OVERVIEW OF THE ENERGY SECTOR IN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN VICTORIO OXILIA DÁVALOS EXECUTIVE SECRETARY 12 TH WIND WORLD ENERGY CONFERENCE 4th, JUNE, 2013 La Habana, Cuba
Overview of hydrocarbon sector in Latin America and the Caribbean Mix of energy total supply, LA&C vs. the World Hydroenergy 9% Nuclear 1% Coal and coke 4% Biomass 14% LA&C (5,909 Mboe) Other renewables 3% Natural gas 28% Crude oil and derivatives 41% Hydroenergy 2% Biomass 10% Nuclear 6% World (91,564 Mboe) Other renewables 1% Coal and coke 27% Natural gas 22% Crude oil and derivatives 32% Source: SIEE-OLADE, 2013, data of year 2011
HYDROCARBONS
Overview of energy sector in Latin America and the Caribbean Global proven reserves (1P) of hydrocarbons Middle East 48% Crude oil (1,651,547 Mbbl) North America 12% Latin America and the Caribbean 20% Africa 8% Asia & Australasia 3% Europe 1% Former Soviet Union 8% Middle East 38% Natural gas (208,470 Gm 3 ) North America 5% Latin America and the Caribbean 4% Africa 7% Asia & Australasia 8% Europe 2% Former Soviet Union 36% Source: SIEE-OLADE, 2013, data of year 2011
Overview of energy sector in Latin America and the Caribbean Proven reserves (1P) of hydrocarbons in LA&C Crude oil (335,709 Mbbl) Mexico 3% Brazil 4% Ecuador 2% Others 2% Venezuela 89% Argentina 4% Mexico 5% Peru 5% Trinidad & Tobago 5% Brazil 6% Natural gas (7,968 Gm 3 ) Colombia Bolivia 2% Others 1% 3% Venezuela 69% Source: SIEE-OLADE, 2013, data of year 2011
Overview of energy sector in Latin America and the Caribbean Global producction of hydrocarbons North America 14% Crude Oil (83.2 Mbbl/day) Africa 10% Latin America and the Caribbean 12% North America 24% Natural gas (9,151 Mcm/day) Africa 6% Latin America and the Caribbean 9% Middle East 33% Former Soviet Union 16% Asia & Australasia 10% Europe 5% Middle East 16% Former Soviet Union 23% Asia & Australasia 14% Europe 8% Source: SIEE-OLADE, 2013, data of year 2011
Reserves Reach (years) Production (Mbb/year) Overview of hydrocarbon sector in Latin America and the Caribbean Crude oil, production & reserves reach in LA&C Production & Reserves Reach - Oil 300 1,089 1,200 250 273 931 1,000 200 770 800 150 114 600 100 334 400 50 0 11 20 7 207 182 12 34 34 16 26 22 21 6 16 6 12 13 4 1.8 14 1.7 0.3 7 5 200 0 Production (Mbb/year) Reserves Reach (years) Source: SIEE-OLADE, 2013, data of year 2011
Reserves Reach (years) Production (Gm3/year) Panorama del sector Hidrocarburos en América Latina y el Caribe Natural gas, production & reserves reach in LA&C Production & Reserves Reach - Natural Gas 140 76 126 80 120 70 100 60 80 46 44 41 50 40 60 40 20 0 5 7 Mexico Argentina Venezuela Trinidad & Tobago 9 53 23 20 20 18 16 13 24 16 2 14 2 1 1 Brazil Peru Bolivia Colombia Chile Ecuador Cuba 30 20 10 0 Production (Gm3/year) Reserves Reach (years) Source: SIEE-OLADE, 2013, data of year 2011
Overview of hydrocarbon sector in Latin America and the Caribbean 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 Hydrocarbon net exporters in LA&C Crude oil and derivatives - Group 1 (kbbl/day) 300 250 200 150 100 Crude oil and derivatives - Group 2 (kbbl/day) 500 50 0 Venezuela Mexico Colombia 0 Ecuador Brazil Trinidad & Tobago Argentina Others Natural gas (Mcm/day) 60 50 40 30 20 10 Source: SIEE- OLADE, 2013, data of year 2011 0 Trinidad & Tobago Bolivia Colombia Peru
ELECTRICITY
Trinidad & Tobago Barbados Chile Venezuela Argentina Uruguay Brazil Suriname Mexico LA&C Panama Costa Rica Grenada Belice Jamaica Peru Paraguay Cuba Colombia Ecuador Dominican Rep. El Salvador Guyana Bolivia Honduras Guatemala Nicaragua Haiti Overview of energy sector in Latin America and the Caribbean The demand of electricity in the Region 7.00 Per capita electricity consumption (MWh/hab. Year) 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 Source: SIEE-OLADE, 2013, data of year 2011
Overview of energy sector in Latin America and the Caribbean Global electricity production Total global: 22,040 TWh Africa 3% Latin America and The Caribbean 7% Middle East 4% Former Soviet Union 7% North America 22% Europe 17% Asia & Australasia 40% Source: SIEE-OLADE, 2013, data of year 2011
MW Overview of energy sector in Latin America and the Caribbean Hydropower, potential and installed capacity 300,000 GROUP 1 250,000 260,093 200,000 150,000 100,000 32% 93,000 50,000 0 58,937 53,000 46,000 40,400 40,000 10% 6% 22% 32% 25% 1% Brazil Colombia Peru Mexico Venezuela Argentina Bolivia Potential Hydro installed capacity Source: SIEE-OLADE, 2013, data of year 2011
MW Overview of energy sector in Latin America and the Caribbean Hydropower, potential and installed capacity 30,000 GROUP 2 25,000 25,156 25,150 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 12,516 24% 7,000 6,633 70% 5,000 5,000 9% 25% 0% 18% 11% Chile Ecuador Paraguay Guyana Costa Rica Guatemala Honduras Potential Hydro installed capacity Source: SIEE-OLADE, 2013, data of year 2011
MW Overview of energy sector in Latin America and the Caribbean Hydropower, potential and installed capacity 3,500 3,000 3,282 GROUP 3 2,500 2,000 2,420 2,165 2,095 2,000 1,815 1,843 1,500 1,000 500 41% 8% 22% 25% 5% 85% 11% 0 Panama Suriname El Salvador Dominican Rep. Nicaragua Uruguay Other Potential Hydro installed Capacity Source: SIEE-OLADE, 2013, data of year 2011
Overview of energy sector in Latin America and the Caribbean Wind and Geothermal, potential and installed capacity Wind Potential (MW) Source: GWEC, data of year 2011 Installed capacity (MW) % Used Argentina 200,000 130 0.1% Brazil 142,000 1,509 1.1% Chile 40,000 205 0.5% Colombia 18,000 20 0.1% Costa Rica 800 129 16.1% Cuba 14,000 11 0.1% Ecuador 884 20 2.3% * Honduras 1,200 102 8.5% Mexico 71,000 1,215 1.7% * Peru 22,000 142 0.6% Dominican Rep. N.D 33 Uruguay 3,000 52 1.7% Venezuela 45,000 30 0.1% LA&C 557,884 3,256 0.6% * Data updated to 2012 Geothermal Potential (MW) Installed capacity (MW) % Used Argentina 2,010 0 0% Bolivia 2,490 0 0% Brasil 115 0 0% Chile 3,350 0 0% Colombia 2,210 0 0% Costa Rica 2,900 166 5.7% Ecuador 1,700 0 0% El Salvador 2,210 204 9.2% Grenada 1,110 0% Guatemala 3,320 49 1.5% Honduras 990 0% Jamaica 100 0% México 40,000 958 2.4% * Nicaragua 3,340 88 2.6% Panamá 450 0 0% Perú 2,990 0 0% Venezuela 910 0 0% LA&C 70,195 1,465 2.1% * Data updated to 2012 Source: GEA, data of year 2011
MW Overview of energy sector in Latin America and the Caribbean Installed capacity by technology 140,000 GROUP 1 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 Other Nuclear Geothermal Diesel Gas Steam Hydro - Brasil México Argentina Venezuela Chile Colombia Paraguay Source: SIEE-OLADE, 2013, data of year 2011
MW Overview of energy sector in Latin America and the Caribbean Installed capacity by technology 9,000 GROUP 2 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 - Other Nuclear Geothermal Diesel Gas Steam Hydro Source: SIEE-OLADE, 2013, data of year 2011
MW Overview of energy sector in Latin America and the Caribbean Installed capacity by technology 2,500 GROUP 3 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 Other Nuclear Geothermal Diesel Gas Steam Hydro - Trinidad y Tobago Honduras El Salvador Bolivia Nicaragua Jamaica Suriname Source: SIEE-OLADE, 2013, data of year 2011
Overview of energy sector in Latin America and the Caribbean Power generation structure by source 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% Primarily nonrenewable generation 50% 40% 30% 20% Primarily renewable generation 10% 0% Hydropower Geothermal Other renewables Nuclear and fossil Source: SIEE-OLADE, 2013, data of year 2011
BIOFUELS
Overview of hydrocarbon sector in Latin America and the Caribbean Global biomass potential
Overview of hydrocarbon sector in Latin America and the Caribbean Global production of biofuels Mainly global producer of ethanol approximately 80,000 millions of liters Mainly global producer of biodiesel approximately 20,000 millions of liters China 2% Other 10% United States 14% Other 36% Argentina 13% Brazil 33% United States 55% Germany 12% Colombia 3% Brazil 10% France 12% Source: CEPAL, 2011
SOME RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT PERSPECTIVES
Overview of energy sector in Latin America and the Caribbean Major expansion prospect of the wind energy in LA&C BRAZIL The Decennial energy expansion plan for 2020 foresees for this year, 11,500 MW of wind power capacity. (Source: MME/EP). MEXICO According to the SENER's Renewable Energy Prospective, the wind power until 2025 will Increase by 11,278 MW. (Source: SENER). ARGENTINA URUGUAY The renewable energy program hopes to achieve 2,974 MW of wind power capacity by 2015. (Source: ENARSA). This country expects to reach 1,000 MW of wind power capacity by 2015 (Source: MIEM).
Overview of energy sector in Latin America and the Caribbean Forecast of the generation mix by sources in LA&C Year 2011, Total 1,432 TWh Year 2030, Total 3,314 TWh Biomass 1% Other renewable 4% Crude oil & drivatives 12% Biomass 1% Other renewable 6% Crude oil & drivatives 6% Hydroenergy 50% Natural gas 26% Hydroenergy 48% Natural gas 33% Nuclear 2% Coal an coke 5% Source: Model of Simulation and Analysis of the Energy Mix SAME, OLADE, 2013 Nuclear 2% Forecast of the power installed capacity Technology Year 2011 (MW) Year 2030 (MW) Total increase Hydropower 151,601 257,839 70% Thermal 114,932 203,223 77% Geothermal 1,438 7,070 392% Wind 3,903 40,507 938% Nuclear and other 4,390 9,307 112% Coal an coke 4%
Overview of energy sector in Latin America and the Caribbean Comparative of unitary investment costs of some renewable sources 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 Milllions USD/MW 0.0 Solar thermal Biomass Solar photovoltaic Hydropower Geothermal Wind Source: own elaboration
Overview of energy sector in Latin America and the Caribbean Comparative of unitary generation costs with some renewable sources Generation costs USD/MWh 250 200 150 250 Fixed investment cost Fuel variable cost 100 50 93 104 126 93 O&M variable cost 0 Solar photovoltaic Hydropower ( 1700 US$/MW) Hydropower ( 2500 US$/MW) Wind Biomass Source: own elaboration
Overview of energy sector in Latin America and the Caribbean Forecast of the energy total supply mix in LA&C Year 2011 (5,909 Mboe) Year 2030 (11,026 Mboe) Hydroenergy 9% Biomass 14% Other renewables 3% Crude oil and derivatives 41% Biomass 12% Other renewables 4% Crude oil and derivatives 36% Nuclear 1% Coal and coke 4% Natural gas 28% Hydroenergy 11% Nuclear 1% Coal and coke 6% Natural gas 30% Source: Model of Simulation and Analysis of the Energy Mix SAME, OLADE, 2012
CONCLUSIONS
Overview of energy sector in Latin America and the Caribbean Conclusions 1. The regional energy mix is at present, largely dependent on oil and will continue to be in a very long term. However, LA&C is the region with higher indicator of renewable energy participation in the energy mix (26%). Regarding the participation of RE in electricity generation the indicator in LA&C is even higher (more than 55%). 2. There is great potential for expansion of crude oil production given the relationship between the volume of proven reserves and current production rate. 3. The expansion of natural gas production may require increased reserves in the majority of the producing countries. 4. The greatest contribution of renewable energy sources to diversify the regional energy mix, will be possible thanks to the huge increase in wind power generation by 2030. 5. Since the Latin American and the Caribbean region has a significant surplus of energy resources both renewable and non-renewable, it is clear that strategies for sustainable development should be focused on integration and increasing the renewability of the energy mix.