January 213 Christof Rühl, Group Chief Economist
Contents Introduction Global energy trends Outlook 23: Fuel by fuel Implications Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
Introduction Global energy trends Outlook 23: Fuel by fuel Implications Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
Population, income and energy growth Population GDP Primary energy Billion Trillion $211 PPP Billion toe 8 OECD Non-OECD 1 OECD Non-OECD 12 OECD non-oecd 6 75 9 4 5 6 2 25 3 199 21 23 199 21 23 199 21 23 Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
Industrialisation drives energy growth Billion toe 18 15 12 9 Other non-oecd 6 India 3 OECD 199 21 23 Energy Outlook 23 By region By primary use Billion toe 18 15 12 Power generation 9 6 Industry 3 Other Transport 199 21 23 Billion toe 18 15 12 9 6 By fuel Coal Coal Gas Gas 3 Oil Oil 199 21 23 *Includes biofuels Renew.* Hydro Nuclear BP 213
Transport Industry Other Power Transport Industry Other Power The power sector leads primary energy growth Growth by sector and region, 211-23 Growth by sector and fuel, 211-23 Billion toe Billion toe 3 2 1 RoW Middle East India OECD 3 2 1 Hydro Nuclear Renew. Electricity Gas Biofuels -1-1 Oil Coal Final energy use Inputs to power Final energy use Inputs to power Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
Transport Industry Other Power India Primary energy demand by fuel Growth by sector and fuel, 211-23 Mtoe Mtoe 12 1 8 6 4 2 199 2 21 22 23 *Includes biofuels Renew.* Hydro Nuclear Coal Gas Oil 3 2 1-1 Final energy use Hydro Nuclear Renew. Electricity Coal Gas Biofuels Gas Oil Coal Oil Inputs to power Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
Emerging economies dominate energy production Billion toe 18 15 12 9 Non-OECD 6 Non-OECD 3 OECD OECD 199 2 21 22 23 Billion toe 18 15 12 9 6 3 199 2 21 22 23 FSU S&C America N. America Middle East Europe India Asia P. ex India Africa Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
Fuel shares and energy prices Shares of world primary energy $211/boe Energy prices 5% Oil 4% Coal 3% 2% Gas 1% Hydro Nuclear Renewables* % 1965 198 1995 21 225 *Includes biofuels Energy Outlook 23 12 1 8 Oil - Brent Gas - basket Coal - basket 6 4 2 1965 198 1995 21 BP 213
Energy efficiency improvements Energy intensity by region Toe per thousand $211 GDP (PPP).5 US.4 Billion toe 5 4 Energy and GDP Trillion $211 (PPP) 2 15.3.2 3 2 GDP (RHS) 1.1 World EU*. 187 189 191 193 195 197 199 21 23 *Euro4 (France, Italy, Germany, UK) pre-197 Energy Outlook 23 5 1 Energy 197 199 21 23 BP 213
Energy efficiency improvements Energy intensity by region Toe per thousand $211 GDP (PPP).5 US.4 EU*.3.2 Billion toe 5 4 3 2 Energy and GDP Trillion $211 (PPP) 2 15 1 GDP (RHS).1 World India. 187 189 191 193 195 197 199 21 23 *Euro4 (France, Italy, Germany, UK) pre-197 Energy Outlook 23 5 1 Energy 197 199 21 23 BP 213
Energy supply growth Billion toe 17 16 15 Demand 23 level Supply Renew.* Hydro Nuclear 14 13 12 211 OECD Non-OECD 211 Oil Natural gas Coal Non-fossil Tight Other Other Shale *Includes biofuels Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
Asia Pacific N. America S. & C. America Africa Europe & Eurasia Middle East Asia Pacific N. America S. & C. America Africa Europe & Eurasia Middle East Shale gas and tight oil: resources and production Billion toe 6 4 2 Current resources Production in 23 Billion toe.9 Gas Oil.6.3. Resources data OECD/IEA 212 Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
US tight oil and shale gas: infrastructure requirements Onshore oil & gas rigs 211 Oil wells drilled and output Thousands Thousands Mb/d 2. 1.5 15 12 212* 211 21 Output (RHS) 5 4 1. 9 3.5 6 2. 3 1 Bakken Canada Colombia Energy Outlook 23 *Annualised from 1Q-3Q data BP 213
Introduction Global energy trends Outlook 23: Fuel by fuel Implications Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
High oil prices are reducing oil s share of primary energy Oil share of energy and GDP Oil share in sector % of energy % of GDP 6% 4% 2% Oil as % of primary energy Oil cost as % of GDP (RHS) 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% 1% 75% 5% 25% Power Other Industry Transport % % 1965 1978 1991 24 217 23 Energy Outlook 23 % 1965 1978 1991 24 217 23 BP 213
Global transport demand Billion toe Transport demand by fuel Litres per 1 km Fuel economy of new cars 3 2 1 199 21 23 Electricity Gas Coal Biofuels Oil - road Oil - non-road 12 9 6 3 EU US light vehicles 1995 25 215 225 Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
Global transport demand (2) Billion toe Transport demand by fuel Litres per 1 km Fuel economy of new cars 3 2 1 199 21 23 Electricity Gas Coal Biofuels Oil - road Oil - non-road 12 9 6 3 EU US light vehicles India 1995 25 215 225 Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
Global supply growth and tight oil Liquids supply by type Mb/d 15 OPEC share (RHS) 45% 9 75 6 45 3 15 199 2 21 22 3% 23 OPEC NGLs OPEC crude Biofuels Oil sands Tight oil Other non-opec Mb/d 1 8 6 4 2 Russia S. America N. America NGLs Tight oil output % of total (RHS) 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % 2 21 22 23 Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
Global liquids balance Demand Supply Mb/d 15 1 95 9 85 Other S&C Am. Mid East India 23 level Tight oil Biofuels Oil sands NGLs Iraq OPEC-11 NGLs 8 211 OECD declines Non-OECD growth 211 Non-OPEC declines Non-OPEC growth OPEC growth Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
Unconventional oil and the call on OPEC Unconventionals share of net global supply growth Mb/d Call on OPEC & spare capacity Mb/d 1% Biofuels 9 Spare capacity Call on OPEC (RHS) 36 75% Oil sands Tight oil 6 33 5% 25% 3 3 % 2-1 21-2 22-3 27 2 21 22 23 Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
Shale gas and global supply growth Gas production by type and region Shale gas production Bcf/d Bcf/d 5 4 3 2 1 Non-OECD other Non-OECD shale OECD shale OECD other 8 6 4 2 RoW Europe & Eurasia Canada & Mexico US % of total (RHS) 18% 12% 6% 199 2 21 22 23 % 199 2 21 22 23 Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
Shale gas: regional growth Sources of gas supply, by region Bcf/d N. America Bcf/d EU Bcf/d 12 12 12 Net pipeline imports 1 8 6 1 8 6 1 8 6 Net LNG imports Shale gas production Other domestic production 4 4 4 2 2 2-2 199 21 23-2 199 21 23-2 199 21 23 Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
Shale gas: regional growth (2) Sources of gas supply, by region Bcf/d EU Bcf/d Bcf/d India 6 6 6 Net pipeline imports 5 4 5 4 5 4 Net LNG imports Shale gas production Other domestic production 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 199 21 23 199 21 23 199 21 23 Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
Gas trade and market integration LNG exports LNG diversification Bcf/d 8 2% 1 Suppliers per importer 6 4 % of total consumption (RHS) 15% 1% 8 6 4 Customers per exporter 2 LNG 5% 2 % 199 2 21 22 23 Energy Outlook 23 1991 1996 21 26 211 BP 213
Global gas balance Demand Supply Bcf/d 5 45 4 India Other non-oecd 23 level OECD 35 3 Other OECD N. America Middle East Non-OECD 25 211 OECD Non-OECD 211 Non-shale Shale Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
Non-fossil fuels Billion toe 2. 1.5 1..5 Renewables Biofuels Hydro Nuclear OECD Billion toe 2. 1.5 1..5 Non-OECD Renewables in power. 199 2 21 22 23 Biofuels. 199 2 21 22 23 Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
Growth of renewables in power 2% 15% Share of power generation Nuclear 197-2 Renewable power Growth 211-3, and share of power % share 25% Growth (RHS) Share 211 2% Share 23 % p.a. 15% 12% 1% Non-OECD 5% Renewables 2-23 OECD % 2 21 22 23 197 198 199 2 15% 1% 5% % OECD Europe Other OECD Non-OECD 9% 6% 3% % Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
Power generation and electricity use Electricity share of final consumption Shares of power output 5% 4% Other 1% 8% Oil Nuclear 3% 2% Industry 6% 4% Hydro Gas 1% Transport % 199 21 23 2% Coal Renew. % 197 199 21 23 Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
Introduction Global energy trends Outlook 23: Fuel by fuel Implications Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
Oil and gas: reserves and production N. America Europe FSU Key: % share of global total 5% % 211 reserves 23 output Net importers 211 Net exporters 211 S. & C. America Africa Middle East Asia Pacific Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
Tight oil and shale gas uncertainties Mb/d 1 8 6 4 2 Range of tight oil forecasts (excludes NGLs) Range BP 75% 5% 25% Share of global supply growth Shale gas Tight oil Range of shale gas forecasts Bcf/d 12 Range BP 1 8 6 4 2 21 22 23 % 2-1 21-2 22-3 21 22 23 Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
199 21 23 199 21 23 199 21 23 199 21 23 Energy imbalances: import profiles Energy imbalances Energy imbalances to GDP ratio Mtoe India EU US Toe per $Mln GDP PPP 3-3 6 4 2 EU US India -6 Oil -2-9 -1,2 Gas Coal -4-6 -8 199 2 21 22 23 Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
199 21 23 199 21 23 199 21 23 Energy imbalances: export profiles Mtoe 8 6 4 2 Energy imbalances Saudi Arabia Africa Russia Oil Gas Coal Energy imbalances to GDP ratio Toe per $Mln GDP PPP 12 Saudi Arabia 1 Russia 8 Africa 6 4 2 199 2 21 22 23 Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
Energy and carbon emissions CO 2 emissions and primary energy Billion tonnes CO 2 Billion toe 5 Emissions from energy use 18 4 15 Primary energy (RHS) 3 12 2 9 6 1 3 197 199 21 23 % p.a. 8% 6% 4% 2% Gas % Oil -2% Growth of CO 2 emissions 197-199 199-21 21-23 India EU US Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
Conclusion % p.a. 4% 3% 2% 1% % Income per capita Populatio n Economic growth Efficiency gains New supply Economic growth needs energy Competition and innovation are the key to meeting this need energy efficiency new supplies Energy security and climate change remain challenges Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
January 213
Alternative for #4 Billion 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 Population Other non-oecd 2 India 1 OECD 197 199 21 23 Energy Billion toe 18 15 12 9 6 3 197 199 21 23 GDP Trillion, $211 PPP 18 15 12 9 6 3 197 199 21 23 Energy Outlook 23 38 BP 213
Transport Industry Other Power India Primary energy demand by fuel Growth by sector and fuel, 211-23 Mtoe Mtoe 12 1 8 6 4 2 199 2 21 22 23 *Includes biofuels Renew.* Hydro Nuclear Coal Gas Oil 3 2 1-1 Final energy use Hydro Nuclear Renew. Electricity Coal Gas Biofuels Gas Oil Coal Oil Inputs to power Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
Global transport demand (with India forecast added, no history) Billion toe Transport demand by fuel Litres per 1 km Fuel economy of new cars 3 2 1 199 21 23 Electricity Gas Coal Biofuels Oil - road Oil - non-road 12 9 6 3 EU US light vehicles India 1995 25 215 225 Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
Alternative or additional Bcf/d 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 199 2 21 22 23 Gas demand by sector Russia Bcf/d India Bcf/d 5 Transport 45 Other 4 35 Industry Industry 3 Power 25 2 India India 15 Power 1 OECD OECD 5 OECD 199 2 21 22 23 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Industry Power Oil India India India OECD OECD 199 2 21 22 23 Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
Alternative for #21 - Version 1 Sources of gas supply, by region Bcf/d EU Bcf/d Bcf/d India 6 6 6 Net pipeline imports 5 4 5 4 5 4 Net LNG imports Shale gas production Other domestic production 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 199 21 23 199 21 23 199 21 23 Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
Alternative for #21 - Version 2 (different scales) Sources of gas supply, by region Bcf/d N. America Bcf/d EU Bcf/d India 12 12 3 Net pipeline imports 1 1 25 Net LNG imports 8 6 8 6 2 15 Shale gas production Other domestic production 4 4 1 2 2 5-2 199 21 23-2 199 21 23-5 199 21 23 Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
High oil prices are reducing oil s share of primary energy 1% 75% 5% 25% Oil share in sector Power Other Industry Transport Litres per 1 km 12 1 8 6 4 2 Fuel economy of new cars EU US light vehicles % 1965 1978 1991 24 217 23 Energy Outlook 23 1995 25 215 225 BP 213
Coal consumption Coal demand by region Coal demand by sector Billion toe Billion toe 5 5 Oil Other 4 3 4 3 Industry Industry 2 India India India Other Other Non-OECD non-oecd 1 OECD OECD OECD 199 2 21 22 23 2 India India India 1 Power Power OECD OECD 199 2 21 22 23 Energy Outlook 23 BP 213