January 213
Contents Introduction Global energy trends Outlook 23: Fuel by fuel Implications Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
Introduction Global energy trends Outlook 23: Fuel by fuel Implications Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
Population, income and energy growth Billion 8 6 Population OECD Non-OECD 1 75 GDP Trillion $211 PPP OECD Non-OECD Billion toe 12 9 Primary energy OECD non-oecd 4 5 6 2 25 3 199 21 23 199 21 23 199 21 23 Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
Industrialisation drives energy growth Billion toe 18 15 12 9 6 3 By region Non-OECD OECD 199 21 23 Energy Outlook 23 OECD Billion toe 18 15 12 9 6 By primary use Power generation Industry 3 Other Transport 199 21 23 Billion toe 18 15 12 9 6 By fuel Coal Coal Gas Gas 3 Oil Oil 199 21 23 *Includes biofuels Renew.* Hydro Nuclear BP 213
The power sector leads primary energy growth Growth by sector and region, 211-23 Billion toe 3 2 1-1 Transport Industry Other Final energy use Energy Outlook 23 Power RoW Middle East China & India OECD Inputs to power Billion toe 3 2 1-1 Transport Growth by sector and fuel, 211-23 Industry Other Final energy use Power Hydro Nuclear Renew. Electricity Gas Biofuels Oil Coal Inputs to power BP 213
Emerging economies dominate energy production Billion toe 18 15 12 9 Non-OECD 6 Non-OECD 3 OECD OECD 199 2 21 22 23 Energy Outlook 23 Billion toe 18 15 12 9 6 3 199 2 21 22 23 FSU S&C America N. America Middle East Europe Asia Pacific Africa BP 213
Fuel shares and energy prices Shares of world primary energy $211/boe Energy prices 5% Oil 4% Coal 3% 2% Gas 1% Hydro % Nuclear Renewables* 1965 198 1995 21 225 *Includes biofuels Energy Outlook 23 12 1 8 Oil - Brent Gas - basket Coal - basket 6 4 2 1965 198 1995 21 BP 213
Energy efficiency improvements Energy intensity by region Toe per thousand $211 GDP (PPP).5 US.4 China.3.2.1 World EU*. 187 189 191 193 195 197 199 21 23 *Euro4 (France, Italy, Germany, UK) pre-197 Energy and GDP Billion toe Trillion $211 (PPP) 5 2 4 15 3 1 2 GDP (RHS) 1 5 Energy 197 199 21 23 Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
Energy supply growth Demand Supply Billion toe 17 16 15 23 level Renew.* Hydro Nuclear 14 Other 13 12 *Includes biofuels Tight Other Shale 211 Oil Natural gas Coal 211 OECD Non- OECD Nonfossil Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
Shale gas and tight oil: resources and production Billion toe 6 4 2 Current resources Production in 23 Gas Oil Billion toe.9.6.3. Asia Pacific N. America S. & C. America Africa Europe & Eurasia Middle East Asia Pacific N. America S. & C. America Africa Europe & Eurasia Middle East Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
US tight oil and shale gas: infrastructure requirements Onshore oil & gas rigs 211 Thousands 2. 1.5 1..5. Thousands 15 12 9 6 3 Oil wells drilled and output 212* 211 21 Output (RHS) Mb/d 5 4 3 2 1 Energy Outlook 23 Bakken Canada Colombia *Annualised from 1Q-3Q data BP 213
Introduction Global energy trends Outlook 23: Fuel by fuel Implications Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
High oil prices are reducing oil s share of primary energy 6% 4% 2% Oil share of energy and GDP % of energy Oil as % of primary energy Oil cost as % of GDP (RHS) % of GDP 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% 1% 75% 5% 25% Oil share in sector Power Other Industry Transport % % 1965 1978 1991 24 217 23 Energy Outlook 23 % 1965 1978 1991 24 217 23 BP 213
Global transport demand Billion toe Transport demand by fuel Fuel economy of new cars Litres per 1 km 3 2 1 199 21 23 Electricity Gas Coal Biofuels Oil - road Oil - non-road 12 9 6 3 EU US light vehicles China 1995 25 215 225 Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
Global supply growth and tight oil Mb/d 15 9 75 6 45 3 15 Liquids supply by type OPEC share (RHS) 45% 3% 199 2 21 22 23 OPEC NGLs OPEC crude Biofuels Oil sands Tight oil Other non-opec Mb/d 1 8 6 4 2 China Russia S. America N. America NGLs Tight oil output % of total (RHS) 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % 2 21 22 23 Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
Role of the Americas Supply growth by decade Americas surpass Middle East Mb/d 18 15 12 Americas FSU Africa Europe Middle East Asia Pacific Mb/d 35 3 Americas Middle East 9 6 25 3-3 199-2-1 21-2 22-3 2 15 199 2 21 22 23 Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
Global liquids balance Demand Supply Mb/d 15 Other 1 S&C Am. Mid East India 95 9 NGLs Tight oil Biofuels Oil sands China 85 NGLs Iraq OPEC-11 23 level 8 211 OECD declines Energy Outlook 23 NonOECD growth 211 NonOPEC declines NonOPEC growth OPEC growth BP 213
Unconventional oil and the call on OPEC Unconventionals share of net global supply growth Mb/d Call on OPEC & spare capacity Mb/d 1% 75% Biofuels Oil sands Tight oil 9 6 Spare capacity Call on OPEC (RHS) 36 33 5% 25% 3 3 % 2-1 21-2 22-3 27 2 21 22 23 Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
Shale gas and global supply growth Gas production by type and region Bcf/d Bcf/d Shale gas production 5 4 3 2 1 Non-OECD other Non-OECD shale OECD shale OECD other 8 6 4 2 RoW China Europe & Eurasia Canada & Mexico US % of total (RHS) 18% 12% 6% 199 2 21 22 23 Energy Outlook 23 % 199 2 21 22 23 BP 213
Shale gas: regional growth Sources of gas supply, by region Bcf/d N. America Bcf/d EU Bcf/d China 12 12 12 Net pipeline imports 1 8 6 1 8 6 1 8 6 Net LNG imports Shale gas production Other domestic production 4 4 4 2 2 2-2 199 21 23-2 199 21 23-2 199 21 23 Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
Gas trade and market integration LNG exports LNG diversification Bcf/d 8 2% 1 Suppliers per importer 6 4 % of total consumption (RHS) 15% 1% 8 6 4 Customers per exporter 2 LNG 5% 2 % 199 2 21 22 23 Energy Outlook 23 1991 1996 21 26 211 BP 213
Global gas balance Demand Supply Bcf/d 5 45 4 Other non-oecd China 23 level OECD 35 3 Other OECD N. America Middle East Non-OECD 25 211 OECD Non-OECD 211 Non-shale Shale Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
Coal consumption Billion toe 5 Coal demand by region Coal demand by sector Billion toe 5 Oil Other 4 3 China China 4 3 Industry China China China 2 India India India Other Other Non-OECD non-oecd 1 OECD OECD OECD 199 2 21 22 23 Energy Outlook 23 2 India India 1 Power Power OECD OECD 199 2 21 22 23 BP 213
Non-fossil fuels OECD Billion toe 2. Renewables Biofuels 1.5 Hydro Nuclear 1..5 Billion toe 2. 1.5 1..5 Non-OECD Renewables in power. 199 2 21 22 23 Energy Outlook 23 Biofuels. 199 2 21 22 23 BP 213
Growth of renewables in power 2% 15% 1% Share of power generation Nuclear 197-2 Non-OECD 5% Renewables 2-23 OECD % 2 21 22 23 197 198 199 2 Energy Outlook 23 Growth 211-3, and share of power % share % p.a. 25% Growth (RHS) 15% 2% Share 211 Share 23 12% 15% 1% 5% % OECD Europe Renewable power Other OECD Non-OECD 9% 6% 3% % BP 213
Power generation and electricity use Electricity share of final consumption Shares of power output 5% 4% Other 1% 8% Oil Nuclear 3% 2% Industry 6% 4% Hydro Gas 1% Transport % 199 21 23 Energy Outlook 23 2% Coal % Renew. 197 199 21 23 BP 213
Introduction Global energy trends Outlook 23: Fuel by fuel Implications Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
Oil and gas: reserves and production N. America Europe FSU Key: % share of global total 5% % 211 reserves 23 output Net importers 211 Net exporters 211 S. & C. America Africa Middle East Asia Pacific Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
Tight oil and shale gas uncertainties Range of tight oil forecasts (excludes NGLs) Mb/d 1 8 6 4 2 Range BP 75% 5% 25% Share of global supply growth Shale gas Tight oil Range of shale gas forecasts Bcf/d 12 Range BP 1 8 6 4 2 21 22 23 % 2-1 21-2 22-3 21 22 23 Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
Energy imbalances: import profiles Mtoe 3-3 -6-9 -1,2 199 Energy imbalances China EU US Oil Gas Coal 21 23 199 21 23 199 21 23 Energy imbalances to GDP ratio Toe per $Mln GDP PPP 6 4 2 China US EU -2-4 -6-8 199 2 21 22 23 Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
Energy imbalances: export profiles Energy imbalances Saudi Arabia Africa Russia Mtoe 8 6 4 Oil Gas Coal Energy imbalances to GDP ratio Toe per $Mln GDP PPP 12 Saudi Arabia 1 Russia 8 Africa 6 2 4 199 21 23 199 21 23 199 21 23 2 199 2 21 22 23 Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
Energy and carbon emissions CO 2 emissions and primary energy Billion tonnes CO 2 5 4 3 2 1 Emissions from energy use Primary energy (RHS) Billion toe 197 199 21 23 18 15 12 9 6 3 % p.a. 8% 6% 4% 2% Gas % Oil -2% Growth of CO 2 emissions 197-199 199-21 21-23 China EU US Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
Conclusion % p.a. 4% Economic growth needs energy 3% 2% Income per capita Competition and innovation are the key to meeting this need 1% % Popul ation Economic growth Efficiency gains New supply energy efficiency new supplies Energy security and climate change remain challenges Energy Outlook 23 BP 213
January 213
Data sources Baker Hughes, Houston, Texas BP p.l.c., BP Statistical Review of World Energy, London, United Kingdom, June 212 BP p.l.c., BP Energy Outlook 23, London, United Kingdom, January 212 Center for International Comparisons of Production, Income and Prices at the University of Pennsylvania, Heston, A., Summers, R., Aten, B., Penn World Table Version 7.1, Nov 212. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook, Washington, D.C., United States, 212 GIIGNL, Paris, France International Council for Clean Transportation, Global passenger vehicle standards update. August 212 International Energy Agency, CO 2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion, Paris, France, 212 International Energy Agency, Energy Balances of Non-OECD Countries, Paris, France, 212 International Energy Agency, Energy Balances of OECD Countries, Paris, France, 212 International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 212, Paris, France, 212 Oxford Economics Ltd, Oxford, UK PIRA Energy Group, New York, NY, United States Rühl C., Appleby P., Fennema J., Naumov A., Schaffer ME. (212). Economic development and the demand for energy: a historical perspective on the next 2 years. Energy Policy, vol 5, pp. 19-116. Smith Bits S.T.A.T.S. UN Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 21 Revision, New York, United States, 211 US Environmental Protection Agency, Light-Duty Automotive Technology, Carbon Dioxide Emissions, and Fuel Economy Trends: 1975 Through 211. March 212 World Bank, World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), November 212 Plus various official sources Energy Outlook 23 BP 213