Myanmar s Rural Transformation: Emerging evidence of rapid structural change Ben Belton (Michigan State University) Food Security Policy Project University of Sydney, Sydney Southeast Asia Centre 15 February, 2017
Outline Historical context Data Migration and wages Agricultural mechanization Credit Rural Non-Farm Economy Farm productivity Conclusions
Myanmar (recent) historical context Among worst development indicators in SEA - High rates of malnutrition, poverty, low agricultural productivity Agricultural GDP = 38%; Population 70% rural World Bank Myanmar farm production economics survey (conducted 2013/14, published 2016): The level of agricultural mechanization in Myanmar is still low not a surprise given the low wages in rural areas, the excess agricultural labor, and the still-lacking infrastructure and regulatory environment for machinery service providers. Farmers in general do not have the access to longterm capital, preventing investments in agricultural machinery BUT, by mid-2016 we find evidence of very rapid change taking place in Ayeyarwady and Yangon regions, close to Yangon
Data Myanmar Aquaculture-Agriculture Survey, 2016 Aims Baseline of information on fish and crop farming sectors Quantify and compare spillovers & trade-offs between these Explore mechanization, credit, rural non-farm economy Methodology Purposively selected 2 clusters of village tracts for comparison, based on concentration of fish ponds and prevailing crop farming systems Randomly selected communities and households to represent entire population of both clusters (including non-farm households) Total sample = 1102 HHs in 40 village tracts Community survey (73 villages) Survey of agricultural machinery supply businesses in Yangon
Survey locations
68% of villages surveyed cannot be accessed by car during monsoon season
Average distance to nearest paved road = 3.1 miles 88% of villages have no access to public electricity
Rapidly accelerating rural-urban migration post-2010 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Urban Rural 16% of HH have migrants Average migrant age 21 55:45 male/female split 8% international 70% employed in manufacturing Rural-rural migration from remoter areas for fulltime agricultural work 0 1995 1997 1999 2001 2005 2008 2010 2012 2014 Cumulative share of current migrants by year migrated (%)
Contribution of remittances to off-farm income is relatively small 80% of HH with migrants receive remittances Average remittance = $50/month Contributions to total off-farm income, by source of income
Real wage increases Real daily wages (MMK) 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 +8% +32% Main impact of migration is on rural labour supply and wage rates 500 0 2011 2013 2016 Average real daily wage for male agricultural labour (2011-2016)
Labour shortages & rising wages driving mechanization Real purchase value (Million MMK) 20000 Combine 4WT 18000 Surface-water Pump 2WT 16000 Thresher 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Real annual value of agricultural machinery purchases, by year and machine type (2000-2015)
Scale-neutral technology % of farm households using 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 78 83 75 <5 acres >5 & <10 acres >10 acres 60 61 50 13 8 7 0 2WT (Land Preparation) 4WT (Land Preparation) Combine (Harvesting)
Adoption supported by rental services Machine Use for Land Preparation Machine Use for Harvesting % of households using machinery 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Own Rented in Other 2006 2011 2016 Own Rented in Other 2006 2011 2016
Mechanization supported by more affordable machines 3000 2WT Surface Water Pump Real purchase price ('000 MMK) 2500 2000 1500 1000 500-5.1%/yr -5.8%/yr 0 Real purchase price of two-wheel tractors & water pumps, 2006-2016
Improving access to formal financial services Share of sales (%) 48 17 35 27 5 68 22 2 77 2WT 4WT Combine Harvester Bank Dealer Customer Hire purchase agreements with commercial banks began in 2013 Agricultural land titles can be used as collateral since 2012 Reduced capital constraints for machine suppliers, cost of credit to buyers Source of finance for machinery purchases (2016)
Geographical spread of machine supply businesses 2010 2013 2016
Sources of credit diversifying % of villages with access 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2011 2016 Access to credit improving due to MFIs and cooperatives Average rates of interest paid on informal loans fell from 72% in 2011 to 60% in 2016 Share of villages with credit access by source (2011-2016)
Rapid growth of non-farm enterprise Mean businesses/village 20 15 10 5 0 +229% Motor transport +52% Shops 2011 2016 +46% Personal services +36% Food services Crafts - 45% - 56% Agricultural trade Change in average number of businesses per village, 2011-2016 From 2011-2016, motor vehicles overtook boats as main mode of transport: average journey times to fell 20-30%. Increasing mobility: Of workers in fulltime employment, 44% travel beyond local area but remain resident. Village stores have attained almost total ubiquity (96% of villages).
Household participation in farm and off-farm employment by expenditure quintile Off-farm employment plays a major role in livelihoods for households in all income and landholding groups
Agriculture still the major source of primary employment Agriculture directly provides >70% of primary employment, plus indirect employment in value chains Share of individual primary employment, by type
Incipient agricultural intensification 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 % of HH planting improved rice variety 30 20 18 19 16 Monsoon Dry season 2006 2011 2016 37 80 70 60 50 40 Paddy yield (baskets/acre) 74 70 66 46 48 47 30 20 10 0 Monsoon Dry season 2006 2011 2016
Agricultural productivity remains low Gross margin/acre (USD) 800 600 400 200 0-200 -400 Gross Margin/acre (USD) 350 250 150 50-50 -150-250 -350 1 7 13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55 61 67 73 79 85 91 97 103 109 115 121 127 133 139 145 151 157 163 169 175 181 187 193 199 205 211 217 223 229 235 241 Mung Bean Monsoon Paddy Median = $200/acre Median = $100/acre 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 Median agricultural land = 5.5 acres; Typical annual agricultural income = $1650/HH, or $330/capita
Conclusions Rapid rural transformation taking place close to Yangon, driven by migration Migration driven by urban growth & industrialization post 2012 Leading to: Labor shortages, rising wages Mechanization of agriculture, growth of RNFE (disposable income) Growth of RNFE, supported by: Greater mobility (transport services), improving access to and terms of credit; Leading to deeper market integration (labour, inputs, outputs) Mechanization supported by: Expansion of formal finance, falling machine costs, thriving rental markets, scale neutrality; Helps farming remain viable in face of rising costs BUT, more research on social implications of this process required: Will this transformation reduce inequality or accelerate differentiation? Can migration and non-farm growth keep pace with mechanization? Can agriculture remain attractive over the long run, and if so, in what forms?