Part 1: Sustainability in the Electricity Sector Franz Trieb MBA Energy Management, Vienna, September 9-10, 2010 Folie 1
A Scenario for Sustainability www.ren21.net Folie 2
Studies: MED-CSP TRANS-CSP AQUA-CSP Assessment of the renewable energy potential for the sustainable supply of electricity and water in 50 countries of Europe, the Middle East and North Africa taking into consideration the option of Concentrating Solar Power (CSP). Folie 3
50 Countries in EUMENA analysed Europe (EU) Scandinavia Western Europe Eastern Europe South-Eastern Europe Western Asia North Africa Arabian Peninsula Middle East & North Africa (MENA) Folie 4
Gross Electricity Consumption [TWh/y] 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Electricity Demand in Europe Population x 1 Economy x 2 Efficiency x 1.5 Demand x 1.1 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year www.dlr.de/tt/trans-csp Difference to Trend Norway Sweden Finland Iceland Denmark United Kingdom Ireland Germany Switzerland France Netherlands Luxembourg Belgium Austria Portugal Spain Italy Greece Bosnia-Herzegovina Serbia & Montenegro Croatia Macedonia Slovenia Turkey Romania Hungary Bulgaria Slovak Republic Czech Republic Poland Folie 5
Gross Electricity Consumption [TWh/y] 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Electricity Demand in MENA Population x 2 Economy x 5 Efficiency x 1.1 Demand x 5 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year www.dlr.de/tt/med-csp Diff.to Trend Morocco Algeria Tunisia Libya Egypt Yemen UAE Saudi Arabia Qatar Kuwait Bahrain Oman Syria Lebanon Jordan Israel Iraq Iran Folie 6
Water Demand in MENA Freshwater Demand [billion m³/y] 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 Demand x 1.8 Deficit x 3 Industrial Municipal Agricultural Sustainable Water Used 500.0 450.0 400.0 350.0 300.0 250.0 200.0 150.0 100.0 50 50.0 0 0.0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Year 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 www.dlr.de/tt/aqua-csp Folie 7
Criteria for Sustainable Electricity Supply: Inexpensive low electricity cost no long term subsidies Secure diversified and redundant supply power on demand based on inexhaustible resources available or at least visible technology capacities expandable in time Compatible low pollution climate protection low risks for health and environment fair access Folie 8
Renewable Energy Technologies Hydropower Geothermal Concentrating Solar Power Biomass Tides Waves Photovoltaic Wind Power http://www.erneuerbare-energien.de/inhalt/36983/35338/ Folie 9
Principle of a Concentrating Conventional Thermal Solar Thermal Power Power Plant Plant Concentrating Solar Collector Field (Mirrors) Solar Heat Thermal Power Cycle (e.g. Steam Turbine) Fuel Electricity Thermal Energy Storage Process Heat concentrated, easily storable solar thermal energy as fuel saver spinning reserve firm capacity, power on demand combined generation of process heat for cooling, industry, desalination, etc. Folie 10
Portfolio of Energy Sources for Electricity: Coal, Lignite Oil, Gas Nuclear Fission, Fusion Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Geothermal Power (Hot Dry Rock) Biomass Hydropower Wind Power Photovoltaic Wave / Tidal ideally stored primary energy storable primary energy fluctuating primary energy Folie 11
Renewable Electricity Potential in Europe, Middle East & North Africa Biomass (0-1) Geothermal (0-1) Solar (10-250) Max Wind Energy (5-50) Hydropower (0-50) Min Electricity Yield in GWh/km²/y Folie 12
Economic Renewable Electricity Potentials vs. Demand in EUMENA 16000 > 630000 Electricity in TWh/y 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 How Does a Sustainable Mix Look Like? Solar Geothermal Hydro Wind Biomass Wave/Tide Desalination MENA Europe 0 Potentials Demand 2000 Demand 2050 Folie 13
Installed Capacity [GW] 2400 2000 1600 1200 800 400 Installed Capacity vs. Peak Load in EUMENA 5000 h/a 2000 h/a Import/Export Desalination 0 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year 2400 Photovoltaic 2000 1600 1200 800 400 Wind Power Geothermal Hydropower Biomass Tidal/Wave CSP Oil & Gas Coal Nuclear Firm Capacity Peak Load 100 % availability plus 25 % reserve capacity www.dlr.de/tt/trans-csp Folie 14
Firm Power Capacity based on Renewables and Fuel (no fossil or nuclear base load supply) 60 50 Power Supply [GW] 40 30 20 10 0 25.6. 26.6. 27.6. 28.6. 29.6. 30.6. 1.7. Combined Heat & Power Domestic Renewables Solar Import Import & Pump Storage Balancing Power (fossil) Surplus Hourly Model Germany 2050 (Brischke 2005) Folie 15
High Voltage Direct Current Transmission Voltage: ± 800.000 Volt Power: 6400 Megawatt Length: 2070 km Source: Hydropower Losses: 7-8% Construction: 2 years http://www.abb.com http://www.siemens.com Folie 16
Trans-Mediterranean High Voltage Direct Current Electricity Grid: Interstate Highways for Renewable Electricity in EUMENA EUMENA: Europe Middle East North Africa www.desertec.org Folie 17
Availability and Redundancy Power on Demand by a Mix of Fluctuating and Balancing Sources Increased Number of Non-Correlated Energy Sources Increased Number and Reduced Average Size of Power Plants Increased Number of Supply Regions Additional HVDC Grid Infrastructure for Long-Distance Transfer Domestic Sources Dominate the Electricity Mix Non-depletable Sources Dominate the Electricity Mix Strategy is Based on Proven Technologies Folie 18
Carbon emissions of EUMENA power sector are reduced to 38 % until 2050 in spite of a quickly growing demand CO2-Emissions in Mt/y 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year Avoided Import Solar Photovoltaics Wind Geothermal Hydropower Wave / Tidal Biomass CSP Plants Oil / Gas Coal Nuclear 1% of Land Area Required Folie 19
Environmental Security Reduced Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Power Generation Reduced Risks of Nuclear Radiation and Proliferation Reduced Local Pollution by Combustion Products Optimal Land Use (1%) through Diversified Mix Technology based on Recyclable Materials Folie 20
Equipment Cost Learning Curves Nuclear Decommissioning Cost National Audit Office UK Nuclear Decommissioning Authority UK 11 GW Capacity 61 Billion of 2007 = 6000 /kw WETO 2003, NAO 2008 Folie 21
Fuel Cost Perspectives? Coal Price www.oilnergy.com Folie 22
Electricity Cost Learning Curves (example Spain) Electricity Cost [c/kwh] 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year Import Solar Photovoltaics Wind Wave / Tidal Biomass Geothermal Hydropower CSP Plants Coal Oil Gas Nuclear www.dlr.de/tt/trans-csp Folie 23
Electricity Cost (Example Spain) Electricity Cost [c/kwh] 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 Investment Phase Profit Phase 4.0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year TRANS-CSP Mix BaU Mix 2000 2000, Fuel Cost: IEA / WEO 2005, after 2020 CCS Folie 24
Economic Security Economic Risk Hedged by Increased Portfolio Intrinsic Trend to Lower Cost and Lower Price Volatility Energy Cost Stabilization through Investment in New Sources Prevention of Cost Escalation due to Environmental Constraints Prevention of Cost Escalation due to Scarcity Reduction of Energy Subsidies in Europe and MENA Folie 25
Electricity Supply in Europe (TRANS-CSP Scenario) 4500 Electricity [TWh/y] 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 Import Solar Photovoltaics Wind Geothermal Hydropower Biomass Wave / Tidal CSP Plants Oil Gas Coal Nuclear 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year www.dlr.de/tt/trans-csp Folie 26
Import Dependency of European Power Generation Energy Import for Power Generation 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Import Dependency in TRANS-CSP Scenario Current Trend of Import Dependency Year www.dlr.de/tt/trans-csp Folie 27
Electricity Supply in the Middle East & North Africa 4500 Electricity [TWh/y] 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 Desalination Export Solar Photovoltaics Wind Geothermal Hydropower Biomass Wave / Tidal CSP Plants Oil / Gas Coal Nuclear 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year www.dlr.de/tt/med-csp Folie 28
AQUA-CSP Scenario for Middle East & North Africa 600 Water Consumption [Bm³/y] 500 400 300 200 100 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Natural Water Used Wastewater reused Fossil Fuel Desalination Groundwater Over-Use CSP Desalination Efficiency Gains www.dlr.de/tt/aqua-csp Folie 29
Solar Power & Desalination Plants HVDC Line Conventional AC Grid Energy, Water, Food, Labor and Income for further 300 Million People in MENA? (artist view created with Google Earth) Folie 30
Political Security Conflict Prevention between EU and MENA Reducing Pressure on Fuels Conflict Prevention in MENA Solving Energy and Water Scarcity Conflict Prevention in Europe Increasing Energy Diversity Reduction of European Energy Import Dependency Addition of Energy Corridors for European Supply Initiating EU-MENA (Energy) Partnership Folie 31
Challenges Requires New Structures and New Thinking (Change of Paradigm) Requires Long-Term Financing Schemes due to Long-Term Investments Based on International Cooperation and Interdependencies Higher Complexity than Using Ideally Stored Fossil Energy Sources More Stakeholders Involved due to Decentralized Generation Cultural and Political Differences in EUMENA Lobby Groups Acting Against Each Other Speed of Environmental Change and Conflict Potentials Folie 32
Global Achievements www.ren21.net Folie 33
Renewable Share of Global Final Energy Consumption in 2008 www.ren21.net Folie 34
World Power Generating Capacity in 2009 by Source www.ren21.net Folie 35
New Power Capacity added Worldwide in 2008-2009 by Source www.ren21.net Folie 36
Renewable Power Capacities in 2009 www.ren21.net Folie 37
Global Wind Power Capacity Expansion up to 2009 www.ren21.net Folie 38
Wind Power Existing and Added in 2009 in Top 10 Countries www.ren21.net Folie 39
Global Photovoltaic Power Capacity Expansion up to 2009 www.ren21.net Folie 40
Existing Photovoltaic Capacity in Top 6 Countries www.ren21.net Folie 41
Annual Investment into Renewable Energy Capacity www.ren21.net Folie 42
www.protermosolar.com Folie 43
Existing CSP Capacity in 2009 and Planned Additions until 2015 www.estelasolar.eu Folie 44
Existing and Added Renewable Energy Capacity in 2009 www.ren21.net Folie 45
Jobs in Renewable Energy Industry in 2009 www.ren21.net Folie 46