Integrated Analysis of Transportation Development and Air Quality Strategy in China Professor Kebin He Institute of Environmental Science & Engineering, Tsinghua University Harvard University, March 19, 2001
Outline Overview of urbanization Overview of motorization Air pollution from urban transportation Beijing Case Future Consideration 2
Outline Overview of urbanization Overview of motorization Air pollution from urban transportation Beijing Case Future Consideration 3
Overview of urbanization Increase of number for Chinese cities 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1990 1991 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997
Overview of urbanization Development of Chinese population and urbanization 130000 35 125000 120000 30 National population 115000 110000 105000 25 20 Urbanization rate(%) 100000 95000 National population Urbanization rate 15 90000 10 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 Year
Urbanization Trends in China 140 120 100 1994 1998 80 60 40 20 0 > 200 100-200 50-100 20-50 <20 Urban Population (10,000)
Outline Overview of urbanization Overview of motorization Air pollution from urban transportation Beijing Case Future Consideration 7
Overview of motorization 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 Vehicle Stocks in Thousand Passenger Vehicles Trucks Total Vehicles 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 8
Stock of civil autos by ownership, 1985~1997 1000 800 600 400 200 Private-owned auto stock Non-private auto stock 0 1985 1991 1993 1995 1997
Private-owned vehicle stock by purpose (1985~1997) 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1985 0 50 100 150 200 250 Unit: 10,000 Private truck stock Private passenger vehicle stock
Share of private-owned vehicle stock by purpose (1985~1997) 35 30 25 20 Unit:% share of private truck stock share of private passenger vehicle stock 15 10 5 0 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998
Overview of motorization Growth of total civil motor vehicle population in Beijing 图 1-2 北京市机动车保有量变化趋势 160 140 120 100 ( 万辆 ) 80 60 40 20 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 年代
Overview of motorization Growth of total civil motor vehicle population in Shanghai Vehicle Population, 1000 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Year Vehicles Motor Cycle Mopeds
Overview of motorization Growth of total civil motor vehicle population in Guangzhou 100 80 万辆 60 40 20 0 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 年代
Number of Motor Vehicles 4,500 4,000 Tokyo Total Tokyo Passenger cars Number of motor vehicles(thousans) 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 Tokyo Buses and Trucks Tokyo(ward area) Total Tokyo(ward area) Passenger cars Tokyo(ward area) Buses and Trucks Seoul Total Seoul Passenger cars Seoul Buses and Trucks Beijing Total Beijing Passenger cars and buses Beijing Trucks 500 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 15
Number of Passenger Cars 4,000 Number of motor vehicles(thousans) 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 Tokyo Passenger cars Seoul Passenger cars Beijing Passenger cars and buses 500 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 16
Number of Trucks and Buses 1,000 900 Tokyo Buses and Trucks Number of Trucks and Buses (thousans) 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 Seoul Buses and Trucks Beijing Trucks 100 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 17
Motorization (Vehicles per 1000 people) 600 557 Japan 500 Tokyo Tokyo Ward area Vehicles per 1000 people 400 300 200 Korea Seoul China Beijing 356 317 226 216 100 72 0 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 9 18
Road Provision per Registered Vehicle (length of paved road/vehicle) 50.0 Road length per registered vehicle(km/vehicle) 45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 Tokyo(ward area) Seoul Beijing 0.0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 19
Passenger Traffic by Public Transportation Mode in Tokyo Annual passenger traffic (1,000 passengeres) 10,000,000 9,000,000 8,000,000 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 Tokyo(ward area) Taxi Tokyo(ward area) Buses Tokyo(ward area) Subway Tokyo(ward area) Tram/Train 1,000,000 0 1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 20
Passenger Traffic by Public Transportation Mode in Seoul Annual passenger traffic (1,000 passengeres) 10,000,000 9,000,000 8,000,000 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 Seoul Taxi Seoul Buses Seoul Subway Seoul Tram/Train 1,000,000 0 1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 21
Passenger Traffic by Public Transportation Mode in Beijing 10,000,000 Annual passenger traffic (1,000 passengeres) 9,000,000 8,000,000 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 Beijing Taxi Beijing Buses Beijing Subway Beijing Tram/Train 1,000,000 0 1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 22
Outline Overview of urbanization Overview of motorization Air pollution from urban transportation Beijing Case Future Consideration 23
NOx Concentration for Different Scale Cities NOx 浓度 (mg/m 3 ) 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0 1994 1998 > 200 100-200 50-100 20-50 <20
Rates of NOx exceeding standard 超标率 (%) 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1994 1998 > 200 100-200 50-100 20-50 <20 城市人口 ( 万人 )
China: Urban NOx Concentration NOx Concentration in Chinese cities year No. Of cities Non-attainment cities number Non-attainment for Class II standard Non-attainment for Class III standard rate (%) number rate (%) number rate (%) 1995 88 32 36.4 3 3.4 0 0 1996 88 27 30.7 25 28.4 2 2.3 1997 94 32 34.1 29 30.9 3 3.2 1998 96 32 33.3 29 30.2 3 3.1 Nonattainment cities for Class III Beijing, Guangzhou, Lanzhou Beijing, Guangzhou Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai 26
Beijing: Air Pollutant Concentrations Air Quality in Beijing from1997-1999 (mg/m 3) year SO2 NOx CO TSP 1997 0.125 0.133 3.0 0.318 1998 0.120 0.152 3.3 0.378 1999 0.080 0.140 2.9 0.364 27
BEIJING: NOx Concentration In 1998 Monthly NOx concentration distribution in 1998 3 0. 600 NOx ( mg/ m ) 0. 500 0. 400 0. 300 0. 200 0. 100 0. 000 2# 3# 6# 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2# and 3# monitoring stations are near to the arteries, and 6# monitoring station is far away from the arteries. 28
BEIJING: O3 Concentration in 1997-1999 Ozone concentration in Beijing 3 O 3 Concentration in Beijing Number of nonattainment days Number of nonattainment hours Max. Hourly concentration (µg/m 3 ) 1997 71 434 346 1998 101 504 384 1999 119 777 29
Beijing: PM 2.5 Mass Concentration Levels in 1999-2000 Weekly variations 9/24-9/30 10/6-10/14 10/21-10/27 11/4-11/11 11/18-11/25 12/2-12/9 12/16-12/23 12/30/99-1/6/00 1/13-1/20 1/27-2/3 2/10-2/17 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2/24-3/2 3/9-3/16 3/23-3/30 4/6-4/13 4/20-4/27 5/4-5/11 5/18-5/25 6/1-6/8 6/15-6/22 6/29-7/6 7/13-7/20 7/27-8/3 8/10-8/17 8/24-8/31 9/7-9/14 9/21-9/28 Sampling Dates Chegongzhuang Tsinghua PM2.5 Concentrations (µg.m -3 ) Similar temporal variations at the two sites Strong weekly variations: max difference for two consecutive weeks is 2.5 times
Shanghai: NOx and SO2 Concentrations from 1990 to 1999 0.07 Concentration, mg/m3 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 NOx SO2
Shanghai: Pb and TSP Concentration 0.6 Concentration, mg/m3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 Pb TSP
Shanghai: CO Concentration 3.0 Concentration, mg/m3 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000
03/20~03/27 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 图 1 PM2.5 周平均浓度的变化曲线 Fig. 1 Weekly PM2.5 variations at two sampling sties Tongji Univ. 70 Hainan Rd. 34 05/17~05/24 06/14~06/21 07/12~07/19 08/09~08/16 09/06~09/13 10/04~10/11 11/02~11/09 11/30~12/07 12/28~01/03 01/24~01/31 02/21~02/28 Week 03/20~03/27 04/17~04/24 Conc. ( ug/m 3 )
Guangzhou: Air Quality in 1997-1999 Guangzhou: Air Quality from 1997-1999 (mg/m 3 ) year SO2 NOx CO TSP 1997 0.07 0.139 2.54 0.217 1998 0.061 0.124 2.42 0.202 1999 0.054 0.114 2.29 0.182
CO 图 1-8 三个城市 N O x 浓度变化 0.16 0.14 0.12 年日均浓度 (mg/m 3 ) 0.1 0.08 0.06 97 年 98 年 99 年 0.04 0.02 0 北京广州上海 A i r P o l l u t a n t C o n c e n t r a t i o n i n T h r e e c i t i e s 0.4 0.35 0.3 NOx 图 1-9 三个城市 TSP 浓度变化 年日均浓度 (mg/m 3 ) 0.25 0.2 0.15 97 年 98 年 99 年 0.1 0.05 0 北京广州上海 TSP 图 1-10 北京和广州 CO 浓度变化 3.5 3 2.5 年日均浓度 (mg/m 3 ) 2 1.5 1 98 年 99 年 0.5 0 北京 广州
Outline Overview of urbanization Overview of motorization Air pollution from urban transportation Beijing Case Future Consideration 37
Methodology: Model Description population Ave. speed registration mileage population Vehicle information Energy & traffic Cold/heat start Drive cycle I/M fuel Emission factor model Emission distribution Meteorlogical Diffusion model Transfer matrix Optimization model for control measure options Control targets Strategies and policy
Methodology: Grid system grid system is needed ( 364, 1.5km*1.5km grids ) In Beijing, the road system can be described briefly as a network, with ring roads (thick solid lines) and radial roads (fine red lines) as its arteries. 39
Calculation of Vehicle Emission Factors Modified Mobile5 model was used to calculate emission factors Modification items RVP Temperature Driving cycle conditions Speed I/M Other factors ( air conditioning used, overloaded and so on ) EF= FUN(CMFALUH)
MOBILE SOURCE CONTRIBUTION TO AIR POLLUTANT CONCENTRATIONS Hourly traffic flow variation 1.00 Traffic flow 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 hour 41
Three cases in Beijing Formulating mobile source control strategy from 1995 to 2010 Evaluating the effectiveness of air pollution control measures since 1998 Prediction of air quality in 2008 42
Case I: Mobile Source Emission Inventory (NOx, 1995, t / y) 43
Case I: MOBILE SOURCE CONTRIBUTION TO AIR POLLUTANT CONCENTRATIONS Spatial distribution of annual average concentrations in 1995 CO NOx 44
Case I: MOBILE SOURCE CONTRIBUTION TO AIR POLLUTANT CONCENTRATIONS Year Emissions,(t)) Pollution Share for Emission Pollution Share for Concentration (%) (%) Urban Area Downtown CO NOx 1995 年 107.5 76.8 76.5 86.3 1998 年 129.0 82.7 84.1 89.5 1995 年 9.38 40.2 68.4 72 1998 年 11.5 42.9 72.8 73.6
Case I: Scenarios for control option Mobile source control strategies (Scenario 2) -- For new vehicles EURO 1 EURO 2 EURO 3 EURO 4 Light-duty vehicles Ⅰ 1999.1.1 2003.1.1 2007.1 2010. Light-duty vehicles Ⅱ 2000.1.1 2003.1.1 2007.1 2010. High-duty 2000.1.1 2003.1.1 2008.1 2014 vehicles Motorcycles 2001.1.1 46
Case I: IMPACTS OF EMISSION CONTROL ON AIR QUALITY The reduction potential of different control strategies 10 thousand tons 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 CO 0 1 2 3 1995 1998 2002 2010 year 10 thousand tons 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1995 1998 2002 2010 year NOx 0 1 2 3 47
Case I: IMPACTS OF EMISSION CONTROL ON AIR QUALITY 2002 2010 CO concentration with control (ug/m3) 48
Case I: Government Action Beijing: emission standard for exhaust pollutants from light-duty vehicles Shanghai: emission standard for exhaust pollutants from light-duty vehicles Emission Standard for exhaust pollutants from light-duty vehicles (GWPB1-1999) Standard for hazardous contents in gasoline (GWPB001-1999) 49
Case II: Measures for mobile source in phase I Vehicle type vehicle no. NOx red. Ratio to popu. Scrap m-bus 14000 8902 6.3% Scrap other 24000 4648 3.3% Temp. stop 3782 732 0.5% return 544/day 211 0.1% retrofit 56416 4696 3.3% 50
Case II: Measures for mobile source in phase II Vehicle type vehicle no. NOx red. Ratio to popu. Scrap m-bus 6762 4300 3.05% Scrap other 13238 2564 1.82% Temp. stop 17000 3292 2.33% return 370 143 0.10% retrofit 312500 15130 10.73% PCV 62000 8405 5.96% 51
Case II: Measures for mobile source in phase III Vehicle type vehicle no. NOx red. Ratio to popu. Temp. stop 430 / week 1082.582 0.77% return 94 / day 36.41 0.03% retrofit 12000 998.78 0.71% 52
Case II: Measures for mobile source in phase IV Attainment rate for vehicle emission control reached 90%, which results in 8922.4 ton NOx reduction Measures for stationary sources is considered in the calculation 53
Effectiveness from four phases control measures emission reduction (baseline:1998 ) SO 2 NOx transport coal PM10 Phase 1 1.31% 4.52% 0.27% 0.4% Phase 2 11.02% 9.68% 2.86% 3.9% Phase 3 23.39% 12.84% 4.77% 8.8% Phase 4 27.63% 15.53% 6.84% 11.4% 54
Effectiveness from four phases control measures Air concentration reduction (model calculation) (baseline: 1998) After control Reduction rate SO 2 (μg/m 3 ) NOx (μg/m 3 ) PM10 (μg/m 3 ) 76.4 123.6 174.2 35.8% 16.5% 5.3% 55
Effectiveness from four phases control measures 四期措施后相对于 1998 年的削减率 削减率,% 45.00% 40.00% 35.00% 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% 浓度监测值浓度计算值排放量 SO2 NOx PM10 56
Case III: Prediction of PM10 Concentration in Beijing in 2008 Mobile source control strategies (Scenario 2) -- For new vehicles EURO 1 EURO 2 EURO 3 EURO 4 Light-duty vehicles Ⅰ 1999.1.1 2003.1.1 2007.1 2010. Light-duty vehicles Ⅱ 2000.1.1 2003.1.1 2007.1 2010. High-duty 2000.1.1 2003.1.1 2008.1 2014 vehicles Motorcycles 2001.1.1 57
Case III: Prediction of NOx Concentration in Beijing in 2008 Mobile source control strategies (Scenario 2) -- For new vehicles EURO 1 EURO 2 EURO 3 EURO 4 Light-duty vehicles Ⅰ 1999.1.1 2003.1.1 2007.1 2010. Light-duty vehicles Ⅱ 2000.1.1 2003.1.1 2007.1 2010. High-duty 2000.1.1 2003.1.1 2008.1 2014 vehicles Motorcycles 2001.1.1 58
Outline Overview of urbanization Overview of motorization Air pollution from urban transportation Beijing Case Future Consideration 59
Future plan for Beijing s Railroad 60
Clean transportation for Olympics Subway: 1.3 million person-trip / day in 1999 2.5 million person-trip / day in 2007 Mass Transit: 9 million person-trip / day in 1999 18 million person-trip / day in 2007 34,000 clean fuel vehicle, 1300 pure CNG 8 million bicycles 61
Future Consideration ELEMENTS OF A COMPREHENSIVE VEHICLE POLLUTION CONTROL STRATEGY CLEAN VEHICLE TECHNOLOGY APPROPRIATE MAINTENANCE TRANSPORTATION & LAND USE PLANNING CLEAN FUELS 62
THANK YOU! 63