdoor laboratories Mercury deposition measurements in Big Meadows Mercury sampling in Staunton River
Future Plans Make data accessible online Deployment of in situ sensors Make data accessible in real time (satellite transmission)
Acknowledgments Shenandoah National Park Dominion Foundation U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Clean Air Markets Division Appalachian Stewardship Foundation Virginia Council of Trout Unlimited University of Virginia
Acknowledgments Susie Maben Rick ikwebb
Sulfur Dioxide (SO 2 ) Emissions in U.S. 35000 s, thousan nds of ton ns SO 2 emission 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 Source: EPA National Emission Inventory 0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Year