Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security in Pakistan: Adaptation Options and Strategies by PIDE TEAM Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad and International Development Research Centre, Canada
Introduction Scientific community agrees that climate change is already a reality. 262 mln people were affected by climate disasters in 2004 Over 98% in developing countries
Introduction. Pakistan is the most vulnerable countries in South Asia. In 2010 floods, 20 million people were seriously affected women, elderly, children, poor
Potential impacts of climate change on agricultural crops POSITIVE IMPACTS Higher productivity New crops Lower moisture stress Higher productivity from enhanced CO2 Accelerated maturation rates Longer growing seasons Net impact PROJECTED CHANGES temperatures Drier or wetter conditions frequency climatic events Enhanced atmospheric CO2 Changing market conditions Uncertain & depends on the adaptation measures. NEGETIVE IMPACTS Higher insect infestations Crop damages from extreme heat Planning problems less reliable forecasts Moisture stress & droughts Lower herbicide & pesticide efficacy Higher weed growth and disease outbreaks Greater Soil Erosion Source: Lemmen and Warren (2004 )Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: A Canadian Perspective.
Source: Ramamasy and Bass (2007) Climate Variability and Change: Adaptation to Drought in Bangladesh. Asian Disaster Preparedness Centre and FAO. Climatic factors are direct inputs to agriculture. Cereals are already under Humidity heat stress in South Asia. Yields Factors Influencing Crop Production could by 30% by end of century due to CC (IPCC, 2007). Solar Radiation Rainfall Pakistan is among the most vulnerable countries in South Asia -- ranked 12 th most vulnerable climate change in world. Temperature 1 0 C wheat yield by 5 7% Wind Pakistan speed Transpiration (Sivakumar et al, 2011 Evaporation
These changes & their effects influence socio-economic and environmental conditions -- impacting livelihoods, health, settlements. Majority of our population depends on agriculture. 80% irrigated making agriculture most sensitive to CC
Sector contributions and sensitivities to climate change http://www.regional.org.au/au/asa/2010/climate-change/ adaptation/7418_hayman.htm
Water availability for food self-sufficiency (by 2050) approaching end of the road unless income growth allows.. to import the food required (P65). Pakistan is ranked 28 th affected by CC, 22 in Africa (IUCN, 2009). <1,300 m3/capita/year deficit. Falkenmark, et al (2009)
Floods and Droughts Co-exist Fire Drought
Extreme weather events serious disrupt food security Imagine the human misery
Women and Children health at risk
Imbalance Leads to Chronic food & Nutritional Insecurity
Special focuses of the project are to: review & evaluate existing policies & support functions of various institutions examine the impact of CC on agricultural productivity and food security; investigate the factors affecting the farmers decisions related to adaptations; identify indigenously developed best-practices and adopted by the communities and assess their potential to be scaled;
Coping Strategies International experience. Pakistan? IRRI developed drought resistant rice Floating mat garden
Build analytical capacity of the staff and students Exploring the gender role in farm and off-farm activities with reference to adaptations towards adverse climate events.
No amount of technologies or external assistance can feed a nation that does not itself prioritize food security and agriculture (Norman Borlaug), which is highly dependent climate
Gaps in Research CC research on Pakistan lacks human dimension: How people the poor, the vulnerable, children, females are affected by the CC. This understanding is vital to come up with credible strategies and actions. There is paucity of micro evidence on impact of CC and adaptation on crop yields.
The approach? Comprehensive review of policy & research documents and development initiatives dealing with CC, food security and disaster management issues; Review of R&D activities to assess how far the research activities are geared to meet the challenges of CC; District level panel data shall be analysed to capture inter-temporal and inter-spatial variations Experimental data from various research stations of NARS be examined -- sharply focused research and more precisely controlled factors and can be related to changes in technology and climatic variables
Rapid Appraisal and focus group discussions: community perceptions on CC and coping strategies; Identification of areas for in depth case studies. Household survey data -- captures spatial variation as well as farm level technology, farm/farmer specific characteristics and other socio-economic factors to estimate effect of CC & other stressors on productivity & cropping pattern in different agroecologies. The potential of indigenously developed best-practices & adopted shall be assessed for scaling up with special emphasis on water and land conservation practices
Project Outcomes Policy & research gaps identified -- CC issues reprioritized for policy decisions; Institutional capacity enhanced through training and other relevant activities; Comprehensive knowledge on adverse climate events happened overtime documented for different agroecologies; Experimental data interpreted in relation to CC variables; Emerging challenges for R&D specified from CC perspective
Project Outcomes.. Impacts of adoption technological packages analysed at household and regional levels Critical factors influencing adoption identified Preparation of HH and area specific action plans to combat CC effects Feasibilities of best practices developed for replication under relevant situations