1 Impacts and Vulnerabilities to Climate Variability, Change and Extremes Ms. Suruchi Bhadwal
2 IPCC Findings: 20th century Increase in global mean temperature by over 0.7 0 C Decrease in snow cover and ice extent 10 % reduction in snow cover since late 1960s 10-15 % reduction in spring/ summer ice content since 1950s 0.1 0.2 m rise in global sea level 1990s the warmest decade of the millennium
20 th century increases 3
4 IPCC 21st century projections Global mean temperatures and sea level projected to rise under all IPCC scenarios Mean surface temperature to increase Mean sea level to continue to rise Decrease in Northern Hemisphere snow cover and seaice extent Increase in summer flows of river systems followed by reductions as glacier disappears
5 Changes in global temperatures Changes in precipitation patterns, evapotranspiration rates, humidity levels and increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme events
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10 Climate change introduces huge unknowns
Human-induced climate change has the potential to trigger large-scale changes in Earth systems that could have severe consequences at regional or global scales. The probabilities of triggering such events are poorly understood but should not be ignored, given the severity of their consequences. Source: IPCC, Climate Change 2001: Synthesis 11 Report
Concern: Sustainable Development Implications 12
Direct observations of recent climate change Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level. Source: IPCC 13
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15 Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time Warmest 12 years: 1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000 Period Rate 50 0.128 0.026 100 0.074 0.018 Years /decade
Projections of future changes in climate Very likely that hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy precipitation events will continue to become more frequent Likely that future tropical cyclones will become more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation less confidence in decrease of total number Extra-tropical storm tracks projected to move poleward with consequent changes in wind, precipitation, and temperature patterns Source: IPCC 16
Land precipitation is changing significantly over broad areas Increases Decreases Source: IPCC TAR and AR4 17
More heavy precipitation and more droughts. 18
Time scales 19
Source: GRID Arenda 20 Impacts
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Impact of Climate Change Impacts of Climate Change The impacts of climate change may further exacerbate the situation. Some of the observations over the 20th century include (IPCC, 2007); Increase in temperatures, Decrease in snow and ice cover (Glacial melting), Rise in global average sea level rise (SLR), Rise in Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs), Increase in frequency and intensity of extreme events Changes in precipitation/rainfall, its frequency and intensity. Directly affecting the runoff rates and thus the surface and groundwater supply (availability & quality) to various sectors
Climate Modelling- Rainfall Projections using PRECIS (2071 2099) 23 Extreme - scenario Moderate-scenario
24 Temperature change using PRECIS (2071 2099) Extreme-scenario Moderate-scenario
Impacts, vulnerability and All sectors Agriculture crop growth models Water storm surge, hydrological models Forests/ biodiversity biome model/ RS and GIS Coastal regions RS and GIS and Health statistical analysis National and regional assessments Climate Risk Screening of Infrastructure projects Investment and financial needs adaptation 25
Some systems and sectors are very vulnerable 26 Some ecosystems: Coral reefs; sea-ice regions Tundra, boreal forests, mountain and Mediterranean regions Low-lying coasts, mangroves & salt marshes Water resources in mid-latitudes & dry Tropics Low-latitude agriculture Human health where adaptive capacity is low
Some regions will be more affected than others 27 The Arctic Sub-Saharan Africa Small islands Asian megadeltas
28 Impacts of Climate Change Climate change would affect many sectors In future likely to affect agriculture, water resource scarcity with enhanced climate variability and more rapid melting of glaciers Also, likely to affect forest expansion and migration, exacerbate threats to biodiversity Multiple stresses will compound further due to climate change
Impact on Agriculture and food security contd 29 Direct Impacts Due to changes in temperatures, CO 2 fertilization effect Indirect Impacts Water Scarcity, Extremes, Pests and Diseases Yields and Production to be affected Substantial decreases in cereal production especially in case of the tropics
30 Impact on Agriculture and food security Crop simulation modeling studies based on future climate change scenarios indicate substantial losses are likely in rain-fed wheat in South and Southeast Asia Climate Change can affect not only crop production per unit area but also the area of production. Most of the arable land suitable for cultivation in Asia is already in use Food insecurity and loss of livelihood to be further exacerbated by loss of cultivated land and nursery areas for fisheries by inundation and coastal erosion in low-lying areas of tropical Asia
Impacts of climate change in 2020 scenario on various crops Rice Wheat Mustard Irrigated rice, wheat and mustard productions may be reduced by 6%, 4% and 4%, respectively. Adaptation strategies can compensate the reductions. Source: H Pathak, 2013 31
Impact on hydrology and water resources contd 32 Climate change related melting of glaciers could seriously affect half billion people in the Himalaya- Hindu-Kush region Unfavorable consequences for downstream agriculture in most countries of South Asia relying on glacier melt for water for irrigation India, China and Bangladesh are especially susceptible to increasing salinity of groundwater and surface water resources especially along the coast, due to increase in sea level as a direct impact of global warming
33 Impact on hydrology and water resources Water availability and its quality to be affected Intense rain occurring over fewer days, Implies increased frequency of floods during the monsoon, will also result in loss of the rain water as direct runoff resulting in reduced groundwater recharging potential.
34 Impact on Coastal and low lying areas Projected sea level rise would affect millions of people living in the low lying areas of South, Southeast and East Asia such as in Vietnam, Bangladesh, India and China Even under the most conservative scenario, sea level will be about 40 cm higher than today by the end of 21st century and projected to increase the annual number of people flooded in coastal population from 13 million to 94 million Expected that almost 60% of the increase will be in South Asia (along coasts from Pakistan, through India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh to Burma)
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STORM SURGE SIMULATION: WETTING AND DRYING MECHANISM 36 TERI (2012)
PLAUSIBLE SLR INCREASE + STORM SURGE SCENARIO over WB 37 TERI (2012)
Impact on natural ecosystems and biodiversity 38 Up to 50% of Asia s total biodiversity is at risk due to climate change The natural grassland coverage and the grass yield in Asia, in general, are projected to decline with rise in temperature and higher evaporation More frequent and prolonged droughts as a consequence of climate change and other anthropogenic factors together will result in the increasing trends of desertification in Asia
Current knowledge about future impacts contd.. 39 Ecosystems Over the course of this century net carbon uptake by terrestrial ecosystems is likely to peak before mid-century and then weaken or even reverse, thus amplifying climate change. Approximately 20-30% of plant and animal species assessed so far are likely to be at increased risk of extinction if increases in global average temperature exceed 1.5-2.5 o C. Coastal systems and low-lying areas Many millions more people are projected to be flooded every year due to sea-level rise by the 2080s. Those densely-populated and low-lying areas where adaptive capacity is relatively low, and which already face other challenges such as tropical storms or local coastal subsidence, are especially at risk. The numbers affected will be largest in the mega-deltas of Asia and Africa while small islands are especially vulnerable.
40 Climate Change: Additional stressor on human health and well-being Climate change exacerbates existing stresses (environmental, social, economic) Direct impacts on health Mortality and morbidity associated with extreme thermal and precipitation events Damage to infrastructure Indirect impacts on human health Loss of livelihoods and consequent socio-economic implications Resource conflicts (food and water insecurity) Displacement, migration, environmental refugees due to climatic extremes, SLR and reduced freshwater availability Changes in spatial and temporal virulence patterns of disease agents
41 Impact on human health Climate change poses substantial risks to human health Global burden (mortality and morbidity) of climatechange- attributable diarrhoea and malnutrition are already the largest in South and Southeast Asian countries including Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Myanmar and Nepal in 2000 The relative risks for these conditions for 2030 is expected to be also the largest An empirical model projected that population at risk of dengue fever (the estimated risk of dengue transmission is greater than 50%) will be larger in India and China Excess mortality due to heat stress is also projected to be very high
Impact of heat stress: Uttar Pradesh (A1B) (by C Sharma, NPL) NATCOM- SNC 42 Heat wave events in different districts of UP during 1961-90, 2021-50 and 2070-98 Dhiman, 2013
43 Defining Vulnerability Defining Vulnerability no one universally accepted definition of vulnerability IPCC (2001) definition: Vulnerability is a combination of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity
Distinguishing across Sensitivity- Degree to which a system is sensitive to change in climatic conditions Exposure - degree of climate stress upon a particular unit of analysis; it may be represented as either long-term change in climate conditions or climate variability. Adaptive Capacity- ability of a system to adjust to actual or expected climate stresses, or to cope with consequences Resilience- ability of a system to maintain its critical processes under conditions of stress; attempt to self-organize and build the capacity to learn and adjust to these conditions (Carpenter and Brock 2008) 44
Vulnerability of Indian Agriculture to Climate Change: A District Level Assessment in 2050 NICRA (2013) 45
Current Vulnerability of Agriculture in the IGP 46 H Pathak, 2013
47 Vulnerability Index Maps: 2030 TERI (2012)
KHEDA KHEDA HARDWAR 4 MANDLA CHENAI HALDWANI SHAHJAHANPUR ALAHABAD 32 4 11 CARNICOBAR ROURKELA SONAPUR HARDWAR CHENAI MANDLA CARNICOBAR ROURKELA HALDWANI SHAHJAHANPUR ALAHABAD SONAPUR Mortality due to Heat wave Heat waves occur in the month of March to June. Maximum deaths (1658) occurred in the year 1998. Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh suffer the most. Dhiman, 2013 (Akhtar R 2007. Global Environ. Research 11(1): 51-57) Heat stress sector should define the critical climatic conditions, nutritional status and risk factors for mortality so that health advisory may be possible. 48
In conclusion 49 There is a need to frame responses to the likely risks of climate change and adapt effectively Adaptation will be able to reduce the risks to a certain extent but it may not be possible to address all losses While there are programmes that are already in place with the potential for adaptation that require scaling up to address the incremental risk, in other cases, the need for introduction of new programmes and schemes will be felt and required to be implemented
Thank you http://www.teriin.org http://www.teriin.org/coping Contact details: Ms. Suruchi Bhadwal suruchib@teri.res.in