Reducing the Uncertainty in Groundwater Availability and its Sensitivity to Land-use and Climate Variability Edwin Cey and GRIP* Team, Dept. of Geoscience *GRIP (Groundwater Recharge in the Prairies) Water Innovation Program Forum May 23 24, 218
Masaki Hayashi Larry Bentley Shawn Marshall Kabir Rasouli Amro Negm Yue Liu Laura Morgan Alexandra Hughes Polina Abdrakhimova Aaron Mohammed Amir Niazi, Alanna Felske, Freda LeBlanc, Evan Sieben, Eric Mott, Paul Fontaine, Kristyn Juergensen, and more Igor Pavlovskii Brandon Hill
Research Partners Christensen, Perry, Stauffer, and Wooliams families
Groundwater Flow Systems Precip Understanding recharge Evaluate spatial and temporal variability Surface and subsurface complexity Recharge ET 1 m Mudstone Discharge Sandstone GW Storage Glacial Sed. Discharge Discharge Valley Creek 1-1 km
Study Sites Edmonton Stauffer Spy Hill Calgary Triple G** 2 existing sites 1 expanded site** 3 new sites Ft. McLeod Perry LDF
Field Monitoring Eddy flux tower Runoff trap Instrumented soil pits Glacial till Boreholes & Wells Bedrock
Challenges and Progress Areas 1. Land Use Effects Irrigated vs Dryland Cropland vs Grassland 2. Snowmelt & Frozen Soils Jan 21 Jan 23 3. Model Development 25 m 4. Potential Climate Change Impacts
LDF 9 Perry 5 m Upland Depression Depression Depr. Flatlands 6 m 1 Legend Irrigated Monitoring Station Dryland Monitoring Station Irrigated Borehole only Dryland Borehole only Upland
Depth (mbgs) 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 Chloride Mass Balance P C P = R C R LDF Cl (mg/l) F4 PW F8 PW F1 PW F4 GW F8 GW F1 GW Depth (mbgs) Irrig Dep Topographic position (upland/depression) Irrig Up 14 Dry Dep trumps water inputs (irrigation/dryland) Dry Up where topography 16 exists 5 1 15 2 25 5 1 15 2 25 1 12 Perry 2 Field Recharge (mm/yr) 4 F4 42 F8 23 F1 13 6 8 Field Recharge (mm/yr) Irr Dep 25 Irr Up 5 Dry Dep 37 Dry Up 2 Cl (mg/l)
Recharge Sources Irrig. vs. Dryland 11 13 15 Depressions LMWL (Peng et al. 214) Irrigation Water Irrig Avg 11 13 15 Uplands LDF F8 (irrig) PF IU (irrig) LDF F1 (dry) PF DU (dry) δ 2 H water 17 19 Dryland Avg δ 2 H water 17 19 21 Snow LDF F4 (irrig) PF ID (irrig) 21 23 PF DD (dry) 23 25 35 3 25 2 15 1 δ 18 O water 25 35 3 25 2 15 1 δ 18 O water
Triple G Cropland Grassland
Soil Moisture Crop vs Grassland 4 Precip. (mm) 2 Water Content (cm 3 cm 3 ) Water Content (cm 3 cm 3 ).6.5.4.3.2.1.6.5.4.3.2.1 Dep 2cm Dep 8cm Dep 15cm Cropland Grassland Jun 217 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Soil Moisture Crop vs Grassland 4 Precip. (mm) 2 Water Content (cm 3 cm 3 ) Water Content (cm 3 cm 3 ).6.5.4.3.2.1.6.5.4.3.2.1 Dep 2cm Dep 8cm Dep 15cm Up 2cm Up 8cm Up 15cm Cropland Grassland Jun 217 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Snowmelt Dynamics ΔSnowcover + Precip = Runoff + Vapor flux + Infiltration 4 2 Stauffer Water equivalent (mm) 2 4 4 2 2 4 6 3 Mar 16 Spyhill Triple G 7% of snowmelt infiltrates Ground still frozen Frozen soil preferential flow 3 6 Jan 16 Jan 17 Feb 17 Mar 17
Versatile Soil Moisture Budget (VSMB) Sublimation ET Precip ET Snow ET Precip ET Sublimation Overflow Upland Recharge Depression Recharge
VSMB Evapotranspiration ET (mm d -1 ) 5 4 3 2 1 Improve VSMB accuracy for ET and Soil Moisture varying land use (e.g., grassland, different crops) Simulated Sim. ET_VSMB Observed Obs. ET -1 Stauffer Grassland -2 Mar 15 Aug 15 Jan 16 Jun 16 Nov 16 Apr 17
VSMB Soil Moisture Water Content (cm 3 cm 3 ) Water Content (cm 3 cm 3 ) Water Content (cm 3 cm 3 ).5.4 VSMB Simul.3 TDR Meas..2.1..5.4.3.2.1..5.4.3.2.1 1 cm Depth 5 cm 15 cm. Mar 15 Aug 15 Jan 16 Jun 16 Nov 16 Apr 17
Recharge Estimation AGS Low (grassland) Edmonton High (cropland) Recharge (mm/yr) 4 5 6 1 11 15 16 2 21 25 26 3 31 35 36 Calgary Upcoming AGS Report Klassen, Liggett, Pavlovskii and Abdrakhimova
Sustainable Groundwater Management 1 Recharge Discharge = Storage ( water level) 1 Sustainable pumping rate (or yield)?
Sustainable Groundwater Management Recharge Pumping Discharge = Storage change 1 8 Long-term equilibrium: Reduced Discharge S 2
Max. Sustained Yields AGS Low Edmonton High Max. Sustained Yield (1 6 m 3 /yr) 1.6 2 21 4 41 6 61 8 81 1 11 12 121 129 Calgary Upcoming AGS Report Klassen, Liggett, Pavlovskii and Abdrakhimova
Climate Model Bias Correction Study domain Climate models are: biased low resolution Correct WRF model output with Spyhill data
Many Questions Remain!