Take-Home Message Slide 1 Remarkable increases in streamflow of the James and Big Sioux Rivers when compared to broader USA In other watersheds, high flows have been associated with increases in nutrient and sediment loading: Mississippi River, Maumee River Do not drink advisory due to microcystin Summer, 2014 Toledo Lake Erie http://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov
Comparison of trends in a National context Slide 2 2,084 streamgages with continuous observational records during 1960-2011 were evaluated Used Kendall tau nonparametric test at p = 0.10 to determine trends
National context (cont.) Slide 3 103 in Canada 1,981 in US 507 upward 276 downward 1,301 no Trend
Percent Change in Discharge by Drainage Area Slide 4 Sheyenne River (purple) James River at Scotland (green) Red River at Fargo (red) Big Sioux River at Akron (yellow) Drainage area in square miles
Potential factors Slide 5 Waubay Lake Higher groundwater levels in glacial aquifers may account for increased streamflow
Potential factors (cont.) Slide 6 200 Annual streamflow (m3/s) 160 120 80 40 James River near Scotland 0 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Water year 10-year moving average for Q and precipitation
Potential factors (cont.) Slide 7 200 700 Annual streamflow (m3/s) 160 120 80 40 Annual precipitation James River near Scotland 650 600 550 500 450 Annual precipitation (mm) 0 400 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Water year 10-year moving average for Q and precipitation
Potential factors (cont.) Slide 8 Annual streamflow (m3/s) 200 160 120 80 40 Annual precipitation James River near Scotland Waubay Lake Elevation 700 / 552 650 / 550 600 / 548 550 / 546 500 / 544 450 / 542 Annual precipitation (mm) / Lake elevation (m) 0 400 / 540 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Water year 10-year moving average for Q and precipitation
Potential factors (cont.) Slide 9 Hoogestaat and Stamm, 2015, in press Climate and Streamflow Characteristics for Selected Streamgages in Eastern South Dakota, Water Years 1945 2013
Take-Home Message Slide 10 Remarkable increases in streamflow of the James and Big Sioux Rivers when compared to broader USA In other watersheds, high flows have been associated with increases in nutrient and sediment loading: Mississippi River, Maumee River Do not drink advisory due to microcystin Summer, 2014 Toledo Lake Erie http://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov
Potential factors (cont.) Slide 11
Slide 12 Long-term Trends in Mean Annual Streamflow in the James and Big Sioux Rivers Presented by: Greg Delzer USGS SD Water Science Center Parker Norton Mark Anderson John Stamm
Potential factors (cont.) Slide 13 Hoogestaat and Stamm, 2015, in press Climate and Streamflow Characteristics for SelectedStreamgages in Eastern South Dakota, Water Years 1945 2013
Potential factors (cont.) Slide 14
Potential factors (cont.) Slide 15 Cretaceous (commonly shale) Extent of glacial deposits
Potential factors (cont.) Slide 16 Sites with at least 100 percent increase in annual streamflow Higher groundwater levels in glacial aquifers underlain by confining layer may play a role in increased flow in the Eastern Dakotas
Slide 17 Topics for Today s Discussion Streamflow trends in the Missouri River Basin Comparison of trends in a National context Potential factors Conclusions
Slide 18 Topics for Today s Discussion Streamflow trends in the Missouri River Basin Comparison of trends in a National context Potential factors Conclusions
Slide 19
Streamflow trends in the Missouri River Basin Slide 20 227 streamgages with continuous observational records during 1960-2011 were evaluated Used Kendall tau nonparametric test at p = 0.10 to determine trends
Streamflow trends in the Missouri River Basin (cont.) Slide 21 Coming back to this
Streamflow trends in the Missouri River Basin (cont.) James R. near Scotland Slide 22 Big Sioux R. near Brookings Big Sioux R. near Dell Rapids Big Sioux R. at Akron
Streamflow trends in the Missouri River Basin (cont.) Slide 23 James River near Scotland, 1960-2012 Mean Annual Discharge James River near Scotland streamgage site 2003-2012 average 1960-1969 average 1960-2012 average
Streamflow trends in the Missouri River Basin (cont.) Slide 24 James River near Scotland, 1929-2011
Streamflow trends in the Missouri River Basin (cont.) Slide 25 Big Sioux River at Akron, 1960-2012 Mean Annual Discharge Big Sioux River at Akron streamgage site 2003-2012 average 1960-1969 average 1960-2012 average
Streamflow trends in the Missouri River Basin (cont.) Slide 26 Big Sioux River at Akron, 1929-2011
Streamflow trends in the Missouri River Basin (cont.) Slide 27 120,000 Big Sioux River at Akron, 1929-2014 100,000 108,000 CFS in June, 20 Peak streamflow, in cubic feet per second 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Year
Slide 28 Topics (cont.) Streamflow trends in the Missouri River Basin Comparison of trends in a National context Potential factors Conclusions
National context (cont.) Slide 29 Connecticut River at Montague City, MA Allegheny River at Kittaning, PA Susquehana River at Danville, PA 2003-2012 average 1960-1969 average 1960-2012 average
National context (cont.) Red River of the North at Fargo, ND James River at Scotland, SD Slide 30 Big Sioux River at Akron, IA 2003-2012 average 1960-1969 average 1960-2012 average
Increase in Annual Volume of Runoff from 1960-69 to 2003-2012 Slide 31 Selected Northeastern Stations Acre-feet
Increase in Annual Volume of Runoff from 1960-69 to 2003-2012 Selected Local Stations Slide 32 Acre-feet
National context (cont.) Slide 33 103 in Canada 1,981 in US 507 upward 276 downward 1,301 no Trend
Slide 34 Topics (cont.) Streamflow trends in the Missouri River Basin Comparison of trends in a National context Potential factors Conclusions
Potential factors (cont.) Slide 35 Downward trends in headwaters and upward trends in eastern parts of Missouri River Basin Coming back to this
Potential factors (cont.) Slide 36 Groundwater withdrawal can be primary factor in streamflow depletion
Potential factors (cont.) Slide 37 Precipitation is a contributing factor in ESD especially in the fall
Potential factors (cont.) Slide 38 Annual precipitation anomalies 2003-2012 compared to long-term average a forcing factor
SON DJF Slide 39 MAM JJA
SON DJF Slide 40 MAM JJA
SON DJF Slide 41 MAM JJA
Potential factors (cont.) Slide 42 Mean annual minimum temperature trends Minimum temperature increases have been observed in ESD and much of the West. Thus, T may affect snowpack and runoff, particularly in the western MRB.
Potential factors (cont.) Slide 43 Mean annual maximum temperature trends Maximum temperature hasn t changed much in ESD. Some potential indication of increased moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.
Conclusions Slide 44 Remarkable increases in streamflow of the James and Big Sioux Rivers when compared to broader USA Downward trends in headwaters and upward trends in eastern parts of Missouri River Basin Groundwater withdrawal can be primary factor in streamflow depletion Precipitation is a contributing factor in ESD especially in the fall Higher groundwater levels in glacial aquifers underlain by confining layer may play a role in increased flow in the Eastern Dakotas
Further research Land use change More row crops Retirement of CRP Drainage tile, More cultivated crops, Changes in atmospheric moisture delivery to the continent Slide 45 Preliminary Information Subject to Revision. Not for Citation or Distribution
Questions Slide 46 Contact: gcdelzer@usgs.gov; (605) 394-3230