Syria. Food Security. Quarterly Update. October-December 2016

Syria Food Security Quarterly Update October-December 2016

Key Issues 2 High intensity conflict remains the key trigger for food insecurity in Syria, causing displacements, inflation and high cost of living, eroded purchasing power of population, fragmented markets, disrupted production and collapsed safety nets, among others. Based on the Needs and Population Monitoring (NPM) data implemented through the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), over 340 000 persons have been displaced across the country in the last quarter of 2016 due to deteriorated security conditions. Most displacements (52% of cases) occurred in December 2016 with the majority of newly displaced people originating from three governorates, including (58%), Deir-ez- Zor (13%) and (9%). The newly displaced people are most vulnerable as they often lack access to shelter, food and other basic services such as health, water, sanitation, hygiene and education. Market prices of core food items (wheat flour, bread, sugar, lentils) and diesel continued to rise in the last quarter of 2016 undermining households purchasing power and diminishing their ability to purchase food. In December 2016, national average prices of all the above-mentioned items were considerably higher than a year ago. Particularly significant quarterly increases were recorded in governorate where prices of most food items have more than doubled, while the price of diesel has soared by over 600 percent. Reportedly, food prices have gone down following the air drops of aid that were carried out by the United Nations (UN) in city last month. Over the past year, relative to the United States Dollar (USD), the Syrian Pound (SYP) has depreciated by 23 percent. Between October and December 2016, the Whole of Syria (WoS) Food Security Sector (FSS) partners provided monthly food basket assistance (in-kind, cash and voucher) on average to 5.8 million people each month. Additionally, bread/flour was provided on average to over 1.7 million people monthly, while 138 796 people were assisted with emergency food rations. In the same period, humanitarian agencies also distributed wheat seeds before the start of the growing season of agricultural crops in,,,, Dar a,, Al- Hasakeh and governorates. Winter wheat and barley crops, to be harvested May 2017, were planted between October and December 2016. The Agricultural Stress Index (ASI) shows signs of healthy crop growth in northwest Syria, southern governorates as well as the coastal areas. Nevertheless, prospects for 2017 cereal production in Syria are bleak due to ongoing conflict and damaged agricultural infrastructure and value-chains (machinery, inputs, water, storage). Currently, agriculture represents a major sector of the country s economy, contributing about 60 percent of the gross-domestic products (GDP) as different economic sectors have drastically contracted since the start of the crisis. Based on information from the WoS Nutrition Cluster (NC), out of 493 345 children aged five and under screened in the health facilities across Syria in October-December 2016, 14 106 were found to suffer from acute malnutrition, of which 3 203 were in the severe form. Severely malnourished children are at nine times more risk of death compared to well-nourished children. Hot spot areas: Areas in, and governorates with high severity of food insecurity and a total estimated population in need of 962 000 (Humanitarian Needs Overview, 2017) can be considered hot spot areas for this reporting period in terms of deteriorating food security conditions. These people could not be reached by humanitarian actors throughout the year due to inaccessibility and insecurity within the areas. has been affected with the steep increase in food and fuel prices due to escalation of the conflict and restricted access to markets. Most attacks and displacement occurred in the governorate. A higher proportion of children affected by acute malnutrition were found among internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Eastern compared with the national prevalence (3%). Eighty percent of the newly displaced people originated from these three governorates during this quarter.

Security Situation The intensity of conflict remained high during the last quarter of 2016. Over 1 400 air strikes were reported across all governorates except for, Sweida and Tartous, i.e. four airstrikes Security incidents Idlib Deir Ez-Zor h Rif-Dimashq Daraa Al-Hasakah Latakia As-Suwayda Tartus per day at average (Figure 1). There were several reports of farms/farmland targeted by airstrikes or shelling 1. Most air strikes occurred in the Governorate in October, while additional air strikes were observed in and in November and in Governorate in December. Overall, was by far the most affected governorate in this period with over 1 000 recorded incidents. The largest concentration of security incidents could also be observed in the urban centres that are contested between the armed groups, such as, and Deir-ez- Zor (Figure 1). The offensive by the armed forces of the Government of Syria and allied groups was seen as a turning point in the conflict. By December, only five percent of the urban area remained under opposition control 2. The high intensity of conflict in October was followed by a relatively calmer November, while the conflict intensified again in December (Figure 2). 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 Over 3,200 Security incidents Air Strike Attack/Direct/Clashes Battle Area Other Figure 1: Security Incidents in Syria and Concentration of security incidents by governorates (October-December 2016), Source: immap, Iraq Country Office Trend in Security Incidents 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 October - December 2016 October November December Figure 2: Trend in Security Incidents in Syria (October-December 2016), Source: immap Iraq Country Office October - December 201 1 PAX/TSI. 2016. Siege Watch Fourth Quarterly Report (available at Siege Watch). Accessed 6 March 2017. 2 UN News Center. 2016. It is past time for you to act to end carnage in, UN chief tells emergency Security Council session, 16 December 2016 (available at UN News Center). 3

Population Movement Since the start of the crisis, over six million people have been displaced internally in Syria 3. According to the OCHA NPM data more than 340 000 persons were forced to leave their homes during the last quarter of 2016 in all governorates (Figure 3). At times thousands of individuals per day were registered as IDPs. The siege of was especially devastating, forcing many people to leave their city. About a quarter (23%) of these IDPs arrived to formal or informal collective shel- IDP Movements Dar'a Tartous IDP Arrived Tartous 7,557 6,403 6,087 5,228 4,641 3,568 2,785 1,511 277 October November December 16,973 11,089 8,703 Over Dara 340,000 Displaced persons Across the country Oct-Dec 2016 72,483 Map 2: IDP arrivals October-December 2016 Of the cases occurred in Dec 2016 %52 Figure 3: IDP Movements (October-December 2016), Source: NPM, OCHA (npm-syria.org) 197,138 IDPs Arrived 20,001-105,421 10,001-20,000 5,001-10,000 2,501-5,000 1,001-2,500 0-1,000 October - December 2016 ters and camps, while others settled with host households, abandoned buildings, rented place, and in rare cases, own houses. Some of the IDPs were even displaced several times. The map below shows the districts where most of the IDPs arrived in the last quarter of 2016. Urban centres, especially, as well as areas close to the border with Turkey have received large numbers of displaced people (Map 2). Agriculture Prior to conflict, the agriculture sector contributed 18 percent to the country s gross domestic product (GDP) and employed 17 percent of its labour force in production. Since the start of the crisis, as different economic sectors drastically contracted the share of agriculture in the country, the GDP reached 60 percent (CFSAM, 2016). The primary agricultural products are wheat, barley, cotton, olives, lentils, chickpeas, sugar beets, beef, mutton, eggs, poultry, and milk. Crops According to the latest Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission (CFSAM) report, both planting (2015/16 cropping season) and harvesting of wheat and barley in 2016 were significantly lower compared to a pre-crisis level as well as the previous year 4 The reduction in yields resulted in an estimated shortfall of about 838 000 tonnes in the country s national wheat requirement of 3 854 million tonnes, taking into account commercial imports 5. Between October and December 2016, farmers were involved in land preparation and sowing of wheat, barley and winter vegetables. Moderate but timely precipitation was received across the country during this period. The agricultural stress index (ASI) that combines vegetation condition and temperature variables indicates signs of healthy crop growth in northwest Syria, southern governorates as well as the coastal areas (Map 3). 3 The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, 2016. 2017 Humanitarian Needs Overview: Syrian Arab Republic (available at HNO 2017) 4 FAO/WFP. 2016. CFSAM Mission to the Syrian Arab Republic. Special Report (available at FAO/WFP Special Report) 5 FAO. 2016. GIEWS - Global Information and Early Warning System. Country Analysis (available at FAO-GIEWS) 4

Tartous Dara In the reporting period, humanitarian agencies supported vulnerable households with emergency food aid to meet the immediate food needs and provided agricultural support to ensure the households produce their own food. A total of 87 452 households were supported with agricultural inputs, including seeds, pesticides and equipment. Out of this, wheat seeds were distributed to approximately 40 000 households (200-250kg per household) in,,,, Dar a,, and governorates 6 (Figure 4). The majority of wheat seed recipients were in Rainfall Zones Wheat Seed Distribution (Ton) Dar'a 2,313 Source: FAO - GIEWS 300 652 1,088 1,034 995 21 st - 31 th Dec 2016 1,240 1,463 Agricutural Stress Index (ASI) <10 10-25 25-40 40-55 55-70 70-85 >=85 Off season Map 3: Syria Agriculture Stress Index (December 2016) Almost 40,000 Households were supported with 9,000 Wheat Seed 80 Figure 4: Humanitarian Wheat Seed Distribution (October- December 2016) Average Annual Rainfall Tartous Zone I Zone II Zone III Zone IV 400-650 mm Covers 2.7 million hectares 300-400 mm. Covers 2.5 million hectares 200-300 mm. Covers 1.3 million hectares 100-200 mm. Covers 1.8 million hectares 1, 2 and 3, which are areas suitable for wheat production (Map 4). From about 9 000 tons of wheat seeds distributed, 80 000-100 000 tons of wheat grain harvest is expected to be collected under rainfed production. Livestock The livestock sector has been seriously affected by the conflict with significant reductions in herd and flock numbers. Poultry production, the main and most affordable source of protein of animal origin, has declined from the pre-conflict levels by 60 percent due to unavailability of poultry feed at affordable costs. Livestock herds have decreased by over 30 percent for cattle and over 40 percent for sheep and goats 7. Damage to infrastructure of the agro-processing industry, destruction of natural pastures and high levels of insecurity has also affected availability and accessibility of livestock feed. The precarious situation in the livestock sector has been further compounded by dry spells experienced in 2016, which affected pasture availability and resulted in the increase of feed prices. The impact was especially felt in locations with high concentration of IDPs who had fled with their herds. During the last quarter of 2016, there were few reported disease incidences affecting livestock. In confirmed cases of Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) virus were reported, which was an indication of the presence of the virus in some of the goat and sheep flocks in the governorate (FSS, Livestock Technical Working Group, South Turkey). WoS FSS partners supported only 1 500 households through animal vaccination programs and about 3 700 households with livestock asset restoration activities, such as animal feed and live animal distribution. Zone V >100 mm. Covers 8.3 million hectares Dara Map 4: Rainfall Zones 6 FAO/WFP Syria Food Security Sector Monthly Reporting (Unpublished Internal Document) 7 FAO/WFP. 2016. CFSAM Mission to the Syrian Arab Republic. Special Report (available at Special Report. Accessed 6 March 2017. 5

6 Market Prices The conflict has affected market dynamics and infrastructures in many ways. Supply lines were disrupted and trade routes have either been cut off or altered; previous GoS support on strategic market chains were disrupted; market infrastructures were damaged or destroyed; transportation services were affected by increasing diesel prices and altered supply routes (checkpoint taxes); devaluation of the Syrian pound against the US dollar and inflation impacted prices and trading patterns between traders and suppliers. The market prices for diesel as well as core food items such as wheat flour, bread, sugar, rice and lentils were collected from various market monitoring systems throughout Syria. National average prices of the above-mentioned items mostly show increases in the last quarter of 2016 as well as over the past year both in SYP and USD terms (Figure 5). Between October and December 2016, diesel prices in SYP rose more significantly (31%) compared to the prices of most food items (10-19% increase). In contrast, bread prices fell sharply in the same period (34%); similar trends were observed in most parts of the country. The greatest price gains were recorded in (besieged area), especially for diesel, which surged over 600 percent in the reference period. In December 2016, the highest prices (2-3 times above the national average) for the above-mentioned items were also found in. Price Trends 200% 180% 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% SYP USD SYP USD SYP USD SYP USD SYP USD SYP USD Diesel Lentils Rice Sugar Wheat Bread Figure 5. Syria Price Trends Annual Change Oct-Dec Change Annual comparison shows a significant increase (60-90%) in food prices in SYP terms, particularly for sugar (90%). The trend is similar in USD terms, although the rate of increase was somewhat lower (25-46%). The price of diesel has also increased year by year both in SYP although marginally in USD terms (33% and 3% respectively). The higher rates of price increase in SYP versus USD could partly be attributed to a significant (23%) depreciation in the value of SYP against the USD over the past year and increased dependence on imports. The trend analysis also covered prices in the governorate centres of,, and governorates where market data was consistently available during the reporting period. These towns have mostly seen increases in food and diesel prices both quarterly and annually. In December 2016, the highest prices for all items were observed in (Figure 6). In general, market prices showed greater volatility in,,, Ar- Raqqa and compared to other areas within Syria, particularly for diesel and bread. December 2016 Prices (SYP) Lentils Rice Sugar Diesel Wheat Bread Raqqa 644 630 589 521 429 349 485 547 509 114 180 153 527 439 445 358 217 192 432 376 426 319 164 204 Figure 6: December 2016 Prices in,, and for food basket items and fuel Price dynamics inside Syria do not reflect price trends on international markets that show an overall downward trend. For example, the FAO Sugar Price Index declined by 16.7 percent from October to December 2016. The index is 26 percent higher than the same month last year. The sharp fall in international sugar prices in the last quarter of 2016 was mainly driven by rising exports from Brazil, the largest sugar producer/exporter 8. In December 2016, the International Grain Council (IGC) wheat sub-index was down by two and seven percent since October 2016 and December 2015 respectively. Similarly, rice sub-index reduced in the same periods of comparison by one and four percent respectively 9. 8 FAO. 2017. FAO Food Price Index [Website] (available World Food Situation). Accessed 6 March 2017. 9 IGC, 2017, Grain Market Report (available at Grain Market Report). Accessed 6 March 2017.

Nutrition and Health The most recent SMART write out nutrition surveys conducted in Syria (11 out of 14 governorates) in 2015/16, indicated acceptable levels of acute malnutrition (GAM of 3%) and chronic malnutrition (12.7%) among children under-five based on the World Health Organization (WHO) classification (<5% and <20% respectively). However, the surveys revealed poor levels of Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) of 7.8% among women in child-bearing age (CBA), which potentially can trigger a vicious cycle of intergeneration transmission of undernutrition in the context of dominant aggravating factors, such as sub-optimum infant and young child feeding (IYCF) practices, food insecurity, population displacement, limited access to quality water and poor hygiene practices and the high prevalence of diarrhoea and other childhood diseases. In October-December 2016, 493 345 children under five years of age were screened in health facilities across Syria, out of which 14 106 (3%) Acute diarrhoea cases among children under-five October November December 1,967 1,873 2,076 1,863 1,636 1,876 1,568 1,538 1,588 1,617 1,615 1,238 1,427 1,875 1,570 1,527 1,594 1,474 1,489 1,394 1,329 1,440 1,448 1,385 1,518 1,522 1,419 1,652 1,609 1,448 1,470 1,248 1,215 1,310 1,217 1,062 953 893 780 1,137 1,017 1,345 1,272 1,379 1,571 1,147 1,194 1,008 1,002 907 798 813 Dar'a 508 539 602 652 658 636 852 889 993 1,003 876 776 830 227 236 261 273 205 188 192 206 227 222 197 216 245 182 177 312 273 299 363 386 426 444 306 198 202 188 157 196 201 156 184 173 145 186 210 188 105 110 85 140 132 137 203 182 160 202 206 177 177 170 122 63 69 137 122 105 82 84 149 165 220 199 181 113 170 Figure 7: Trends in acute 16 diarrhoea 13 cases 20among 21 children under-five 8 5by Governorates 29 16 (October-December 31 17 2016) 11 6 9 es. According to Early Warning Alert and Response Network (EWARN) monitoring information that covers 11 governorates inside Syria, about one third (32-37%) of the monitored drinking water sources (1 087 sources in the first two weeks of January) have not been functional in 10 governorates of Syria in the past quarter of 2016 10. Epidemiological monitoring data 11 indicates acute diarrhoea (AD) to be the second highest reported illness (next to influenza like illnesses) among children under age five over the past quarter (22-35% out of the total reported diseases). The highest numbers of AD cases have been registered in,, Dar a, and governorates (Figure 7). Multi antigen vaccination campaign (AIRI3) was implemented among children under age five with support from WHO and UNICEF in three rounds in WoS in 2016, targeting hard-to-reach areas. The third round of the campaign was carried out in, north of, north of and Afrin in in November-December 2016. were found to suffer from acute malnutrition. Of the 14 106, three thousand two hundred three (3 203) children were in the severe form and at nine times more risk of death compared to well-nourished children. Screening data (November 2016-January 2017) among IDPs in Eastern, on the other hand, indicated higher proportion of children affected by the global acute malnutrition compared with the national prevalence of three percent. Among the 16 929 children under age five screened by mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC), 886 were detected with acute malnutrition (5.2%), the majority of whom were moderate acute malnutrition (MAM) cas- 10 WASH Biweekly Bulletin - Syria Early Warning Alert and Response Network (Available at WASH Reports). Accessed on January 20, 2017 11 Epidemiological Weekly Bulletin - Syria Early Warning Alert and Response Network (EWARN) (Available at EPI Reports). Accessed on January 23, 2017 7