B R I C S FOUNDRY FORUM RUSSIA 2015 B R A Z I L and Foundry Industry Overview / Trends Remo De Simone President Brazilian Foundry Association - ABIFA
MAIN TOPICS 1) Brazil in figures 2) Infrastructure and Raw Material 3) Cast Metal in Brazil 4) Foreign Trade 5) Trends Brazil and Foundry Industry
BRAZIL - 2014 POPULATION: 200.4 M AREA: 8.5 M km 2 GDP: 2.35 TRILLION US$ 7th WORLD ECONOMY FLEET OF VEHICLES: 41.7 M BRAZIL IS THE LARGEST COUNTRY IN SOUTH AMERICA REPRESENTS: 48% IN TERRITORY 51% OF POPULATION 48% OF GDP ONLY BRAZIL AND ARGENTINA HAVE A ESTABLISHED FOUNDRY INDUSTRY.
Brazil GDP Evolution Billion US$/ano 3.000 2,613 2.500 2.000 1.500 1.000 500 2,209 1,695 1,667 1,396 1,108 893 560 509 560 670 2,412 2,391 2,353 1,809* 0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Source: BACEN *2015 estimated
Brazil GDP Evolution (%) without inflation of the period 10 8 7,6 6 4 2 0 4,4 1,3 3,1 1,2 5,7 3,1 4,0 6,0 5,0-0,2 3,9 1,8 2,7 0,1 0,2-2 -1,8-4 Source: BACEN *estimated
Brazil Inflation Evolution (%) accumulated per year 14,0 12,0 12,5 10,0 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0 6,0 7,7 9,3 7,6 6,7 3,1 4,5 5,9 4,3 5,9 6,5 5,8 5,9 6,4 9,3 5,4 0,0 Source: BACEN *estimated
Participation of the Industry in GDP (%) Manufacturing Industry Foundry Industry 20,0 15,0 10,0 15,2 14,0 14,4 17,9 16,7 16,6 15,0 11,5 13,9 10,9 0,70 0,60 0,50 0,40 0,30 0,49 0,41 0,65 0,63 0,61 0,51 0,57 0,49 0,47 0,41 0,36 5,0 0,0 0,20 0,10 0,00 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 Source: IBGE/ABIFA
World Ranking GDP (Trillion US$) 2014 2015 ( * ) 1st USA 17.419 18.125 1st 2nd China 10.380 11.212 2nd 3rd Japan 4.616 4.210 3rd 4th Germany 3.860 3.413 4th 5th UK 2.945 2.853 5th 6th France 2.847 2.470 6th 7th BRAZIL 2.353 2.308 7th INDIA 8th Italy 2.148 1.843 8th 9th INDIA 2.050 1.809 9th BRAZIL 10th Russia 1.857 1.615 10th Canada Source: BACEN ( * ) PREVIEW 8
MAIN TOPICS 1) Brazil in figures 2) Infrastructure and Raw Material 3) Cast Metal in Brazil 4) Foreign Trade 5) Trends Brazil and Foundry Industry
Electric Power Hydro Generation is the main source in Brazil 95.7 GW Install Capac Source: ANEEL/FIRJAN
Natural Resources - Electricity for its continental dimensions, hydro generation is the main source in Brazil - Iron Ore Brazil is the third largest producer and also has the third reserve of iron ore - Bauxite Ore Bauxite ore (aluminum) - also in this case, we are the third largest producer and have the third reserve of bauxite ore for the production of primary aluminum
Brazil has a surplus in its main raw materials 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 100 100 100 50,3 40 36,5 Pig Iron Aluminum Ferroalloys production exports Source: ABAL/ABRAFE/SINDIFER
MAIN TOPICS 1) Brazil in figures 2) Infrastructure and Raw Material 3) Cast Metal in Brazil 4) Foreign Trade 5) Trends Brazil and Foundry Industry
Cast metal world production (ton) 2013 2012 1 º CHINA 44,500,000 42,500,000 2 º USA 12,250,000 12,824,960 3 º INDIA 9,810,000 9,344,400 4 º JAPAN 5,538,037 5,342,837 5 º GERMANY 5,186,727 5,214,114 6 º RUSSIA 4,100,000 4,300,000* 7 º BRAZIL 3,071,400 2,859,898 8 º KOREA 2,562,000 2,435,800 9 º ITALY 1,970,968 1,959,680 10 o FRANCE 1,748,166 1,800,156 Source: Modern Casting/Dec 2014 * 2011 data
The crisis of 2008-09 had a strong effect on our country Production 2006-15 Thousand ton 4.000 3.500 3.000 2.500 2.000 1.500 1.000 500 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Brazil 3.087 3.250 3.355 2.297 3.241 3.344 2.860 3.071 2.737 2.450 Source: ABIFA 2015 preview
quick analysis of cast metal production in Brazil Total production 2,737.2 th ton (2014) Non ferrous 217.5 th ton Source: ABIFA
South and Southeast Region in Brazil represent 95% of all production 61% 34%
Sales of casting are concentrated in automotive industry SIDERURGY 2% EXPORTS 15% OTHER 6% CAP GOODS 13% AUTOMOTIVE 58% INFRASTRUC 6% Source: ABIFA
Worldwide Vehicle Production (thousand units) 2013 1 º China 22,117 2 º USA 11,046 3 º Japan 9,630 4 º Germany 5,718 5 º South Korea 4,521 6 º India 3,881 7 º Brazil 3,712 8 º Mexico 3,052 9 º Thailand 2,457 10 o Canada 2,380 Source: ANFAVEA 5th automotive world market
4000 Brazil - vehicle production Thousand unit 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 (15,3)% (20,5)%) 500 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Brazil 2612 2980 3216 3183 3382 3416 3403 3713 3146 2500 Source: ANFAVEA - Brazil 2015 preview
Countries of Latin America (Argentina, Brazil and Mexico) have a great dependence of Automotive Industry PARTICIPATION IN PRODUCTION ARGENTINA 57% BRAZIL 58% MEXICO 75 80% Source: ABIFA, CIFRA, SMF
Shows a potential to be exploited to reach the developed countries (2014) INHABITANTS/ VEHICLE ARGENTINA 3.7 BRAZIL 5.4 MEXICO 3.6 INHABITANTS/ VEHICLE GERMANY 1.7 ITALY 1.6 SPAIN 1.9 FRANCE 1.7 USA 1.3 Source: ANFAVEA
MAIN TOPICS 1) Brazil in figures 2) Infrastructure and Raw Material 3) Cast Metal in Brazil 4) Foreign Trade 5) Trends Brazil and Foundry Industry
Evolution of foreign trade in Brazil 2500 unit: Million US$ (2005-15 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Exports 1095 1374 1354 1494 763 1185 1521 1362 1233 1216 1150 Imports 159 300 559 808 1926 1096 1260 2061 2250 1714 400 2015 preview Source: ABIFA
Brazil 55% of total exports going to EUA US$ - % Iron + Steel + Non Ferrous Source: ABIFA,
Brazil 27% of total imports come from ASIA US$ - % Iron + Steel + Non Ferrous Source: ABIFA,
MAIN TOPICS 1) Brazil in figures 2) Infrastructure and Raw Material 3) Current Situation 4) Cast Metal in Brazil 5) Trends Brazil and Foundry Industry
Necessary Investments in Foundry Industry in Brazil in the next years (2015 2019) From 2015 until 2019 the Foundry Sector is expected to invest 880 million dollars to increase the production of 400 thousand tons needed to meet the growth of sectors such as Automotive, Railway, Mining, Wind Generation and other.
Production and installed capacity needed to meet the expected demand in Brazil (unit: thousand ton)
THANK YOU! Brazilian Foundry Association ABIFA Av. Paulista, 1274 20 o andar 01310-925 São Paulo SP - Brazil Ph: (+55 11) 3549-3344 and Fac (+55 11) 3549-3355 Remo De Simone president presidencia@abifa.org.br www.abifa.org.br Sept/2015
Source: ABAL - Brazilian Aluminum Association ABIFA Brazilian Foundry Association ABRAFE Brazilian Ferroalloys Association ANEEL National Agency of Electricity (Brazil) ANFAVEA National Automobile Manufactures Association (Brazil) BACEN Central Bank of Brazil CIFRA Argentina s Chamber of Metalcaster FIRJAN Federation of Rio de Janeiro Industries IBGE Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics SINDIFER Producers of Pig Iron Trade Union (Brazil) SMF Mexican Society of Metalcasters