Continued erratic rainfall after a late onset in parts of the country

ZAMBIA Food Security Outlook January to June 2014 Continued erratic rainfall after a late onset in parts of the country KEY MESSAGES Figure 1. Current food security outcomes, January 2014. Food insecurity outcomes are expected to be Minimal (IPC Phase 1) during the January to June period despite some populations mostly in the south experiencing livelihood protection deficits. Consumers continue to face high staple food prices and this situation is expected to persist up to the peak price period of March. The supply of maize to millers and communities by the Food Reserve Agency (FRA) should stabilize prices and improve the supply of maize in rural areas; reducing the distance households travel to purchase maize meal. The seasonal forecast update for the January to March period indicates a likelihood of normal to below normal rainfall, a downgrade from the earlier forecast. This could entail mid-season dry spells which would negatively affect areas such as the eastern parts of the country which had a delayed start, along with the southeastern areas, parts of Central and Lusaka Provinces where rainfall has been erratic since the late start season. This map represents acute food insecurity outcomes relevant for emergency decision-making. It does not necessarily reflect chronic food insecurity. Visit www.fews.net/ipc for more on this scale. SEASONAL CALENDAR FOR A TYPICAL YEAR FEWS NET Zambia zambia@fews.net www.fews.net FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government

NATIONAL OVERVIEW Current Situation Figure 2. Projected food security outcomes, January March 2014. Food security outcomes have remained Minimal (IPC Phase 1) during the lean season despite most households finishing their own staple food stocks. Most households are depending on the market for their staple food. Maize and meal prices have remained atypically high in most districts due in part to higher marketing costs, increased local market demand, along with continued high regional demand. The Government of Zambia (GoZ), through the FRA, has started selling maize on the market to help stabilize prices and to make staple food more accessible to poorer households in both urban and rural areas. The FRA is selling to millers at K85/50 kg and to rural communities at K80/50 kg; both are moderately lower than prices in local markets. So far 162,900 MT has been allocated for sale on the local market by the FRA. Figure 3. Projected food security outcomes, April-June 2014. Maize stock levels in the country are still adequate to meet demand during the outlook period of January to June. The ban of maize exports by GoZ and continued patrol along the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) border is contributing to maintaining comfortable national level stocks. Informal exports to the DRC have drastically decreased and this has pushed up maize meal and grain prices by 25 percent and 21 percent, respectively, in Kasumbalesa (DRC) between November and December 2013. Informal exports into Tanzania have dropped to insignificant levels and there is an observed flow of maize from Tanzania through Zambia that is destined for the DRC. The atypical maize flow from Zambia into Malawi has dropped by approximately 50 percent since farmer supplies are substantially lower. Following a very late start of season in eastern, south-eastern and parts of Lusaka, Central and Northern Provinces (Figure 4), the rains picked up in December. Planting rains in these areas were This map represents acute food insecurity outcomes relevant for emergency decision-making. It does not necessarily reflect chronic food insecurity. Visit www.fews.net/ipcfor more on this scale. mostly received towards the end of December which resulted in replanting, late planting and some fields not being planted at all. Consequently, crops are at various stages of development, ranging from early vegetative to early flowering. Most maize and sorghum in Gwembe valley is knee high. Crops in these areas are generally fair to good and they should perform well if rainfall continues (Figure 5). In parts of the Southern Province including the valley, crops have reached the top dressing stage but government subsidized top dressing fertilizer has not been received. Among farmers, planting cotton is less preferable due to low prices in 2011/12. In Eastern Province, most of the crop was Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2

reported to have recovered from moisture stress and is doing well, but some fields have not been planted due to late rains. Figure 4. Start of season anomaly as of December 20, 2013. Figure 5. Soil Water Index as of January 10, 2014. Source: Meteorology Department/FEWS NET Office Source: Meteorology Department/FEWS NET National Level Assumptions The January to June 2014 Food Security Outlook is based on the following national-level assumptions: Staple food availability: The average maize production in the 2012/13 season and restricted maize exports in the current marketing season support good in-country stocks. The country has adequate stocks to meet the demand during the outlook period of January to June. It is therefore assumed that the supply of staple food on the market should remain stable up to June. Maize market and prices: Despite adequate local stocks, the price of maize and meal has remained atypically high partly due to increased marketing costs and high maize demand. The high prices of staple food are expected to continue during the outlook period even though FRA began selling maize to both millers and rural communities in December. The release of FRA maize at market prices should help to stabilize prices that are currently at least 30 percent above the previous season and the five year average. Maize flows and trade: Given that most of the maize is in the hands of the FRA and that restricted maize exports will continue, informal maize flows will remain relatively low. Outflow to the DRC will be atypically low as border patrols remain. Maize outflow to Tanzania and Malawi will also reduce as farmer surplus stocks run out. Agroclimatology: The Southern Africa seasonal forecast has been downgraded to average to below average rainfall. Therefore, Zambia has a likelihood of receiving normal to below normal rainfall from January to March. Although the rains were late to start in the Eastern Province and have been below normal, rains are expected to consistently continue during the January to March period. The combination of delayed and erratic rainfall resulted in reduced and delayed planting, along with some replanting. As a result it is likely that there will be reduced crop production in the 2013/14 season, in comparison to the last four consecutive seasons. Additionally, there will be slight delay in the availability of some early harvested foods in rural areas. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 3

Most Likely Food Security Outcomes The food security situation outcome is likely to remain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) with a small population facing livelihood protection deficit mostly in the South and Western Provinces. The local supply of staple food will remain adequate throughout the outlook period. Staple food prices will remain atypically high, peaking in March. Prices will decrease once green foods start to become available. Agricultural labor opportunities (weeding and harvesting) for poorer wealth groups will remain good up to April/May. Livestock conditions in southern Zambia will continue improving as pasture and water points increase with improved rainfall even though rainfall may be below seasonal average. While this will not directly improve food access for poorer households, it will improve earnings for the better-off households and this will indirectly increase labor opportunities for the poor. AREA OF CONCERN Gwembe Valley livelihood zone (Sinazongwe, Gwembe, Siavonga, southern Kalomo and southern Kazungula districts). Current Situation Poor households are either working in exchange for food or depending on the market for staple food. Household income sources include the sale of agricultural labor which is in high demand (weeding), non-agricultural labor, and the sale of small livestock and petty trading. Households that are making market purchases are paying more for staple food in comparison to previous seasons. Maize grain prices at Choma market are 87 and 60 percent, respectively, above last year and the five year average, while roller maize meal prices are 48 percent above last year and 35 percent above the five year average. The high prices are due to reduced availability of maize in the communities. Additionally, increased marketing costs after the removal of the fuel subsidy have contributed to higher maize prices. About 10 percent of the population is receiving relief food through March 2014 based on recommendations by the VAC s in depth assessment in April/May. Additional communities in Gwembe district have appealed for food assistance from the Disaster Management and Mitigation Unit (DMMU). Poor households are depending more on maize meal due to the shortage of maize grain in local markets. As a result they are facing high meal prices. Households in more remote areas have been travelling long distances to district and sub-district centers to buy maize meal. The area experienced a delayed start of the season with planting rains starting approximately 20 days late (Dec. 10-20). This has lead to a shorter planting window this season. In addition, some farmers who depend on the government subsidized inputs are yet to receive seed and fertilizer. Instead farmers are using carry over seed while others are not planting because they do not have enough income to afford inputs, especially since the subsidy on fertilizer has reduced from 75 percent to 50 percent. Cattle conditions are generally fair to poor due to inadequate pasture, but improved rainfall during December has increased pasture and water points for the livestock. Assumptions In addition to the national assumptions described above, the following assumptions have been made about Gwembe Valley livelihood zone: Agricultural labor opportunities will be increasingly available throughout the outlook period and labor wages are expected to be at normal levels as better-off households require labor for weeding (Jan-Feb) and harvesting (May). Famine Early Warning Systems Network 4

By the end of March, households will be accessing their green harvest. However due to late start of season and erratic rainfall, amounts will likely be less than usual, but still help fill the food gap while awaiting the main harvest in April/May. Reduced access to fertilizer by poor small scale farmers during the 2013/14 growing season due to the increase in the cost of the FISP pack (as indicated by district agricultural officers in Gwembe and Sinazongwe) may subsequently lead to reduced yields and harvests. Most Likely Food Security Outcomes Increased food prices will limit poor household food access and some households will face difficulties in affording essential non-food items. Deficits will be most severe during the January-February period but the affected households are likely to receive relief food from the DMMU. In March there is likely to be improvements as households begin to access the green harvest. As the harvest period begins between April and June, households will have adequate access to food from their own production. Additionally, poor households will be able to work for food as better-off households require labor for harvesting. EVENTS THAT MAY CHANGE THE OUTLOOK Table 1. Possible events over the next six months that could change the most-likely scenario. Area Event Impact on food security outcomes Gwembe Valley Serious mid-season dry Based on the revised SARCOF 2013/14 rainfall forecast of normal to Livelihood Zone spells above normal rainfall, mid-season dry spells from January to February could cause crop wilting, poor fertilization and consequently lower yields than the previous season.this would also entail further negative impacts on water availability and pasture conditions. ABOUT SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT To project food security outcomes over a six-month period, FEWS NET develops a set of assumptions about likely events, their effects, and the probable responses of various actors. FEWS NET analyzes those assumptions in the context of current conditions and local livelihoods to develop scenarios estimating food security outcomes. Typically, FEWS NET reports the most likely scenario. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 5