Climate and Transport: An Introduction Eric Zusman MRV Training Class November 26, 2013
Outline 1. Sustainable Low Carbon Transport 2. Climate Finance and Transport 3. MRVing Transport NAMAs
1. Sustainable Low Carbon Transport
Transport: a very important piece Source: Pacala and Socolow, 2005
A puzzle that has been difficult to solve Changes (%) in greenhouse gas emissions by source category in the EU, 1990 2007 Source: European Environment Agency, 2011
Government solutions often promote motorization
Many drivers are behind this trend
Much of Asia is growing out not up Source: Perera and Permani, 2012
Energy subsidies help lock in these trends
Co benefits Mitigate Greenhouse Gas License Plate Schemes Public Transport Upgrades Co benefits Economic Social Environmental
Economic Social Environmental Mitigate Greenhouse Gas License Plate Schemes Public Transport Upgrades Co benefits
Four Options Do nothing: business as usual Invest in roads and infrastructure Control transport demand (road pricing, license plate schemes) Improve public transport (buses, metros, and subways)
1.A 2.S. 3.I
Improve
Improve Standardized Comparison of International Fuel Economy and GHG Standar MILES PER GALLON (All countries converted to CAFE test 55 50 45 40 35 30 UNITED STATES EUROPE JAPAN AUSTRALIA CANADA CHINA CALIFORNIA S. KOREA Dotted line: Proposed or contested Solid lines: Enacted CHINA AUSTRALIA CANADA S. KOREA EUROPEAN UNION JAPAN CALIFORNIA + 16 STATES UNITED STATES 25 20 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 Source: Passenger Vehicle Greenhouse Gas and Fuel Economy Standards: A Global Update, International Council on Clean Transportation, 2007
Avoid Toyama: the first compact city in Japan Source: Visit Toyama (Toyama City)
Sticky Rice Ball Planning Hospital Home Leisure Shopping Station Home School Station Stick:Public transport system Rice dumplings:pedestrian areas around transport system Work Source: Visit Toyama (Toyama City)
In Asia: Potential to Shift Source: UITP
Key Messages Transport will have a big impact on climate change But transport is first and foremost about development There is a reason sustainability comes before low carbon This is the same reason we need to turn over the approach to co benefits ASI nicely summarizes key elements of a sustainable low carbon transport strategy Many parts of Asia are in a good position to introduce these elements There is a potential to get support from the international climate regime
2. Climate Finance and Transport
In 1994, would begin a series of COP meetings
What does a meeting in Warsaw have to do with transportation in your city?
The Kyoto Protocol (1997) Commits Annex I parties to targets and timetables Average 5% off 1990 levels by 2008-2012 Basket of six GHGs
The Kyoto Surprise (1997)
The CDM in Theory
CDM Barriers Low revenue relative to investment Investment often led by public sector Multiple small sources Transaction costs
Key messages The Kyoto protocol was developed out of the UNFCCC It employed a top down approach with targets and timetables for Annex 1 countries Though the CDM was more bottom up in orientation It did not fit well with the transport sector
3. MRVing Transport NAMAs
The Bali Action Plan 1(b)(ii): Nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs) Finance Capacity building Technology in a measurable, reportable and verifiable (MRV) manner
The Copenhagen Accord (2010 ) NAMAs 2010 2012 Immediate financing 30 USD billion Unilateral 2020 Green Climate Fund 100 USD billion per year M Supported Finance Capacity building R Credited Technology V
How can transport get access to a greater share of climate finance. Billion dollars 100 50 Green Climate Fund Voluntary pledge of 10 billion dollars between 2013 2015 Scaling up to $100 billion dollars by 2020. 2010 2012 2013 2015 2020
Example of a NAMA
Multilateral Bilateral Climate Funds UNFCCC Kyoto Protocol UN-agencies World Bank GEF CIFs The EU European Investment Bank African Development Bank Australia Brazil Germany Carbon Finance Unit AusAID BNDES BMU Guyana Multiple donors Japan JICA Norway NORAD UK DFID DECC US BFI USAID Development Finance Institutions GCF $$$$$ GEF Trust Fund GEF4(2006-2010) $$$ GEF5(2011-2014) $$$$ LDCF $ SCCF $ AF $ UN REDD $ CTF(2009-2012) $$$$ SCF (2009-2012) $$$$ PPCR $$ FIP $$ SREP $ FCPF $ PMR $ GCCA $ GEEREF $ CBFF $ Fund IFCI MAI FA ICI GRIF FSF ICFI ICF GCCI Sub-regional and national $42.7b Largest National Development Banks Sub-regional development banks; (Development Bank of Latin America); Smaller players, like the Mexican Nacional Financiera (NAFIN) Amount in 2011/2012 (USD million) 31.4 5.8 26.9 89.7 0.4 799.7 517 78.2 858 AF: Adaptation Fund CBFF: Congo Basin Forest Fund CIFs: Climate Investment Funds CTF: Clean Technology Fund FCPF: Forest Carbon Partnership Facility FIP: Forest Investment Program GCCA: Global Climate Change Alliance GCF: Green Climate Fund GEEREF: Global Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Fund GEF: Global Environment Facility LDCF: Least Developed Countries Fund PMR: Partnership for Market Readiness PPCR: Pilot Program on Climate Resilience SCCF: Special Climate Change Fund SCF: Strategic Climate Fund SREP: Scaling Up Renewable Energy Program UN REDD: United Nations Collective Program on Reducing Emissions from Deforestration and Forest Degradation Fund type General Mitigation Adaptation REDD+ Fund size <$500M $ $500M-$1B $$ $1B-$2B $$$ $2B-$10B $$$$ $10B- $100B $$$$$ BFI AusAID: Australian Agency for International Development BNDES: Brazilian Development Bank BMU: Federal Ministry for Environment, Natural Conservation and Nuclear Safety JICA: Japan International Cooperation Agency NORAD: Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation DFID: Department for International Development DECC: Department of Energy and Climate Change USAID: US Agency for International Development Fund IFCI: International Forest Carbon Initiative MAI: Mata Atlantica Initiative FA: Amazon Fund (Fundo Amazonia) ICI: International Climate Initiative GRIF: Guyana REDD+ Investment Fund Fund type FSF: Fast-Start Finance ICFI: International Climate and Forest Initiative General ICF: International Climate Fund GCCI: Global Climate Change Initiative REDD+ Bilateral Agence Francaise de Development and Proparco (AFD) KfW Entwicklungsbank and DEG (KfW) Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC) $3.9b $1.5b $2.4b $75.2b $11.3b Multilateral $21.2b The World Bank Group Regionally oriented agencies, like AfDB and ADB Entities without a banking basis, like the EU Government budgets $16b Carbon market revenues $2b Carbon taxes $7.3b General tax revenues NE $364b $14b $350b Adaptation Mitigation (including REDD+) Actually, many sources of climate finance; all will require some form of MRV Private sector Commercial institutions $36b Other intermediaries Profit-driven investment banks Venture capital funds Carbon brokers and funds Private equity funds Banks and insurance companies Infrastructure funds $2.4b Private sector actors Corporate actors Institutional investors Project developers Households $268b $230b Note: Figures are expressed in USD billions for the latest year available (2011 or 2012). Sources: CPI, 2012; Caravani et al, 2012; Lattanzio, 2013c
MRV is not new 1999 ASIF Transport NAMAS 1950 Detroit Area Transportation Study 1804 1866 Jules Dupuit 1980 Executive Order 12291 1936 Flood Control Act
Applications: the next big challenge 12,000,000 Number of Vehicles (Jakarta) 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 Motorcycle Bus Truck Passenger car 2,000,000 0 Metro Traffic Police Tax Revenue Office Source: Suhadi, 2010
Key messages The Bali Action Plan began to change the nature of the climate change regime It allowed countries to pledge their own actions or NAMAs Some of these will qualify for support from international institutions MRV will be a requirement for what could be increasingly diverse sources of finance