The Great Rivers of the Northeast! Greater could be the Benefits!!

The Great Rivers of the Northeast! Greater could be the Benefits!!

Northeast India CEA Water Resources, Climate Change, and Opportunities Tapas Paul (SASDI)

CEA to NOW Request to Bank in 2004 CEA 2005-06. Completed 2007. Dissemination 2008 Request to Bank now for Investment on Institutions Water Resources management Biodiversity Conservation KNOWLEDGE

A case of resource curse? Water resources alone adequate for economic development for small countries: 1/3rd of India s total water resources 60,000 MW (or more) hydropower potential Can potentially double domestic product (17 times for Arunachal) Significant groundwater resources, wetlands 300,000ha open water fisheries But, Lowest income, low growth region 25 35% people poor Trust deficit within the region Two-way trust deficit with the Union Identity politics; conflicts, insurgency

But where are the benefits? Flood Damages 8 million people affected every year Erosion & Landslide Damages 8,000ha productive land lost each year Irrigation only about 20% of potential (India -57%) Groundwater potential developed 4.6% (India 32%) Irrigation declining in Assam & Arunachal Pradesh Drinking water 50% people not covered Electricity consumption 192 GWh/p (592 GWh/p India); 76% villages connected (India 84%) Fisheries 30% of potential (400,000 MT); (Traditional) Open water fisheries declining; Wetlands under threat Climate change - Probable 14% decline in water

Location of Brahmaputra basin is significant and impact of global climate change, e.g., temperature contrast would appear earlier in such a geo-environmentally vulnerable watershed than other regions

Global temperature is very likely to increase between 1.8 C and 4 C by the year 2100 (IPCC, 2007) Climate signals observed over India in last 100 years show an increase in surface temperature by 0.3 C, a change in the spatial pattern of rainfall with respect to normal, and occurrence of more intense and frequent extreme temperature, rainfall and cyclone events (UNFCC, 2004) Simulated average change in rainfall (mm/day) for 2071 2079 under SRES A2 scenarios from PRECIS relative to baseline 1961 1990 Simulated average change in rainfall (mm/day) for 2071 2079 under SRES B2 scenarios from PRECIS relative to baseline 1961 1990

Downscaled spatial temperature anomalies from the climate normal 1961-1990 based on the average of 6 GCMs for 2020, 2050 and 2080 Downscaled spatial precipitation anomalies from the climate normal 1961-1990 based on the average of 6 GCMs for 2020, 2050 and 2080

1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 Temperature ( C) Temperature ( C) Rainfall (mm) 1951 1955 1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 Temperature ( C) Temperature ( C) Rainfall (mm) Regression slope and Mann-Kendall (M-K) rank statistics Temperature ( 0 C) Station Maximum Minimum Slope M-K Slope M-K Guwahati +0.002 0.0024 +0.0124 0.3290* Dibrugarh +0.007 0.1735 +0.0177 0.4065* Season Guwahati Dibrugarh Slope M-K Slope M-K Pre-monsoon -0.26-0.011-1.59-0.080 Monsoon -1.01-0.060 +2.18 0.048 Post +0.68 0.208* -1.50 0.148 monsoon Winter 0.34 0.133 +0.31-0.058 Annual -0.25-0.027-0.51 0.041 31 (a) GUWAHATI 24 3000 2500 (a) Guwahati 29 27 25 Maximum Minimum 22 20 18 2000 1500 1000 500 23 16 Year Year 30 28 (b) DIBRUGARH Maximum 22 20 3500 3000 2500 (b) Dibrugarh 26 24 22 Minimum 18 16 2000 1500 1000 Year Annual mean maximum and minimum temperature at (a) Guwahati (b) Dibrugarh airport station (broken straight lines indicate linear trend) Year Annual rainfall at (a) Guwahati and (b) Dibrugarh airport station (broken straight lines indicate linear trend)

Flood damage in Assam during 1953-2006

Preliminary Results (!!) Annual mean maximum temperature showed a warming trend at both the stations 0.002 C year -1 at Guwahati and 0.007 C year -1 at Dibrugarh 1999 recorded the highest annual mean maximum temperature both at Guwahati (30.5 C) and Dibrugarh (29.3 C) Mean minimum temperature had increased by a rate of 0.012 C year -1 at Guwahati and 0.018 C year -1 at Dibrugarh Increase in mean minimum temperature was significant at both stations Decrease in annual rainfall throughout the period At Guwahati, rainfall during pre-monsoon & monsoon seasons showed a decreasing trend while it showed an increasing tendency during post-monsoon and winter seasons

Preliminary Results (!!) Temperature as a facilitator of water borne infection during and after flood, can adversely affect water and sanitation problems in the Brahmaputra valley NE region of India accounts for only 3.7% of India s population, but the region accounts for 10% of confirmed malaria cases and 13-41% of all malaria related deaths

IMPLICATIONS More than 12% river flow in Brahmaputra is due to glacial melt (IUCN et al., 2003; Chen et al. 2007) With a 2 C increase by 2050, 35% of the present glaciers will disappear and Runoff will increase, peaking between 2030 and 2050 (Qin, 2002) With increase in runoff, intensity of floods will increase

CEA RECOMMENDATIONS For development & growth in the Northeast NE resources will not lead to growth and development unless institutional mechanisms are right Water resources management (looking at multiple objectives) is most important From a River basin management point of view, the ESSENTIALS: Addressing incomplete and inaccessible knowledge regarding Water Resources Management experience: without active cooperation by States no development or management of northeastern rivers is possible New or restructured institutions built on decentralization, participation, transparency and with changed goals and responsibilities

CEA RECOMMENDATIONS Development in North East Depends on Systems to assess costs and benefits of Actions & Inactions Knowledge systems Systems to distribute benefits State to State State to Communities [Aim of a Project is not electricity, but social & economic development] Systems to share costs Or, better, systems to engage in joint actions

OTHERS RECOMMENDATIONS Climate Action Plan for the Basin A realistic simulation of climate change in the region Regional action plan & decentralization of decisionmaking Regional cooperation in water, food and energy security Transboundary cooperation and networking of transboundary climate institutions Public platform for collaboration

Water Resources Development in North East Depends on PDO - Support the GoI and particularly its eight Northeastern States to Develop and manage its water resources in an optimized manner, For multipurpose development To boost economic development of the lagging states Project cost - $400 million + (2 phases) PCN Status Received from GOI Formal agreement received Planning Commission, Ministries of External Affairs, Home Affairs, Water Resources, Environment & Forests, and others State Governments Challenge for us is to know how to crack the nut!!!

NE Water Resources Development and River Basin Institutions Project (FY12) Component 1: Compr. River Basin Institutional Dev. Establishment and capacity building of a River Basin Organization Development of the RBO operational mechanisms and instruments Strategic coordination, strengthening and operational support to multi-states water institutions Component 2: Regional Water Resources Dev. /Planning Northeastern multi-states water resources knowledge base Capacity building investments Implementation of flood warning systems River Basin and sub-basins strategic planning Component 3: Local Level Water Resources Dev. Afforestation and erosion control in degraded hill areas; Rehabilitation and extension of small irrigation schemes; Rehabilitation of small water infrastructure for communities watershed management, rain water harvesting Non-structural activities in flood prone areas for risk reduction Communities capacity building and empowerment