Resource Use and Economic Growth in Asia and the Pacific Heinz Schandl Senior Principal Scientist ECOSYSTEM SCIENCES/SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC SCIENCES PROGRAM
Why is sustainable use of resources and resource efficiency important for the region? Before 2008, pressure points including climate change, water and food availability, price surges for strategic raw materials, and peaking global oil supply are converging in an unprecedented manner Current global patterns of production and consumption are hitting the real limits of global resources and ecosystems Asia and the Pacific has twin objectives of raising standards of living (alleviate poverty) and environmental integrity When global growth stalled, countries such as China maintained rates of grow above 6% throughout, and have returned to double digit rates of growth Sustainable resource use will be instrumental for the region to ensure socio-economic development in a world in which resources are more constrained and the absorptive capacity of ecosystems is decreasing rapidly Challenge for public policy to achieve a transition to a Green Economy enabled by resource efficiency and systems innovation This will not occur spontaneously but will require well designed policies CSIRO. Resource Use and Economic Growth in Asia and the Pacific - Expert Dialogue on the Quality of Growth
Broadening the compass for decision making 3 CSIRO. Resource Use and Economic Growth in Asia and the Pacific - Expert Dialogue on the Quality of Growth
Measuring material flows and resource efficiency The CSIRO and UNEP Asia-Pacific material flow database CSIRO. Resource Use and Economic Growth in Asia and the Pacific - Expert Dialogue on the Quality of Growth
Integrative measures of the society-environment interface Physical material flow accounts (MFA) Physical and monetary system for integrated environmental and economic accounting (SEEA) Satellite accounts to the System of National Accounts (Bartelmus, 2002) CSIRO. Resource Use and Economic Growth in Asia and the Pacific - Expert Dialogue on the Quality of Growth
Specific to Asia Traditional (customary) and modern system (modern State) operate in parallel/contradiction Rural/urban differences and linkages Rural areas provide workers/consumers and their subsistence Urban incomes as driver of rural transition Food security vs. export incomes Dual objectives of environment and development (material standard of living, poverty, exclusion) Very specific socio-cultural characteristics Speed and scale of industrial transformation Almost no impact of current economic crisis 6 CSIRO. Resource Use and Economic Growth in Asia and the Pacific - Expert Dialogue on the Quality of Growth
Relationship between natural resource use and HDI Highly non-linear relationship Different costs of education, life expectancy and percapita income 1970: Globally uniform high-human development has been restricted by natural resource availability Today: Enough natural resources but unevenly distributed (Steinberger, 2010) Human Development Index (HDI) Material and Energy Use, Emissions 7 CSIRO. Resource Use and Economic Growth in Asia and the Pacific - Expert Dialogue on the Quality of Growth
Growth Domestic material consumption (DMC) 80,000 70,000 60,000 Asia-Pacific Rest of World World 70 billion tonnes (2008) Million tonnes 50,000 40,000 30,000 Asia-Pacific overtakes (2005) 20,000 10,000 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Source: Schandl and West (2010), UNEP (2011), West and Schandl (2012) 8 CSIRO. Resource Use and Economic Growth in Asia and the Pacific - Expert Dialogue on the Quality of Growth
Transition to new materials Domestic Material Consumption (DMC) 40,000 35,000 Metal ores and industrial minerals Fossil fuels Construction minerals 17% 1970 6% 30,000 Biomass 54% 23% Million tonnes 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 15% 2008 9% 25% 5,000 51% 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Source: Schandl and West (2010), UNEP (2011), West and Schandl (2012) 9 CSIRO. Resource Use and Economic Growth in Asia and the Pacific - Expert Dialogue on the Quality of Growth
Increasing dependence on natural resource imports Physical Trade Balance (PTB) measured as Imports minus Exports 1,200 1,000 800 Metal ores and industrial minerals Fossil fuels Construction minerals Biomass Million tonnes 600 400 200 0-200 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Source: Schandl and West (2010), UNEP (2011), West and Schandl (2012) 10 CSIRO. Resource Use and Economic Growth in Asia and the Pacific - Expert Dialogue on the Quality of Growth
Material efficiency DMC per GDP (exchange values at 2000 prices) 3.5 3.0 Asia-Pacific becomes less efficient kg/us$ 2.5 2.0 1.5 Global material efficiency declines 1.0 0.5 Asia-Pacific Rest of World World 0.0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Source: Schandl and West (2010), UNEP (2011), West and Schandl (2012) 11 CSIRO. Resource Use and Economic Growth in Asia and the Pacific - Expert Dialogue on the Quality of Growth
Per-capita Domestic Material Consumption 60 Domestic Material Consumption 50 40 30 20 10 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 Tonnes per capita 2002 2004 2006 2008 Australia China India Indonesia Japan Thailand Year Source: Schandl and West (2010), UNEP (2011), West and Schandl (2012) 12 CSIRO. Resource Use and Economic Growth in Asia and the Pacific - Expert Dialogue on the Quality of Growth
Per-capita Material Footprint Material Footprint 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 Tonnes per capita 2002 2004 2006 2008 Australia China India Indonesia Japan Thailand Year Source: Schandl and West (2010), UNEP (2011), West and Schandl (2012), Wiedmann et al. (forthcoming) 13 CSIRO. Resource Use and Economic Growth in Asia and the Pacific - Expert Dialogue on the Quality of Growth
Comparing Domestic Material Consumption (DMC) and Material Footprint (MF) Australia 60.0 30.0 Japan Tonnes per capita 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 DMC MF Tonnes per capita 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 DMC MF 0.0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Year China 0.0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Year 20.0 Tonnes per capita 15.0 10.0 5.0 DMC MF 0.0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Year Source: Schandl and West (2010), UNEP (2011), West and Schandl (2012), Wiedmann et al. (forthcoming) 14 CSIRO. Resource Use and Economic Growth in Asia and the Pacific - Expert Dialogue on the Quality of Growth
Resource Efficiency DMC per GDP (exchange values at 2000 prices) 3.00 Australia 1.00 Japan kg per US$ 2.00 1.00 MF/GDP DMC/GDP kg per US$ 0.75 0.50 0.25 MF/GDP DMC/GDP - - 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Year China 15.00 10.00 5.00-1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Year kg per US$ MF/GDP DMC/GDP Year 15 CSIRO. Resource Use and Economic Growth in Asia and the Pacific - Expert Dialogue on the Quality of Growth
Future of material use, example of China Domestic Material Consumption (DMC) Million tonnes 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 DMC (1970-2008) DMC (2009-2050) 18.2 tonnes per-capita 19.5 billion tonnes China 25.6 tonnes per-capita 28.7 tonnes per-capita 40 billion tonnes - 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Assuming decadal GDP growth to decline to 3% per annum by 2050 5% per annum improvement in material intensity Medium population projection of 1.4 billion by 2050 Source: Schandl and West (2010), UNEP (2011), West and Schandl (2012) 16 CSIRO. Resource Use and Economic Growth in Asia and the Pacific - Expert Dialogue on the Quality of Growth
Thailand Resource use profile 17 Source: CSIRO and UNEP Material Flow and Resource Productivity Database www.csiro.au/asiapacificmaterialflows Source: Schandl and West (2010), UNEP (2011), West and Schandl (2012) CSIRO. Resource Use and Economic Growth in Asia and the Pacific - Expert Dialogue on the Quality of Growth
Thailand Resource use profile Source: CSIRO and UNEP Material Flow and Resource Productivity Database www.csiro.au/asiapacificmaterialflows 120 million tonnes 580 million CSIRO. Resource Use and Economic Growth in Asia and the Pacific - Expert Dialogue on the Quality of Growth tonnes
Viet Nam Resource use profile Source: CSIRO and UNEP Material Flow and Resource Productivity Database www.csiro.au/asiapacificmaterialflows Source: Schandl and West (2010), UNEP (2011), West and Schandl (2012) CSIRO. Resource Use and Economic Growth in Asia and the Pacific - Expert Dialogue on the Quality of Growth
Viet Nam Resource use profile 20 Source: CSIRO and UNEP Material Flow and Resource Productivity Database www.csiro.au/asiapacificmaterialflows 70 million tonnes CSIRO. Resource Use and Economic Growth in Asia and the Pacific - Expert Dialogue on the Quality of Growth 800 million tonnes
Drivers of growing material use DMC (million tones) log P Population log A Consumption log MI Material intensity 1970-1980 3,114 50% 60% -10% 1980-1990 5,445 41% 56% 3% 1990-2000 8,397 31% 35% 34% 2000-2008 14,248 18% 48% 34% Source: Schandl and West (2010), UNEP (2011), West and Schandl (2012) 21 CSIRO. Resource Use and Economic Growth in Asia and the Pacific - Expert Dialogue on the Quality of Growth
Incremental and transformational policies Policies aimed at transforming current systems Production Green investment Cleaner production Eco-efficiency Extended producer responsibility Activity domains Construction/Housing Transport/Mobility Agriculture/Eating Manufacturing/Consumer goods Utilities/Water and electricity Green infrastructure and design Private Consumption Eco-labelling Service instead of purchasing Buy responsibly Government Consumption Green procurement Policies aimed at improving current behaviours within existing systems 22 CSIRO. Resource Use and Economic Growth in Asia and the Pacific - Expert Dialogue on the Quality of Growth
Thank you Ecosystem Sciences Division Social and Economic Sciences Program Heinz Schandl Senior Principal Scientist t +61 2 6246 4345 e heinz.schandl@csiro.au w http://www.csiro.auspx ADD BUSINESS UNIT/FLAGSHIP NAME