The rapid rise of agricultural mechanization in Myanmar Ben Belton¹, Mateusz Filipski², Myat Thida Win¹, Xiaobo Zhang² (¹Michigan State University, ²IFPRI) Food Security Policy Project South-South Knowledge Sharing on Agricultural Mechanization IFPRI, CIMMYT, Ethiopian Agricultural Mechanization Forum Addis Ababa, Ethiopia November 1, 2017
Myanmar recent historical context Recently emerging from 50 years isolation - political & economic reforms from 2010 Least developed economy in SE Asia Agricultural GDP = 38%; Population 70% rural Conventional view of Myanmar s rural economy is gloomy one of stagnation: The level of agricultural mechanization in Myanmar is still low not a surprise given the low wages in rural areas, the excess agricultural labor, and the still- lacking infrastructure and regulatory environment for machinery service providers Farmers in general do not have the access to long-term capital, preventing investments in agricultural machinery (World Bank, 2016) BUT, situation changing very quickly
Data sources Two recent household surveys: Delta: Myanmar Aquaculture-Agriculture Survey 2016, 4 townships, 1100 HH Rural Economy and Agriculture Dry Zone Survey 2017, 4 townships, 1600 HH Both aim at generating benchmark of current status of rural economy (farm & non-farm) and recent changes within it, including mechanization Survey of agricultural machinery supplier businesses from main cluster in Yangon (2016) Surveys of suppliers and rental service providers in Dry Zone (ongoing)
Dry Zone Delta
DELTA
Machines displacing draft animals; Mechanized harvesting
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DRY ZONE
Combined use of machines and draft animals Neither 0% Both cattle and machine 76% Cattle only 22% Machine only 2% Share of farmers using draft animals and machinery for land preparation
Increasing ownership of machines Cumulative number of machines 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 1997 1998 1999 Feed cutter Thresher 4WT 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Water pump 2WT 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Cumulative purchases of selected machinery (1997-2017)
Increasing value of machines owned 60.0 Million USD 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 Feed cutter Thresher 4WT Water pump 2WT 10.0-1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Real annual value of agricultural machinery purchases at 2016 prices, by year and machine type (1997-2017)
Rental services enabling access to machines 60% 50% 52 Own Rent Share of farm HHs 40% 30% 20% 10% 27 10 39 0% 10 years ago 5 years ago Today 10 years ago 5 years ago Today 10 years ago 5 years ago Today 10 years ago 5 years ago Today 2WT 4WT Combine Harvester Thresher Share of farmers using machinery, by machine type, year and ownership status (2017-2007)
Rental services scale-neutral technology 90% 80% T1 T2 T3 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Any machine 2WT 4WT Combine Thresher Share of HH using machinery by landholding tercile and type of machine
Drivers: rural-urban migration 100 90 Domestic International 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Cumulative share of all long-term migrants by year first migrated (%), 1995-2016
Migration large rural wage increases Real daily wages (MMK) 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 +20% +15% 2012 2014 2016 Change in real daily wages for male casual workers (2012-2016)
3500 3000 Price of machines falling Water Pump 2WT USD 2500 2000 1500 1000 500-7.1%/year -5.8%/year 0 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Trend in real price of small machines (2007-2017)
Simultaneous improvement in access to formal financial services Share of sales (%) 48 17 27 5 68 22 2 77 Bank Dealer Customer Hire purchase agreements with commercial banks began in 2013 Agricultural land titles can be used as collateral since 2012 35 2WT 4WT Combine Harvester Reduced capital constraints for machine suppliers, cost of credit to buyers Source of finance for machinery purchases (2016)
Geographical spread of machine supply businesses 2010 2013 2016
Conclusions Demand side drivers: Migration; rising wages rates, labor shortages Supply side drivers 1: Hire purchase finance from banks; transferrable land use rights (collateral) Supply side drivers 2: Falling cost of machines; no restrictions or tariffs on imports Supply side drivers 3: Dynamic informal private rental markets (very limited reach of government rental services) Result 1: Extremely rapid mechanization in main agricultural zones, following crop specific patterns (power tillers and combines in main paddy growing areas, 4 wheel tractors drylands) Result 2: Machine access scale neutral at point of use; saves time/reduces risk; helps farms remain viable in face of rising production costs