Development of a Need- and Future-oriented Technology radar for Sustainable Energy Technologies, a helping tool for decision processes Carmen Dienst, Wuppertal Institute; Research Group Future Energy and Mobility Structures, carmen.dienst@wupperinst.org Prof. Dr. Manfred Fischedick, Vice-President of Wuppertal Institute and Director of Research Group Future Energy and Mobility Structures Willington Ortiz, Wuppertal Institute; Research Group Future Energy and Mobility Structures Abstract The current debates on future perspectives of the energy system, energy security, climate change as well as reduction of energy poverty is clearly linked to the urgent need for a broader implementation of sustainable energy technologies (SET). Although climate technology development and deployment is a core element in order to achieve effective global climate change mitigation, broad technology transfer and exchange of experiences is currently retarded (UNFCCC 2006). Various studies on renewable energy technologies do exist, but comprehensive overviews of their applicability and future potential are few and far between. With its new technology radar the initiative WISIONS, run by Wuppertal Institute, aims at developing a scientifically founded source of information on sustainable energy technologies. Beginning with a look at basic needs such as heat, electrification, cooking and lighting, the platform addresses future potentials of existing and future technologies to satisfy the associated energy demand. Key questions raised are focusing on the future prospects related to technical, economical, ecological and social issues as well as the global relevance and mitigation potential of the considered technology solutions. Basis of technology radar platform is a database management system, which will be transformed to a web-based systematic structured overview of the needs and give guidance for finding appropriate technology solutions for the users. It will also provide links to related information on documents and existing examples of successful implementation. 1 WISIONS initiative - Background and approach 1.1 Background to WISIONS initiative Present energy systems, which are mostly based on fossil fuels, are not sustainable and have problems to handle current and coming energy-related problems like energy security, gender and social issues as shown for example in the close connection between lack of energy access and poverty, or employment creation (Goldemberg 2004). Furthermore, current patterns of energy generation and consumption threaten the environment on local as well as on global scale and lead to aggravation of climate change. Moreover, the burden of environmental degradation falls disproportionately on developing countries. Poor people often live in the most ecologically sensitive environments, which make them especially vulnerable to environmental degradation and the adverse effects of climate change (UNDP 2005). Additionally, these people often do not have access to energy: two
billion people live without clean, safe cooking fuels and must depend on traditional biomass sources; 1.7 billion are without electricity (UNDP 2004). Sustainable energy and efficient use can help in solving major local and global problems. In many cases, introducing modern technologies for energy production and use can directly or indirectly mitigate environmental damage (like deforestation, GHG emissions, pollution due to fossil fuel exploration and transportation or indoor pollution), can support the provision of basic needs (cooking, heating, lighting, and so on) and can support productive activities (manufacture, industry, commerce, and so on). Even though energy is only one determinant of poverty and development, it is a vital one (UNDP 2004). The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) constitute a set of quantitative targets for reducing extreme poverty and for improving education, health and gender equality by 2015, and provide the benchmarks for measuring progress (UNDP 2007). Although energy is not addressed directly in the eight MDGs, it is widely accepted that access to clean and affordable energy is a prerequisite to achieving sustainable development and reducing poverty (UNDP 2004). Though most of the renewable energy growth has been in grid-connected power systems so far, renewable energy technologies are well suited for off-grid regions to provide modern energy services for low-income people (UNDP 2005). Especially small technical solutions for remote areas are possible through the use of existing resources on location. Regarding the broad portfolio of the technologies, solutions for different conditions from a geographical, climate and society view can be found. Some technologies are well tested and due to a decrease of costs, they are also ready for a large-scale introduction in remote areas of developing countries, like biogas use for decentralised cooking and electricity; small and micro hydro systems for electricity, PV for local electricity or solar collectors for water and space heating (REN21 2008). To improve access to and knowledge on sustainable energy especially in developing countries, the initiative WISIONS has been founded in 2004. 1.2 WISIONS initiative Approach and activities WISIONS is an initiative of the German Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment, Energy, carried out with the support of the Swiss foundation ProEvolution, and has the purpose of fostering practical sustainable energy projects with the main field of activity in developing countries and emerging economies. Since 2004 the initiative WISIONS has been actively promoting the introduction of sustainable energy solutions and resource efficiency through two different approaches. The realization of new and innovative sustainable energy projects has been supported under SEPS - Sustainable Energy Project Support - and parallel, WISIONS has identified and disseminated existing success stories of implemented sustainable projects under the PREP - Promotion of Resource Efficiency Projects. The results of both approaches are shortly presented in the following paragraphs. SEPS Since its formation five years ago, WISIONS has launched an annual call for SEPS applications. Following its successful conception in 2004, SEPS has become well-
established as a supporting scheme for sound and innovative sustainable energy projects. For the third round of applications, in 2006, the total annual grant fund was increased to 500,000. Since its inception, the numbers of project applications has grown substantially, from 40 in the first year to over 180 in 2008. A total of 47 SEPS projects have so far been selected for support, covering a broad array of innovative sustainable energy solutions in more than 36 countries. The projects supported range from village electrification in Peru to a showcase project of efficient street lighting systems in India or to promotion of solar food processing cooking in various countries as well as to the demonstration of a first small scale biogas plant in Jordan (see www.wisions.net) PREP The other part of WISIONS, the Promotion of Resource Efficiency Projects (PREP), primarily focused on fostering means and concepts for improving resource and energy efficiency. From 2004 to 2008 WISIONS also launched 12 PREP calls, inviting the submission of goodpractice examples in the field of sustainable energy and resource efficiency. People around the world were invited to apply with their good practice examples. The topic and the target groups varied on periodical basis with the objective of addressing a wide range of issues. The most convincing projects were promoted among multipliers, political decision-makers, scientists and activists through brochures and via Internet. In doing so, the projects get the publicity they deserve and provide certain ideas worldwide to improve the efficient use of resources. Each call focused on one particular topic in this field and, following the successful publication of a dozen interesting and comprehensive issues filled with more than 50 good practice projects from all over the world. In 2008 WISIONS has decided to close PREP and to take a step forward. The experience gained by WISIONS, through its engagement in various project types, regions and technologies, shows that additional, detailed and quality technology-specific information, as well as examples of successfully implemented technologies, is essential - but often lacking. Therefore, WISIONS is taking a step forward by focusing on sustainable energy technology issues through the proposed new WISIONS technology radar. 2 Technology radar 2.1 Background and purpose of the radar Within the beginning of the new century renewable energy installed capacity have performed an impressive growth. Some technologies grew at average rates of 15-30% annually between 2002 and 2006 (REN21, 2008). The case of grid-connected PV solar is the most outstanding, with an average annual rate of 60% for the same period. However, the global demand for energy is rising at such rapid pace, that the share of all renewables in the world s primary energy supply, showed a stagnancy or even slightly decrease with 12,9% in 2006 compared to 13,2 % in the year 2000. At the same time the use of fossil energy sources is still increasing, according to IEA (2008a). Therefore, if the contribution of the energy sector to the anthropogenic climate change is to be (at least) stabilized up to 2020, a faster introduction of renewable energy technologies in the world energy system will be required.
The experience gained so far in WISIONS, highlight the need of improving the knowledge and information transfer among the different actors involved in the process of SET implementation. Several studies can be found, which explore the potentials of different energy technologies for the configuration of future sustainable energy systems. Most of them summarize their findings by discussing the potential shares of different energy sources in the global energy supply. Prominent examples are IEA (2008b), Greenpeace (2007) and WBGU (2004). Technological perspectives, expected cost developments and climate change mitigation potential are key issues evaluated in these studies. Due to their focus on the energy supply, the analyses cover mainly technologies applied in the first steps of the energy supply chain, e.g. resource conditioning and electric power generation. Comprehensive overviews illustrating the linkage between energy-related human needs, technological solutions and renewable energy resources are rather scarce. There s thus a need for studies that illustrate the diversity and interrelations of technological options, which can be applied along the whole energy provision chain. Additionally, giving the multidimensional challenges coupled with the development of energy systems, decision makers need a wider pool of criteria in order to evaluate the suitability and sustainability of technology solutions. Beyond the technical and economical feasibility the related CO 2 equivalent emissions, information about other environmental effects as well as social impacts become crucial in order to evaluate or to design strategies for the introduction of cleaner energy technologies. The purpose of the proposed Technology Radar is to address these aspects and allow a more efficient information transfer for different interests and for stakeholders that are involved in the introduction of innovative technologies in the energy provision system of a target region or population 1. 2.2 Guiding questions The Technology Radar is proposed as a tool to systematically identify and classify renewable energy technologies on any stage of development, which can be applied for tackling specific energy-related needs. The guiding questions of the radar can be stated as follows: How to meet energy-related need through the application of technical feasible solutions given the availability of specific energy resources? What are the future perspectives of the technological development and which economic costs are associated to the implementation? Which environmental impacts are related to the application and use of the single technologies? What are the potentials of the technologies to contribute to the meeting of local and global challenges like climate change mitigation and fair and sustainable generation of wealth? 1 Although the overall aim of WISIONS is not only to look at the renewable energy options, but also to promote the energy and resource efficient use of existing technologies, the radar is focussing on renewable energy technologies and does not include energy efficiency technologies based on fossil fuels.
And what is the global relevance of the technology? 2.3 Methodology To answer these questions the Radar operates iterative. Starting point of the operation is the definition of a target need. This defines a specific (energy-related) need (see 2.4.1) that should be met through current available or future promising technology solutions. Once the target need is defined the operation of the Radar consists of four tasks: 1. Searching of technology solutions Single technologies and special technology systems are listed and pre-classified according to their potential to provide solution to the target need. Review Literature will be reviewed in detail with special focus on case studies. 2. Screening technologies with better future perspectives Evaluation of the relevance of each technology solution for the energy system of the future through special criteria: Ecological impact; envisaged technical and economical development; climate change mitigation; impacts on the global energy system, MDGs and on the social networks. The screening and analyses is done by review of relevant studies and by consulting experts. 3. Recording of the results The outcomes of the analysis are integrated and reprocessed in order to generate new information sources (in different forms and for different audience) on the specific target need. With a transparent and comprehensive presentation of the different needs in the web, and as well in well-prepared brochures, different stakeholders shall be addressed. 4. Spreading the results The huge dissemination network, that was built up within the last five years of WISIONS will be addressed, including various stakeholder groups like project coordinators, NGOs, politicians and interested public, through the web presentation and the brochures. In addition the interested scientific world can be informed through conferences and is invited to comment on the system and results for the different needs assessment in conferences. 2.4 Data Management System In order to storage and manage the information flows during the different stages a data management system (DMS) has been developed. The structure of the DMS reproduces the general structure of any energy provision system as illustrated in Figure 1. Energy resources must experiment a whole transformation process before the adequate energy form can be provided and applied to meet an specific (energyrelated) need. The three main (collection of) objects involved in such a system are: Needs, Technologies and Energy (i.e. the different energy forms). And these are also the main component of the DMS.
Figure 1 General structure of energy provision systems 2.4.1 The Energy Needs The concept Energy Needs refers to a collection of standard applications of energy for a wide range of sectors. Energy is a quite transversal issue that touches upon different activities of human life. Figure 2 shows the initial proposed structure of this collection. Figure 2 General structure of the collection energy needs Although an issue like electrification does not strictly belong to end applications of energy, the Technology Radar accounts it within the energy needs collection, regarding the essential role that the provision of electricity has on modern life. 2.4.2 The Energy Technologies The concept technology refers to a complex collection of objects, methods and skills related with a wide range of human activities. In order to address the universe of energy technologies and identify its elements and relations, they were classified in eight fields: 1) extraction/collecting, 2) conditioning, 3) transportation, 4) transformation, 5) storage, 6) distribution, 7) demand reduction, 8) end application
The provision of energy can be seen as a chain of interconnected single technologies. Thus each energy technology can be represented as a block that is related to other blocks (technologies), to resources (at the beginning of the chain) and to one or more needs (at the end of the chain) through appropriate interfaces. The relations can be of two types: 1) due to the exchange of energy among the components of the energy provision chain and 2) relations within a hierarchical family of technologies. A schematic view of the defined technology-block is illustrated in Figure 3. Figure 3 Schematic view of a technology-block 2.4.3 The collection Energy Forms Along the energy provision chain the energy is transferred and transformed. The different stages of transformations are gathered in the collection energy forms. For the development of the Radar, energy forms where subdivided in three categories: 1) primary energy (i.e. the primary energy sources), 2) secondary energy (includes all the transformation stages of energy before the end use), 3) useful energy. 2.5 Reference system The answer to the guiding questions can be presented as a reference system, where the identified potential technology portfolio is schematic illustrated. This offers a comprehensive overview along the whole energy provision chain, as shown in Figure 4 for the target need electrification at a village scale.
Figure 4: Example of a reference technology system for the target need electrification at a village scale 3 Conclusions and Outlook The proposed Technology Radar is expected to provide a scientifically founded source for efficient information transfer on renewable energy technologies. It shall serve as helping tool among the different actors with basic (energy-related) needs, project developers or actors involved in the energy business as well as for other interested stakeholders (NGOs, politicians). So far the key tool of the Technology Radar, the Data management system has been developed, based on the former selection of key needs, energy technologies and energy forms. The further results, success and long-term acceptance of the radar depend mainly on the appropriate data, consistent development and filling. In the phases to come, the team will focus on this appropriate and scientifically based completion. Beginning with a look at basic needs such as heat, electrification, cooking and lighting, the platform addresses future potentials of existing and future technologies to satisfy the associated energy demand. Key questions raised are focusing on the future prospects related to technical, economical, ecological and social issues as well as the global relevance and mitigation potential of the considered technology solutions. It will provide links to related information on documents and existing examples of successful implementation. Giving this integrative approach, the new radar can help assessing the overall advantages and impacts of these energy technologies and thus lead to a more complex view on the
different sustainable low-carbon options 2. It provides a clear illustration of the relation between the availability of energy resources and the applicability of the energy technologies. The appropriateness of the technologies to serve the existing current and future demand can thus lead to a more founded selection process. It will thereby lead to the fostering and broader introduction of renewable energy technologies and can try to help achieving the overall target for emission abatement and mitigation. The combined approaches within WISIONS of supporting not yet realized project ideas (SEPS), present already implemented successful projects (PREP) and offer comprehensive information on future technology solutions form an effective and adequate concept of multiplying knowledge and actions in crucial areas of sustainable development, especially in sustainable energy. But it is also obvious that this initiative can only be a drop in the ocean and in the years to come a lot of effort on a global scale will be needed to help reducing energy poverty, change traditional energy systems and broadly disseminate sustainable energy technologies. 4 References Goldemberg, José (2004): The Case for Renewable Energies. Thematic Background paper prepared for the International Conference for Renewable Energies, Bonn 2004. Greenpeace, European Renewable Energy Council (EREC), Energy Revolution: a Sustainable World, EREC, 2007 IEA (2008a): World Energy Outlook 2008, International Energy Agency (IEA), 2008 IEA (2008b): Energy Technology Perspectives 2008 - Scenarios & Strategies to 2050, International Energy Agency, 2008 REN21 (2005): Energy for Development. The Potential Role of Renewable Energy in Meeting the Millennium Development Goals. Paper prepared for the REN21 Network by the Worldwatch Institute. Lead Authors: C.Flavin & M. Hull Aeck. REN21 (2008): Renewables 2007 - Global Status Report, Renewable Energy Policy Network for the 21st Century (REN21), 2008 UNDP (2004): World Energy Assessment, overview: 2004 update. UNDP (2005): Energizing the Millennium Development Goals A Guide to Energy s Role in Reducing Poverty. New York UNDP (2007): Human Development Report 2007/2008 UNFCCC (2006): Synthesis report on technology needs identified by Parties not included in Annex I to the Convention. FCCC/SBSTA/2006/INF.1 WBGU, World in Transition - Towards Sustainable Energy Systems, German Advisory Council on Global Change, 2004 2 The term low-carbon is recently used in scientific papers, public articles and on the political arena, but with different meanings. In our view it is not sufficient to look just at the reduced combustion of carbon and thus the reduced emissions of CO 2 (equivalent), but to include also other environmental aspects as well as economic and social issues. Thus we d like to stress that the overall sustainability of the technologies and projects is a basic criteria of WISIONS and for the analysis within the radar.