Updated Energy and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Results of Fuel Ethanol Michael Wang Center for Transportation Research Energy Systems Division Argonne National Laboratory The 15 th International Symposium on Alcohol Fuels San Diego, CA September 26-28, 2005 Argonne National Laboratory is managed by The University of Chicago for the U.S. Department of Energy
U.S. Fuel Ethanol Production Has Experienced Large Increases, and the Trend Will Continue 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Millions of gallons 2011 2012 Actual Production Energy Bill Requirement Source: Renewable Fuels Association
Argonne Has Conducted Life Cycle Analyses of Transportation Fuels for More Than 25 Years Its Center for Transportation Research has analyzed energy and emission effects of transportation fuels for DOE since 1980s With DOE support, Argonne began to develop the GREET model in 1995 GREET is a life cycle model for transportation fuels and vehicle technologies It contains more than 85 transportation fuel pathways including four fuel ethanol pathways GREET is in the public domain; there are more than 2,000 registered users worldwide Since 1997, Argonne has used GREET to evaluate fuel ethanol s energy and emission effects; this presentation summarizes updated GREET results for fuel ethanol 3
Comparative Results Between Ethanol and Gasoline Are More Relevant to Policy Debate 4
Even Though Electricity Has a Large Negative Net Energy Balance, There Is No Substitute for Its Main Uses Coal NG Uranium Petroleum Coal Mining Diesel Fuel Electricity NG NG Recovery LPG, NGLs Uranium Ore Recovery Diesel Fuel Electricity NG Petroleum Recovery Coal Transportation Diesel Fuel NG Electricity NG Electricity NG Processing NG Transmission Uranium Ore Transportation Uranium Enrichment Diesel Fuel Residual Oil NG Electricity Refinery Gas NG Coal Electricity Petroleum Transportation Petroleum Refinery Other Petroleum Products Uranium Fuel Transportation Residual Oil Diesel Fuel NG Electricity Residual Oil Transportation Electricity Generation Electricity Transmission and Distribution (8% loss) 1 mm Btu of Electricity at Wall Outlets U.S. Electricity Generation: 2.34 mm Btu Fossil Energy Input for each 1.00 mm Btu Electricity Output 5
Energy in Different Fuels Can Have Very Different Qualities Fossil Energy Ratio (FER) = energy in fuel/fossil energy input Increase in Energy Quality 10.31 2.0 1.5 1.0 1.36 0.5 0.98 0.81 0.45 0.0 Cell. Coal Gasoline Electricity 6
Accurate Ethanol Energy Analysis Must Account for Increased Productivity in Farming Over Time Bushels/lb. Fertilizer 0.65 0.60 0.55 0.50 0.45 0.40 U.S. Output Per Pound of Fertilizer Has Risen by 70% in The Past 35 Years? Precision farming, etc.? 0.35 0.30 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Based on historical USDA data; results are 3-year moving averages 7
Improved Technology Has Reduced Energy Use and Operating Costs in Ethanol Plants 70,000 60,000 1980s 2000s 50,000 Btu/Gallon 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Wet Mill Dry Mill Source: from Argonne s discussions with ethanol plant designers, recent USDA data, and other reported data. 8
One-Third of Kernel Mass Ends as Animal Feed (a Co-Product) in Ethanol Plants Starch Ethanol 2003 North American DDGS Consumption Protein Distillers Dry Grains and Solubles (DDGS) Dairy: 46% Beef: 39% Poultry: 4% Swine: 11% Carbon Dioxide Source: Commodity Specialist Co. (in RFA, 2005) 9
Accounting for Animal Feed Is a Critical Factor in Ethanol s Lifecycle Analysis Allocation Method Wet milling Dry milling Weight 52% 51% Energy content 43% 39% Process energy 36% 41% Market value 30% 24% Displacement ~16% ~20% Weight and energy methods are no longer used Argonne uses the displacement method, the most conservative approach Some studies do not consider co-products at all 10
Cellulosic Ethanol Plants Will Be Significantly More Efficient than Ethanol Plants Emissions Emissions Biomass Feedstock Pretreatment Fermentation Separation Fuel Ethanol Wastewater Emissions Solid Residue and Methane Wastewater Treatment Emissions Power Plant: Gas and/or Steam Turbine Steam Electricity Effluent Discharge Plants under intensive R&D efforts are designed to use the unfermentable portion of biomass to generate steam and electricity. 11
2.5 2.0 Energy Effects of Fuel Ethanol Depend on the Type of Energy Being Analyzed Total Energy Btu for Fuel Production Btu in Fuel 1.5 1.0 Fossil Energy Petroleum Energy 0.5 0.0 RFG : DM : WM Cell. RFG : DM : WM Cell. RFG : DM : WM Cell. Total Btu Spent for One Btu of Gasoline and Ethanol Available at Fuel Pumps 12
Use of Ethanol to Replace Gasoline Results in Fossil Energy and Petroleum Reduction Benefits 60% 40% Total Energy 52.3% 20% 24.3% Fossil Energy Petroleum Energy 0% 2.1% 4.7% -3.2% -6.5% -6.3% -6.3% -20% -32.9% -40% -60% -69.1% -69.5% -70.0% -80% E10 GV: E10 GV: Cell. E85 FFV: E85 FFV: Cell. E10 GV: E10 GV: Cell. E85 FFV: E85 FFV: Cell. E10 GV: E10 GV: Cell. E85 FFV: Change in Per-Mile Energy Use by Ethanol Blend to Displace Gasoline E85 FFV: Cell. 13
Ethanol Blends, Especially E85 Made from Cellulosic Ethanol, Can Significantly Reduce GHG Emissions 0% -2% -2% -6% -20% -23% -17% -40% -60% -64% -80% E10 GV: DM E10 GV: WM E10 GV: Cell. E85 FFV: DM E85 FFV: WM E85 FFV: Cell. Reductions in Per-Mile GHG Emissions by Ethanol Blend to Displace Gasoline 14
Reduces GHGs by 18-29% While Cellulosic Yields 85-86% Reduction, on Per Gallon Basis of Used 0% -20% -40% -26% -18% -29% -21% -60% -80% -85% -86% -100% E10 GV: DM E10 GV: WM E10 GV: Cell. E85 FFV: DM E85 FFV: W M E85 FFV: Cell. GHG Emission Reductions Per Gallon of Ethanol to Displace An Energy-Equivalent Amount of Gasoline 15
Most of the Recent Studies Show a Positive Net Energy Balance 60,000 40,000 20,000 Marland&Turhollow Lorenz&Morris Shapouri et al. Agri. Canada Wang et al. NR Canada Shapouri et al. Wang Kim &Dale Kim &Dale Graboski De lucchi Wang Net Energy Value (Btu/gallon) 0-20,000-40,000-60,000-80,000 Weinblatt et al. Chambers et al. Ho Keeney&DeLuca Pim entel Pim entel Pim entel Patzek Pim entel &Patzek GREET w/pimentel Assumptions -100,000-120,000 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Energy balance here is defined as Btu content a gallon of ethanol minus fossil energy used to produce a gallon of ethanol 16
Energy Balance Results of Ethanol Depend Heavily on System Boundary Choices Operation-Related Activities: Fertilizer, Farming, Transportation, Ethanol Production, Ethanol Transportation, Energy Use for Producing Process Fuels 17 Food Intake by Farmers Ethanol Plant Materials and Construction Solar Energy Embedded in Biomass Farming Equipment Materials and Manufacture
The Debate on Energy Balance Itself May Have Little Practical Meaning Though self evaluation of a fuel s energy balance is easy to understand, to do so for a fuel in isolation could be arbitrary All Btus are not created equal. The energy sector has been converting low-value Btus into high-value Btus, with energy losses Society has not made energy choice decisions on the basis of energy balance values of individual energy products Issues of concern, such as petroleum consumption and GHG emissions, should be analyzed directly for fuel alternatives A complete, robust way of evaluating a fuel s effects is to compare the fuel (e.g., ethanol) with those to be displaced (e.g., gasoline) 18
Most Studies on GHG Emissions Show GHG Emission Reduction by as Compared to Gasoline 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% 19 GHG Changes EPA (1990): E100 EPA (1990): E85 Ho (1990): E100 Marland (1991): E100 Delucchi (1991): E100 Ahmed (1994): E100 Delucchi (1996): E95 Wang (1996): E100 Wang (1996): E85 Wang (1997): E85 Agri. Can. (1999): E85 Delucchi (2001): E90 Wang (2003): E85 Deluchi (2003): E90 Wang (2005): E100 Kim&Dale (2005): E100 NR Canada (2005): E100
Of the 11.8 Billion Bushels of Produced in U.S. in 2004, About 12% Was Used for Ethanol Production U.S. Usage by Segment 2004 Feed/Residual: 56.4% Export: 18.5% Ethanol: 11.7% High Fructose Syrup: 5.2% Starch: 2.7% Sweeteners: 2.2% Cereal/Other: 1.8% Beverage/Industrial Alcohol: 1.3% Seed: 0.2% The U.S. produced 3.41 billion gallons of fuel ethanol in 2004, equivalent to 2.28 billion gallons of gasoline In 2003, the U.S. consumed 134 billion gallons of gasoline and 39 billion gallons of on-road diesel fuels Source: ERS/USDA, 2004, Feed Outlook (in RFA, 2005); EIA 20
M il. dry tons per year A Recent Study by Oak Ridge National Laboratory Concludes 1.3 Billion Tons of Biomass Available in U.S. Per Year 400 Total: 998 mil. Dry tons 120 Total: 368 mil. Dry tons 300 100 80 200 60 100 40 20 0 0 21 products industry wastes Forest growth Fuel treatments (forestlands) Logging and other residues Urban wood residues Fuelwood Forest P erennial c rops stov er Grains to biofuels W hea t stra w S oybeans Othe r c rop res idues Othe r re sidue s M anures CR P biomas s S ma ll gra in residues
The Energy Bill Encourages Production of Cellulosic Ethanol Creates a credit-trading program where 1 gallon of cellulosic ethanol is equal to 2.5 gallons of renewable fuel Creates a program for production of 250 million gallons of cellulosic ethanol in 2013 Creates a Loan Guarantee Program of $250 million per facility Creates a $650 million Grant Program for cellulosic ethanol Creates an Advanced Biofuels Technologies Program of $550 million Information is courtesy of the Renewable Fuels Association 22
Conclusions Energy balance value for a given energy product alone is not meaningful in evaluating its benefit Any type of fuel ethanol helps substantially reduce fossil energy and petroleum use, relative to petroleum gasoline -based fuel ethanol achieves moderate reductions in GHG emissions Cellulosic ethanol can achieve much greater energy and GHG benefits 23