Dr. Fatih Birol Executive Director, International Energy Agency Istanbul, 15 December 2017
Tipping the energy world off its axis Four large-scale upheavals in global energy set the scene for the new Outlook: The United States is turning into the undisputed global leader for oil & gas Solar PV is on track to be the cheapest source of new electricity in many countries China s new drive to make the skies blue again is recasting its role in energy The future is electrifying, spurred by cooling, electric vehicles & digitalisation These changes brighten the prospects for affordable, sustainable energy & require a reappraisal of approaches to energy security There are many possible pathways ahead & many potential pitfalls if governments or industry misread the signs of change
India takes the lead, as China energy growth slows Change in energy demand, 2016-40 (Mtoe) United States -30 Central and South America 270 Europe -200 Africa Middle East 485 480 135 Eurasia India 1 005 China 790 Japan -50 Southeast Asia 420 Old ways of understanding the world of energy are losing value as countries change roles: the Middle East is fast becoming a major energy consumer & the United States a major exporter
.. A as world China motion.. moves global energy markets, again Change in world energy demand by fuel 2 500 Coal (Mtce) 30 Oil (mb/d) 2 000 Gas (bcm) Low-carbon (Mtoe) 2 000 2 000 24 1 600 1 600 1 500 18 1 200 1 200 1 000 12 800 800 500 6 400 400 0-500 1990-2016 2016-40 1990-2016 2016-40 1990-2016 2016-40 China 1990-2016 2016-40 Other countries 1990-2016 2016-40 Low-carbon sources & natural gas meet 85% of the increase in global demand: China s switch to a new economic model & a cleaner energy mix drives global trends
Solar PV forges ahead in the global power mix Global average annual net capacity additions by type Coal 2010-2016 Gas Nuclear Renewables Solar PV Wind Other Coal Gas 2017-2040 Nuclear Renewables 20 40 60 80 100 120 GW Solar PV Wind Other 20 40 60 80 100 120 GW 140 160 GW China, India & the US lead the charge for solar PV, while Europe is a frontrunner for onshore & offshore wind: rising shares of solar & wind require more flexibility to match power demand & supply
The future is electrifying Electricity generation by selected region Sources of global electricity demand growth China United States India Other European Union Southeast Asia Middle East Africa 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 TWh 2016 Growth to 2040 Electric vehicles Large appliances Connected & small appliances Industrial motors Cooling India adds the equivalent of today s European Union to its electricity generation by 2040, while China adds the equivalent of today s United States
mb/d Million cars EVs are on the way, but oil demand still keeps rising Electric car fleet Change in global oil demand 300 200 Other countries United States India European Union China 16 12 8 Petrochemicals Aviation and shipping 100 4 Trucks 2016 2025 2040 0 Passenger cars Other sectors - 4 2016-2040 Electric cars are helping to transform energy use for passenger cars, slowing the pace of growth in global oil demand: however, trucks, aviation, shipping & petrochemicals keep oil on a rising trend
US becomes undisputed leader of oil & gas production Oil and gas production in the United States mboe/d 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 Shale oil Shale gas Other unconventionals Conventional oil & gas 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 The US is already switching to become a net exporter of gas & becomes a net exporter of oil in the 2020s, helped also by the demand-side impact of fuel efficiency & fuel switching
LNG ushers in a new global gas order Global Gas importers exporters gas trade 1 230 bcm in 2040 706 bcm in 2016 Russia & Caspian Europe 52% Middle East Africa 39% shipped by US LNG & Other Australia Canada Asia 37% Other Russia & Caspian Europe 35% Other US & Canada 59% shipped by LNG Middle East Asia 60% Africa Australia Other Growing gas import requirements in developing Asia, Japan and Korea are largely met by LNG, with exports from the US accelerating a shift towards a more flexible, liquid global market
Gt A new strategy for energy & sustainable development 40 Global CO 2 emissions by scenario New Policies Scenario 30 Sustainable Development Scenario 20 Sustainable Development Scenario 10 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 The Sustainable Development Scenario reduces CO 2 emissions in line with the objectives of the Paris Agreement, while also tackling air pollution and achieving universal energy access
Stronger policies for a more sustainable world 875 million electric vehicles The Sustainable Development Scenario in 2040 2times more efficient than today 3250GW global solar PV capacity 580bcm additional gas demand Only 15% additional investment is required to 2040 to achieve the Sustainable Development Scenario, with two-thirds of energy supply investment going to electricity generation & networks
Conclusions The oil & gas boom in the United States is shaking up the established order, with major implications for markets, trade flows, investment & energy security The versatility of natural gas means that it is well placed to grow, but it cannot afford price spikes or uncertainty over methane leaks China continues to shape global trends, but in new ways as its energy revolution drives cost reductions for a wide range of clean energy technologies Our strategy for sustainable energy shows that concerted action to address climate change is fully compatible with global goals on universal access & air quality Electrification & digitalisation are the future for many parts of the global energy system, creating new opportunities but also risks that policy makers have to address
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