Energy efficiency: the first fuel Savings from efficiency 60% of TFC in Mtoe TFC and savings within IEA countries (

Energy Efficiency Today: IEA s 2015 Market Report IEEJ, Tokyo, October 6, 2015 Philippe Benoit, Head, Energy Efficiency and Environment Division International Energy Agency

Energy efficiency: the first fuel Savings from efficiency 60% of TFC in 2014 4 000 3 500 3 000 Mtoe 2 500 2 000 TFC and savings within IEA countries (IEA-11*) from EE investments since 1973 Hypothetical energy use had there been no energy efficiency improvements Energy efficiency savings Oil Gas 1 500 1 000 500 Total Final Consumption Coal Electricity 0 *IEA-11: Australia, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Sweden, United Kingdom, United States

Energy efficiency investment: bigger than you might think 400 Investments in various fuels USD Billion 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 310 270 290 950 0 Energy efficiency* Renewable power** Fossil fired power*** Upstream oil, gas and coal**** * IEA (2014), Energy Efficiency Market Report, Paris: OECD/IEA. ** IEA (2015), Renewable Energy Market Report, Paris: OECD/IEA. *** Frankfurt School-UNEP Center (2015), Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment, Frankfurt: Frankfurt School of Management, UNEP and Bloomberg New Energy Finance. **** IEA (2014), World Energy Investment Outlook, Paris: OECD/IEA.

2015, All Rights Reserved. Energy intensity in OECD countries improved in 2014 Energy intensity in OECD countries declined by 2.3% in 2014 Annual change in energy intensity 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% -1.5% -2.0% -2.5% -3.0% -3.5% Percentage change in energy consumption per unit of GDP (2005 USD PPP) SE4All target OECD World -4.0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 Within range of the 2.6% per annum SE4ALL target in 2014

Energy efficiency is flattening energy consumption Total final consumption peaked in 2004 in IEA countries 140% 130% Decomposition of Total Final Consumption in IEA countries 1, 1990-2014 Activity effect 120% TFC 110% 100% 90% 80% Structur e effect Efficienc y effect 70% 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Energy efficiency is responsible for two thirds of the shift in demand 1 Decomposition for Australia, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States.

Rights Avoided consumption topped 22 EJ IEEJ:October 2015, All Reserved. (520 Mtoe) in 2014 Avoided consumption generated by energy efficiency increased by 10% in 2014 24 20 Avoided TFC in IEA countries from energy efficiency investments made since 1990 10% EJ 16 12 8 4 Avoided consum ption 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 IEA countries avoided more consumption in 2014 than the TFC of Japan and Korea combined

Rights IEA consumers are saving hundreds IEEJ:October 2015, All Reserved. of billions of dollars each year IEA countries saved USD 550 billion in 2014 as a result of energy efficiency investments since 1990 600 Avoided expenditure in IEA countries from energy efficiency investments made since 1990 500 USD billion (2014) 400 300 200 100 Cumulative savings = USD 5.7 trillion 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Annual savings are greater than the EU s fuel import bill

Supply vs virtual supply : Energy efficiency s contribution TFC in 2014 in IEA countries with and without avoided consumption from efficiency investments since 1990 Other 8 EJ Electricity 32 EJ Coal 5 EJ Other 8 EJ Electricity 32 EJ Avoided consumption 22 EJ Coal 5 EJ Natural gas 30 EJ Oil 67 EJ Natural gas 30 EJ Oil 67 EJ Reported TFC (140 EJ) EE-adjusted TFC (162 EJ) Energy efficiency s contribution to meeting energy service demand is invisible in traditional charts

Rights From avoided end-use consumption IEEJ:October 2015, All Reserved. to primary energy savings In 2014, avoided total primary energy supply generated by energy efficiency was 32 EJ (765 Mtoe) EJ 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Avoided TFC and TPES in 2014 in IEA countries from efficiency investments made since 1990 Avoided TFC Avoided TPES (electricity) Avoided TPES Electricity Nuclear Renewable Natural gas Coal Oil Heat

2015, All Rights Reserved. Efficiency s domestic production substitutes for fuel imports In 2014, IEA countries avoided primary energy imports totalling 190 Mtoe, saving USD 80 billion in energy import bills and improving trade balances (Mtoe) 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Avoided imports in 2014, as a result of energy efficiency investments in IEA countries since 1990 35 30 25 5 0 Germany Japan UK France US Domestically produced, efficiency supports energy security 20 15 10 USD billion (2014) Natural Gas Oil Coal Import bill (rightaxis)

2015, All Rights Energy efficiency investments since 1990 have helped to reduce IEA country emissions to below 1996 levels Without energy efficiency investments, estimated IEA member country emissions would have been 870 Mt CO 2 higher in 2014 (GtCO2) 13.0 12.0 Reserved. A clean energy source, efficiency reduces emissions IEA emissions from fossil fuel combustion and emissions savings from energy efficiency investments since 1990 Cumulative savings = 10.2 GtCO 2 Emissions savings 11.0 10.0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Energy efficiency has helped to make the 2 degrees target more achievable by lowering emissions to date Emissions

Energy Efficiency in Buildings: Nearly a USD 100 billion market Energy Efficiency investment in buildings* estimated at USD 90 billion with 2/3 in the US, China and Germany In the US, and elsewhere, building efficiency investments are growing faster than total buildings investments USD billions 100 Buildings efficiency investments, 2014 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2014 US China Germany Other Current trends point to USD 120 billion by 2020 But investment projections fall far short of estimated annual USD 215 billion needed to achieve the 2-Degree Scenario *Includes insulation, HVAC systems, etc. but excludes appliances

Energy Efficiency: flattening electricity consumption in IEA countries Electricity consumption in IEA countries declined by 2% since 2010; without efficiency, electricity consumption would still be growing Energy efficiency has enabled businesses and households to meet their energy service demands with 2 200 fewer TWh of generation Electricity consumption in IEA member countries and energy efficiency savings (from investments since 1990) 5.0% 4.0% Electricity consumption growth in IEA 2 500 Electricity savings from efficiency CAGR 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% TWh 2 000 1 500 1 000 500 0 Low growth is pushing various energy utilities to shift from traditional generation to sale of energy efficiency services Energy efficiency is facilitating the achievement of renewables targets by decreasing the amount of additional GWh required

2015, All Rights Reserved. Maintaining momentum in a low Strong policy drivers to insulate EE investments: oil price environment The EU Energy Efficiency Directive, the US Clean Power Plan INDCs submitted to the UNFCCC should all drive investment Consumption subsidies have been cut in various jurisdictions dampening drop in consumer prices Uneven short-term impacts on demand 2008 Q1 = 1 Indices of new US LDV fuel economy performance, CAFE standard and unleaded gasoline prices 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Continued low oil prices could ultimately weaken support Measured fleet fuel efficiency Gasoline price CAFE standard

Market Profiles highlight the diversity of energy efficiency markets Theme Region Findings Energy exporters Russia Saudi Arabia Energy exporters increasingly looking to efficiency to boost export volumes Sub-national government Latin America Tokyo Seoul Paris Massachusetts Mexico Brazil Cities and sub-national governments major enablers of energy efficiency markets Eager to capitalize on multiple benefits of energy efficiency Energy efficiency an important supporter of various economic and social development objectives IEA Member United Kingdom Using efficiency to adjust to net-energy importer status

2015, All Rights Reserved. In Saudi Arabia, energy efficiency is helping to increase export revenues Domestic energy consumption has nearly doubled since 2000 reducing share of energy production going to exports Saudi Arabia has implemented efficiency standards on key sources of domestic energy demand including vehicles and air conditioners : 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Saudi Arabia - Domestic energy consumption as share of total production: 2000-2013 2000 2013 Domestic energy consumptio n as share of production Air conditioner standards alone are targeted to improve efficiency by 35%: this would save 47 million barrels of oil, which could increase export revenues by around USD 2.4 billion

Tokyo: an energy efficiency star Tokyo addressing broad range of sectors (transport, buildings) with broad range of instruments (regulations, cap&trade) Cap & Trade has enabled targeted commercial buildings to reduce energy consumption by 7% since 2010 Additional measures targeting residential buildings have helped decrease energy intensity by 7% over the 2005-2013 period Markets are responding: mixed housing and transport development creating systemic efficiency improvements High-density, transit connected housing developments improving building efficiency and using low energy transit modes Tokyo s rail system added 4.9 billion pkm between 2004-09 while total transport energy use down 35% between 2002 and 2012 http://www.japan-guide.com/blog/schauwecker/g/121009_outside_04.jpg

Seoul: Using efficiency to Seoul has adopted One-Less Nuclear Plant plan to reduce energy consumption equivalent of one nuclear plant (2 Mtoe) reduce generation needs http://www.pennenergy.com/articles/pe/2013/10/ https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/ Plan has retrofit 2 267 buildings enabled market with low interest financing of up to USD 2 million per project Seoul s lighting plan to go 100% LED replacing 2.2 million security and street lights

Thank you Available as of Oct 8 th to download for free at: http://www.iea.org/bookshop/709-energy_efficiency_market_report_2015 Contact :report@tky.ieej.or.jp