PRIMES Biomass model projections Apostolaki E., Tasios N., DeVita A.,Capros P. March 2012 This paper is prepared under the Biomass Futures project funded by the Intelligent Energy Europe Programme.
Summary Analyses based on scenario cases quantified with the PRIMES Biomass model in the course of the Biomass Futures project presents results both for the time period 2020-2030, but also for the longer term decarbonisation targets to 2050. The quantification of the scenarios revealed that the NREAPs projections submitted by Member States regarding bio-energy commodities demand can be met for the most part with the currently available technologies. However, the increased demand for gaseous biomass projected by the NREAPs strains the biomass feedstock potential significantly. Under stricter sustainability criteria the achievement of the 20-20-20 targets is demanding as technologies for the production of 2 nd generation biofuels have to develop strongly at a very fast pace. The additional sustainability criteria applied have milder effects on the achievement of the long term decarbonisation objectives. The paper also examines the case of increased demand for biofuels due to a delay in the electrification of transport sector in the longer term. The analysis revealed that such a demand can be met, but that the total cost of the biomass supply chain is increased and the sustainability of the scenario is questionable due to high land use required for the production of energy crops and high amount of imports. Introduction In 2008 the European Commission introduced the Climate & Energy package that sets mandatory targets of 20% renewable energy sources penetration in gross final energy consumption and 20% greenhouse gas emissions savings compared to 1990 levels by 2020. Furthermore, in the Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050 1 the European Council confirmed its commitment to a greenhouse gas emissions reduction of 80-95% compared to pre industrial levels. Biomass is anticipated to play a major part in achieving the 20-20-20 targets as well as the long term decarbonisation objectives. This paper addresses several policy questions regarding the effect that different policies would have on the biomass supply system. In order to determine the impact of measures promoting renewable energy sources and addressing climate change the economics of supply of biomass and waste for energy purposes were simulated with the PRIMES Biomass model. Scenarios To analyze the way different policies and measures affect the biomass supply system several scenarios were constructed; here the three main variants will be analyzed. A variant of the Reference scenario that utilizes the demand for bio-energy commodities as it comes from PRIMES energy system model was constructed, using the energy demand derived from the National Renewable Energy Action Plans (NREAP). In order for the impacts of the implementation of stricter sustainability criteria on the achievement of the short and long term targets to be analyzed, a scenario that imposes more stringent sustainability criteria including the accounting of indirect land use (ILUC) emissions was constructed. Last, a scenario that simulates a maximum biomass case 1 EC (2011), Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050
was constructed, based on the assumption that the electrification of private cars anticipated to occur by 2050 will be delayed, resulting in an increased dependency of the transport sector on biofuels for all transport means. Table 1 presents all scenarios quantified in the course of Biomass Futures project and shows the policies and targets included in every scenario. Table 1: Scenarios description Scenario name Policies included Targets 2020 Targets 2050 Updated Reference RES directive 2 Fuel quality directive 3 Biofuels directive 4 20% RES 5 20% GHG 6 - Reference with NREAP demand Same as Reference scenario Demand is taken from NREAPs 20% RES 20% GHG - Updated Decarbonisation Sustainability Maximum Biomass Same as Reference scenario Additional measures are assumed to enhance agricultural production Same as Decarbonisation scenario Enhanced sustainability criteria: - GHG savings requirement of 70% in 2020 and 80% from 2030 onwards - ILUC emissions are taken into account in emissions calculations - sustainability criteria apply to also solid and gaseous biomass used in electricity and heat sectors Same as Decarbonisation scenario Maximization of use of RES in all sectors Delay in transport electrification 20% RES 20% GHG 20% RES 20% GHG 20% RES 20% GHG 85% GHG domestic emission reduction 85% GHG domestic emission reduction -85% GHG domestic emission reduction 2 EC (2009), Directive 2009/28/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources. http://eur-lex.europa.eu/lexuriserv/lexuriserv.do?uri=oj:l:2009:140:0016:0062:en:pdf 3 EC (2009). Directive 2009/30/EC as regards the specification of petrol, diesel and gas-oil and introducing a mechanism to monitor and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. http://eur-lex.europa.eu/lexuriserv/lexuriserv.do?uri=oj:l:2009:140:0088:0113:en:pdf 4 EC (2003), Directive 2003/30/EC on the promotion of the use of biofuels or another renewable fuels for transport. http://eur-lex.europa.eu/lexuriserv/lexuriserv.do?uri=oj:l:2009:140:0088:0113:en:pdf 5 20% RES: 20% renewable energy sources penetration in gross final energy consumption 6 20% GHG: reduction of 20% GHG emissions compared to 1990 levels
NREAP scenario analysis: Are the biomass resources sufficient to deliver the demand for bio-energy commodities projected by the NREAPs? The NREAP scenario utilises the demand for bio-energy commodities as submitted by the Member States in the National Renewable Energy Action Plans. The scenario assumes the successful implementation of the Energy & Climate package policies; no additional measures are considered beyond 2020. In order for the 20-20-20 targets to be accomplished, a 62% increase in total bioenergy demand takes place in 2020 compared to 2010 levels. The substantial increase in demand leads to the increase of domestic production of feedstock and of imports of biomass feedstock, as well end bio-energy products; in 2020 net imports of EU expressed as final bio-energy commodities represent 20% of total. Furthermore, the amount of land cultivated for the production of energy crops increases and is expected to more than triple compared to land use for bio-energy purposes in 2010. Moving towards 2050, as no additional measures beyond the ones of the Climate and Energy package are assumed, the changes in total demand are not significant; 2050 bio-energy demand is 8% higher compared to the 2020 levels. This results to milder changes compared to the ones occurred between 2010 and 2020 in the land use for the cultivation of energy crops and in imports levels. The demand projected by the NREAPs for 2020 is higher than the Reference scenario 7 demand by 7%. The most significant difference between the two scenarios demand lies in the demand for gaseous bio-energy commodities, namely biogas, biomethane and waste gas; the NREAPs project 25% higher demand for gaseous bio-energy products in year 2020 than the PRIMES energy system model. This leads to straining the potential of feedstock used for the production of biogas to a great extent. The vast majority of Member States exploits existing waste potential to their full extent. As feedstock originating from waste and residues is used to the utmost, more expensive kinds of feedstock are also utilised, making the supply of the biomass system with feedstock for the biogas production more costly and effort consuming for the Member States. At the same time, a strong intensification of the use of landfill gas and sewage, used as feedstock for waste gas, has to take place in several countries. Overall, the available landfill and sewage potential has to be exploited to the maximum by almost every Member States so as the demand for gaseous biomass to be met. The quantification of the impacts of the policies and measures implemented in the context of the NREAPs scenario revealed that most bio-energy commodities are produced with technologies which are commercially available today. The NREAPs scenario requires the development of second generation biofuel technologies such as facilities with Fischer-Tropsch synthesis so as to meet the demand, although the majority (98.5% of total demand and 90% of biofuel for road transport demand) of bio-energy commodities are produced with technologies which are commercially available today such as transesterification, fermentation and anaerobic digestion. 7 The Reference scenario obtains bio-energy demand from PRIMES energy system model
Sustainability scenario analysis: Can the 2020 and 2050 demand still be achieved and what are the necessary developments of bio-energy industry? In order to test the effect stricter sustainability criteria would have on the biomass supply system, a sustainability scenario was constructed. The additional to the current legislation sustainability criteria applied in this scenario are described in Table 1. The effect of the stricter sustainability criteria starts to show in 2020 and particularly effects the production of biofuels. Due to the stricter sustainability criteria a strong development of the 2 nd generation biofuels production technologies is essential to take place in order for the 2020 targets to be met. The fact that indirect land use change (ILUC) emissions are taken into consideration together with the stricter GHG emissions thresholds applied in this scenario leads to a substantial decrease of the cultivated biomass feedstock for 1 st generation biofuels; production of sugar, starch and oil crops for bio-energy purposes reduces by 82% in 2020 compared to 2010 levels. Lignocellulosic crops are assumed to have minimal effects on ILUC as they can be cultivated on marginal or degraded land, therefore the accounting of ILUC emissions does not affect the development of lignocellulosic crops. The total cultivated land for the production of energy crops in 2020 is 2.5 times more than in 2010; the land for sugar, starch and oil crops reduces dramatically and is 82% less than in 2010, as these crops cannot achieve the emissions reduction targets set, whereas the production of lignocellulosic crops develops rapidly and the land dedicated to lignocellulosic crops represents 93% of the total cultivated land for biomass purposes already in 2020. The stricter sustainability criteria are assumed to apply to imported products as well. As a result, palm oil stops being imported, as it is assumed not to comply with strict sustainability criteria, after 2020. Biodiesel and bioethanol imports increase in 2020, in order for the high demand to be met. Under the stricter conditions the achievement of the 20-20-20 targets is only possible if the development of production of fuels from lignocellulosic crops is strongly boosted already from 2015, as in 2020 a substantial amount of 2 nd generation biofuels is required so as the demand to be satisfied; the demand for 2 nd generation biofuels is about 42% of total biofuel for road transportation demand. The sustainability scenario is constructed in the decarbonisation scenario context. In order for the long term decarbonisation target of 85% domestic GHG emission reduction to be met the demand for bio-energy commodities increases substantially beyond 2020. In 2050 the total demand for bioenergy is 135% higher than 2010 levels and approximately 1.5 times higher than the 2020 levels. The increase of demand causes a strong increase of the domestic production of feedstock and land use for energy purposes. The latter is almost 300% more than in 2010 and amounts to approximately 32MHa, 98% of which is used for the production of lignocellulosic crops. The strict sustainability criteria imposed to the biomass supply system lead to a strong rise of the 2 nd generation biofuels demand; in 2050 2 nd generation biofuels are assumed to replace 1st generation biofuels to a great extent and represent 85% of the total liquid biofuels for transportation mix; in a case without stricter sustainability criteria the percentage is close to 60%. This implies that bioenergy commodity production evolves towards more sustainable biofuels anyhow independently of the existence of sustainability criteria when higher emission reduction targets need to be achieved.
Obviously, such a sustainability scenario is only possible under the assumption that the cultivation of lignocellulosic crops takes place on land which causes few ILUC related emissions. If stricter sustainability criteria are applied already in the time period to 2020, it is essential that technologies for the production of 2 nd generation biofuels develop rapidly as a great amount of 2 nd generation biofuels is required in 2020 to meet the demand. The long term decarbonisation targets of the scenario however are easier to achieve as they are based on the development of the lignocellulosic crops production and the 2 nd generation biofuels production technologies are assumed to develop anyhow to this time horizon. Maximum Biomass scenario analysis: What would be the effect of increased demand of biofuels compared to the decarbonisation scenario? The increased demand for biofuels was simulated with the Maximum Biomass scenario, which represents a projection in which the development of electric vehicles is slowed down and therefore the transport sector has to rely strongly on the use of biofuels also for private passenger cars, to achieve strong emission reductions. Also, a maximisation of the use of RES in all sectors is assumed reaching approximately a 90% RES share in gross final consumption in the EU. The trends in the maximum biomass scenario until 2020 are similar to the ones of the reference scenario as until 2020 no additional policies and measures are assumed besides the ones of the Climate & Energy package. Beyond the year 2020, the pursue of the long term decarbonisation objectives, along with the increase in the biofuels demand caused by the delay of the electrification of the private cars leads to a substantial increase of the total demand for bio-energy commodities. The demand for final bioenergy commodities is projected to triple in 2050 compared to 2010 levels. In order for the very high demand to be met, the domestic production of every feedstock increases due to additional policies in the agricultural sector and R&D which lead to higher yields. The demand for 2 nd generation biofuels increases substantially reaching 57% in the total biofuels for road transportation mix in 2050. Thus the production of lignocellulosic feedstock also increases strongly; in 2050 domestic production of lignocellulosic crops represents 87% of energy crops and more than triples compared to the 2020 levels. In 2050 technologies using aquatic biomass as feedstock which are assumed to have developed, account for 5% of total domestic production. In 2030 the production of biokerosene for aviation begins and in 2050 approximately 24Mtoe are produced domestically in EU and 3Mtoe are imported. This scenario uses almost the complete potential of available land assumed for energy crops cultivation. In 2050 38.6MHa of land are cultivated for energy purposes representing approximately 85% of total available land. The amount of land used in the Maximum Biomass scenario in 2050 is 70% more than the respective projection for land use in NREAPs scenario. While most domestic resources are exploited to the greatest extent, the remaining demand is met by imports; therefore, the contribution of imports to the total mix of bio-energy commodities rises
dramatically. In 2010 the share of imports to the total final bio-energy products was 5% and it grows to reach a 29% share in 2050. The sustainability criteria applied on this scenario are not the strict criteria of the sustainability scenario. The demand for bio-energy commodities of this scenario is so high that under stricter sustainability criteria (e.g. accounting of ILUC related emissions) it would most probably not be met. Overall, the high level of imports and land use for the production of energy crops make the sustainability of this scenario debatable. Scenarios comparison: Total costs The following table shows the cumulative total cost of the biomass supply chain of each of the three scenarios analysed for the time periods 2011-2020 and 2021-2050 expressed in billion euros. The total cost includes the production of feedstock, the cost of biomass processing and the cost of imports and exports activity. The feedstock production cost includes cost for collection, pretreatment and transportation. The cost of processing includes capital costs, O&M costs for all transformation steps and the cost of energy consumed in the various processes. Table 2: Cumulative costs Scenario 2011-2020 2021-2050 2011-2050 billion NREAPs 919 4028 4947 Sustainability 949 5115 6065 Maximum Biomass 902 6258 7160 The scenario with the highest cost in the time period 2011-2020 is the Sustainability scenario. High costs are due to the fact that a much stronger and more rapid development in technologies not currently mature commercially is essential for the scenario demand to be met compared to the other two scenarios. This indicates that the 20-20-20 targets are more difficult to be achieved in the context of the sustainability scenario compared to the NREAPs and the Maximum Biomass scenarios. Moving towards 2050, the Maximum Biomass scenario becomes more costly as it has to achieve much higher demand than the other two scenarios. Overall, for the whole time period analysed the scenario with the highest cost is the Maximum Biomass scenario. The total cost of the biomass supply chain in the context of the Maximum Biomass scenario is 18% higher than the cost of the Sustainability scenario and 45% higher than the respective cost of the NREAPs scenario. Conclusive remarks The analysis has found that both the achievement of the 20-20-20 targets, incl. the NREAPS, and the long-term decarbonisation targets are achievable under the assumption of increased land use from current levels and would be facilitated by the development of 2 nd generation biofuel production to a lesser or greater extent.
The NREAPs scenario uses for the most part technologies already commercially available today. The development of biomass conversion technologies for the production of 2 nd generation biofuels is necessary to fully meet the 20-20-20 targets, but overall 2 nd generation biofuels represent only a small part of the total demand (approx. 10% of the total demand for biofuels used in road transportation). Under stringent sustainability criteria the demand for 2 nd generation biofuels increases strongly and until 2050 they are assumed to satisfy almost the entire demand for biofuels. Such a sustainability scenario is only possible assuming that technologies using lignocellulosic crops as a feedstock, for the production of biofuels, develop rapidly, as the demand for 2 nd generation biofuels is already high in 2020; further the cultivation of lignocellulosic crops has to occur on land causing few ILUC related emissions. The provision of very high amounts of biomass in case of slower development in electric vehicles for the transport sector is possible only by using almost all available land for bio-energy cultivations and substantially increasing the amount of imports. Also in this scenario, strong development of 2 nd generation fuel production is necessary. However, the sustainability of this scenario is debatable, due to the high land use and the high level of imports. Furthermore, the development of 2nd generation technologies needs to occur at an early stage.