Implementation Updates for 2015 Ozone NAAQS

Implementation Updates for 2015 Ozone NAAQS Anna Marie Wood, Director, Air Quality Policy Division Richard A. Chet Wayland, Director, Air Quality Assessment Division U.S. Environmental Protection Agency WESTAR Fall Meeting, November 2015

What We Will Cover 2015 Final Ozone Standards Primary: 70 ppb Secondary: 70 ppb Updated standards Implementation-related plans Upcoming guidance/actions Designations Other implementation milestones Ozone background 2

Updated 2015 Ozone Standards Based on the science, the Administrator determined that the 2008 standard was not adequate to protect public health. Revised primary standard of 70 ppb EPA also strengthened the secondary (welfare) standard to 70 ppb. EPA determined that a standard that generally limits cumulative, seasonal exposures above a W126 index level of 17 parts per million-hours (ppm-hours) will provide requisite protection. W126 = cumulative, seasonal index used to measures ozone damage to vegetation Analyses of data from air quality monitors show that a level of 70 ppb will limit cumulative, seasonal exposures above a W126 index of 17 ppm-hours, averaged over three years. Final rule published on October 26, 2015 (80 FR 65292) 3

Implementing the 2015 Ozone NAAQS: Memo from Acting Assistant Administrator EPA will work state, tribal, local and federal agencies to implement the updated standards in a way that maximizes common sense, flexibility and cost-effectiveness, while following the requirements of the Clean Air Act. Memo issued with the revised standards, outlines the Agency s plans for addressing issues related to: Guidance available to agencies; Ensuring major source permitting is effective and efficient; Designating areas; Background ozone; Interstate ozone transport; The challenges of reducing ozone in California; Managing monitoring networks; Emissions from wildland fires; and Transportation planning 4

Implementation-Related Rules & Guidance Current or draft guidance that applies to the revised NAAQS: Guidance on Infrastructure State Implementation Plan (SIP) Elements under CAA Sections 110(a)(1) and 110(a)(2) September 13, 2013 (http://www.epa.gov/airquality/urbanair/sipstatus/infrastructure.html) Draft Emissions Inventory Guidance for Implementation of Ozone [Particulate Matter] National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) and Regional Haze Regulations April 2014 (http://www3.epa.gov/ttn/chief/eidocs/eiguid/index.html) Draft Modeling Guidance for Demonstrating Attainment of Air Quality Goals for Ozone, PM 2.5, and Regional Haze December 2014 and Guidance on the Use of Models and Other Analyses for Demonstrating Attainment of Air Quality Goals for Ozone, PM 2.5, and Regional Haze April 2007 (http://www.epa.gov/scram001/guidance_sip.htm) 5

Implementation-Related Rules & Guidance, cont. Current rules that apply to the revised NAAQS: Revisions to the General Conformity Regulations (75 FR 17254, April 5, 2010) and guidance (40 CFR part 93, subpart B and 40 CFR part 51, subpart W) (http://www3.epa.gov/airquality/genconform/regs.html) Transportation Conformity Rule (77 FR 14979, March 14, 2012) and Guidance for Transportation Conformity Implementation in Multi-Jurisdictional Nonattainment and Maintenance Areas February 2012 (40 CFR part 93, subpart A and 40 CFR part 51, subpart T) (http://www3.epa.gov/otaq/stateresources/transconf/index.htm) 6

Upcoming Implementation-Related Rules/Guidance/Activities Area designations guidance (including rural transport areas) Nonattainment area classifications and attainment dates rule Updates to nonattainment area SIP requirements rule, including possible anti-backsliding provisions for 2008 NAAQS Nationwide interstate transport contribution assessment Updates to transportation conformity guidance White paper and workshop on background ozone issues PSD permitting: Final update to Appendix W modeling guideline Guidance on ozone SIL and MERPs PSD offset guidance 7

Implementation Rules: Subpart 2 Translation/Interpretation Would cover any necessary updates to the 2008 Ozone NAAQS State Implementation Plan Requirements Rule (O3 SRR). Status of petitions for reconsideration and review. Update the SIP due dates for emissions inventories, RACT, attainment plans/demos, RFP plans, contingency measure plans, section 185 programs. Address ongoing implementation for 2008 NAAQS, including revoking the 2008 NAAQS and anti-backsliding provisions. 8

PSD Permitting Grandfathering provision: Permit can be issued under terms of compliance with the 2008 ozone NAAQS if: A. the permit application was deemed complete by October 1, 2015, or B. the draft permit is undergoing public comment before the effective date of NAAQS. Compliance demonstration tools (MERPs, SILs) PSD offsets Update to 40 CFR Appendix W to Part 51 (Guideline on Air Quality Models) 9

Area Designations Final area designations due Fall 2017 - based on 2014-2016 final DVs (120-day letters by June 2017). Early-certified 2017 data may also be relevant to final designations. We expect state designation recommendations to be based on 2013-2015 and preliminary 2016 data, including any exceptional event considerations. Exceptional event demonstration submission deadlines: October 1, 2016 for 2014-2015 events May 31, 2017 for 2016 events Nonattainment area classification scheme Percent-above-standard approach? Voluntary reclassifications 10

Rural Transport Areas Clean Air Act section 182(h) defines a Rural Transport Area as: an ozone nonattainment area that does not include, and is not adjacent to any part of a Metropolitan Statistical Area or, where one exists, a Consolidated Metropolitan Statistical Area (as defined by the United States Bureau of the Census) ; and An area where the Administrator finds that sources of VOC (and, where the Administrator determines relevant, NOx) emissions within the area do not make a significant contribution to the ozone concentrations measured in the area or in other areas. Final 2008 Ozone NAAQS SIP Requirements Rule clarified that the CMSA portion is no longer a relevant restriction. A Rural Transport Area may be treated as satisfying the section 182 nonattainment area requirements if it makes the submissions required for Marginal areas. Emissions statement rule and inventory, NSR program. 11

Historical Rural Transport Areas No recent history of RTAs. To date, EPA has treated 4 areas as RTAs. They were for designations in 1991 for 1-hour ozone NAAQS. Edmonson County, KY Door County, WI Essex County Area - Whiteface Mountain, NY (partial county) Smyth County Area - White Top Mountain, VA (partial county) No states requested that EPA treat an area as an RTA for the 1997 NAAQS or 2008 NAAQS. 12

Rural Transport Areas Additional guidance on assessing overwhelming transport to be included in upcoming Ozone Area Designations Guidance OAQPS preliminary analysis of areas that could meet the geographic criterion (i.e., not part of or adjacent to an MSA) 2015 preliminary DV = 15 areas (8 in CA) Partial county boundaries may be considered RTA analysis would also need to show that sources of VOC and NOx emissions in the area do not make a significant contribution to ozone levels in the area or in other areas. What would an approvable state application look like? 13

Site Areas with Potential to Meet Geographic Criterion for RTA RO Location Type State County Prelim. 2015 DV 2010 Population 2011 VOC (county) 2011 NOx (county) 3 Micropolitan PA Indiana 71 88,880 5,017 35,803 5 Micropolitan MI Allegan 76 111,408 5,801 4,914 5 Micropolitan WI Manitowoc 72 81,442 3,833 3,678 8 County CO Rio Blanco 73 6,666 26,960 4,810 8 County UT Duchesne 76 18,607 36,896 11,116 8 Micropolitan UT Uintah 74 32,588 78,025 11,603 9 Micropolitan AZ Gila 72 53,597 10,854 2,619 9 County CA Amador 71 38,091 2,831 1,651 9 County CA Calaveras 73 45,578 4,491 1,447 9 County CA Mariposa (Yosemite) 74 18,251 10,290 936 9 County CA Mariposa (West) 75 18,251 10,290 936 9 Micropolitan CA Nevada (West) 81 98,764 5,020 2,932 9 Micropolitan CA Nevada (Tahoe NF) 71 98,764 5,020 2,932 9 Micropolitan CA Tehama 74 63,463 4,709 4,359 9 Micropolitan CA Tuolumne 74 55,365 10,222 2,497 18

Designations and Implementation: Tentative Timeline Designation Schedule State and Tribe Recommendations Schedule Within 1 year after NAAQS promulgation Tentative Date October 1, 2016 EPA responds to state and tribal recommendations June 1, 2017 Attainment Schedule by Classification Final Designation Within 2 years after NAAQS promulgation (Administrator has discretion to extend the deadline by one year to collect sufficient information.) October 1, 2017 Effective date may vary. (Air quality data years: 2014 2016) Classification Marginal Moderate Serious Severe Schedule* 3 years to attain 6 years to attain 9 years to attain 15 to 17 years to attain Implementation Schedule Infrastructure SIP Attainment Plans Due Within 3 years after NAAQS promulgation Within 36-48 months after designations depending on classification October 2018 October 2020-2021 Extreme 20 years to attain *Areas must attain as expeditiously as practical, but not later than the schedule in the table. Two one-year extensions are available in certain circumstances based on air quality. 15

Ozone from Background Sources Background ozone refers to ozone that forms from natural sources, such as wildfires or stratospheric intrusions, and from man-made pollution from sources outside the U.S. EPA is planning for further discussions with stakeholders on assessing areas for high background ozone and on applicable policies and tools. Relevant Clean Air Act provisions Exceptional event exclusions Area designations and rural transport areas Section 179B international emissions 16

Figure 2-15, EPA Policy Assessment. Distributions of the relative proportion of USB O 3 to total O 3, from 2007 CAMx source apportionment modeling, binned by model MDA8 O 3. Illustration = = = = = = >60 ppb 17

High Background Ozone Areas Potential state assistance needs Necessity/efficiency of national guidance vs. case-by-case assistance Preliminary stakeholder discussion questions: From the stakeholder perspective, what additional data elements and/or model improvements are needed to better characterize background O3 levels across the U.S.? From the stakeholder perspective, has EPA properly characterized the various CAA provisions under consideration for areas influenced by background O3? Are there sufficient technical tools and data available to make the demonstrations necessary to invoke relevant CAA provisions? 18

Factors and Initial Identification of Sites Strongly Affected by Background Ozone Several factors could be assessed to focus attention on areas that may be most appreciably influenced by background ozone on days that exceed the NAAQS. Current design values (e.g., sites currently > 70 ppb) Site-specific model estimates of background ozone (e.g., 2017 Transport Rule modeling) Amount of nearby emissions (e.g., 2011 NEI v2 emissions inventory) Initial EPA attempts to focus on which areas are most in need of background solutions suggest the following: Areas with appreciable background influence and relatively few local emissions include certain rural locations in AZ, NM, & NV. Other areas w/ appreciable background but slightly larger local emissions are seen in parts of CA, CO, NM, & UT. Other even larger cities, may have smaller but still non-negligible background contributions. 19

Appendix

Air Quality Index 21

Anticipated Schedule for 2015 Ozone NAAQS Implementation Rules/Guidance/Tools Action After NAAQS Promulgation Planned Dates Final 2015 Ozone NAAQS revision, monitoring rules, exceptional event demonstration schedule, and PSD permit grandfathering provision Upon promulgation October 2015 Propose Exceptional Events Rule revision and guidance on wildfire-related ozone demonstrations 1 month November 2015 Area designations guidance (including Rural Transport Areas) 4 months February 2015 Final update to PSD permit modeling guideline (Appendix W; proposed July 2015) 8 months June 2016 Final Exceptional Events Rule revision and guidance on wildfire-related ozone demonstrations 10 months August 2016 States submit area designation recommendations 12 months October 2016 Interstate ozone transport contribution assessment NODA 12 months October 2016 Propose nonattainment area rules/guidance (including area classifications, SIP due dates, nonattainment NSR provisions) 12 months October 2016 Final designations, classifications, and nonattainment area SIP rules/guidance 24 months October 2017 Update to transportation conformity guidance 25 months November 2017 States submit Infrastructure and Transport SIPs 36 months October 2018 States submit Attainment plans 5-6 years 2020-2021 22 Nonattainment Area Attainment Dates (Marginal Extreme) 5-22 years 2020-2037