AT-RISK FLEXIBLE FOR DROUGHT: STOCKING IMPROVING FOR RANCHERS FLEXIBILITY DR. HAILEY JUSTIN WILMER DERNER USDA-ARS Rangeland Resources and Systems Research Unit Cheyenne, WY/Fort Collins, CO Haily.wilmer@ars.usda.gov
Flexibility ROAD MAP 1. Survey of strategies 2. Weather and climate tools 3. Forms of flexibility 4. Additional resources
THE CHALLENGE TO MATCH FORAGE SUPPLY AND DEMAND RANCHERS ARE MOSTLY REACTIVE
THE CHALLENGE TO MATCH FORAGE SUPPLY AND DEMAND RANCHERS ARE MOSTLY REACTIVE Drought Preparation Percent of ranchers (WY) Use weather predictions to adjust stocking rate 16 Grassbank 22 Incorporte Yearlings 28 Rest Pasture Conservative Stocking 47 48 Source: Survey of Wyoming Ranchers 2012, N= 307 Kachergis et al. Ecosphere 5(6):77.
THE CHALLENGE TO MATCH FORAGE SUPPLY AND DEMAND RANCHERS ARE MOSTLY REACTIVE Drought Response Percent of ranchers (WY) Place livestock in feedlot 15 Sell retained yearlings 24 Move livestock location 27 Rent pasture 42 Wean early 47 Purchase feed 63 Reduce herd size 80 Source: Survey of Wyoming Ranchers 2012, N= 307 Kachergis et al. Ecosphere 5(6):77.
BUILDING FLEXIBILITY TO DROUGHT WORKING WITH VARIABILITY 1. Anticipate it with conservative stocking rates 2. Predict variability using weather and climate forecasting 3. Track variability with flexible stocking strategies 4. Use spatial variability that already exists in the landscape across space 5. Create spatial variability to enhance benefits of grassbanking Source: Derner and Augustine, 2016. Rangelands, 38(4), 211-215. Open Access online: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rala.2016.05.002
PREDICT VARIABILITY FORECASTS AND TOOLS
PREDICT VARIABILITY FORECASTS AND TOOLS Rocky Mountain-High Plains Climate Dashboard http://wwa.colorado.edu/climate/ dashboard2.html PREDICT IT
PREDICT VARIABILITY FORECASTS AND TOOLS US DROUGHT MONITOR PREDICT IT
PREDICT VARIABILITY FORECASTS AND TOOLS US SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK PREDICT IT
PREDICT VARIABILITY FORECASTS AND TOOLS PRECIPITATION TEMPERATURE SEASONAL FORECASTS PREDICT IT
PREDICT VARIABILITY FORECASTS AND TOOLS LONGER TERM CLIMATOLOGICAL INFLUENES WARM PHASE PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO) WARM PHASE ATLANTIC MULTIDECADAL OSCILLATION PREDICT IT
PREDICT VARIABILITY FORECASTS AND TOOLS https://www.ncdc.noaa.g ov/teleconnections/pdo/ NOAA INFO ON PDO Chen et al. 2017
STAY INFORMED AND STAY ON TOP OF DROUGHT TIPS FOR ADAPTATION Triggers : Know what information will trigger a decision Check seasonal predictions and climate patterns Check seasonal temperature forecast Update forage estimate periodically in spring
TRACK VARIABILITY WITH FLEXIBLE STOCKING
TRACK VARIABILITY STRATEGIES FOR FLEXIBLE STOCKING 1. INCORPORATE YEARLINGS INTO COW-CALF OPERATIONS
TRACK VARIABILITY STRATEGIES FOR FLEXIBLE STOCKING 2. RETAIN MORE HEIFER CALVES IN THE FALL
TRACK VARIABILITY STRATEGIES FOR FLEXIBLE STOCKING 3. DRY COW GRAZING IN LATE SPRING AND SUMMER
USE AND CREATE VARIABILITY MOBILITY AND GRASSBANKING M. Hess
Preemptive contact with local/rural fire department Talk to first responders about livestock Ranch communication plan Map Help Logistics Livestock Evacuation routes Personal evacuation plan Wildfire risk WILDFIRE ACTION PLAN
FIRE DANGER RATING USFS WILDLAND FIRE ASSESSMENT SYSTEM https://www.wfas.net /index.php/firedanger-rating-firepotential--danger-32 WFAS
ADDITIONAL TOOLS NETWORK, COMMUNICATE, MONITOR
DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS CSU EXTENSION
WHEN DROUGHT IS HERE EMERGENCY ROOM 1. Use your planning: Triggers 2. Risk management 3. Record keeping/learning
WHEN TO PULL THE TRIGGER HOLD YOURSELF ACCOUNTABLE
THE CHALLENGE TO MATCH FORAGE SUPPLY AND DEMAND RANCHERS ARE MOSTLY REACTIVE Drought Response Percent of ranchers (WY) Place livestock in feedlot 15 Sell retained yearlings 24 Move livestock location 27 Rent pasture 42 Wean early 47 Purchase feed 63 Reduce herd size 80 Source: Survey of Wyoming Ranchers 2012, N= 307 Kachergis et al. Ecosphere 5(6):77.
RISK MANAGEMENT: WHEN DROUGHT IS HERE USDA RISK MANAGEMENT PROGRAMS
Livestock Forage Disaster Program (LFP) through USDA-FSA For grazing losses on: Dryland pasture due to qualifying drought Fed lands due to qualifying fire How to qualify: Drought Monitor based Simply file a Final Acreage Report with FSA by Nov 15 th!
Livestock Indemnity Program (LIP) through USDA-FSA For excess livestock deaths due to: Adverse weather (not drought) Anthrax (during drought) How to qualify: Submit notice of loss w/in 30 days
Emergency Assistance for Livestock & Honeybees Program (ELAP) through USDA-FSA For losses due to: Adverse weather (hail, flood, pvt fire) not covered by other disaster programs Feed/water shortages Diseases How to qualify: Submit notice of loss w/in 30 days Apply to FSA for pymt by Nov 1 st
RECORD KEEPING AND LEARNING FOR USDA PROGRAMS AND ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT
STAY FLEXIBLE, STAY PROFITABLE DON T GET CAUGHT IN A RUT QUESTIONS? Hailey Wilmer USDA-Northern Plains Climate Hub Fellow Hailey.wilmer@ars.usda.gov