Renewable Energy in Brazil 2050 Junta Joven 24 September 2014, Zürich Dr. Peter de Haan, Ernst Basler+Partner, head of climate+energy efficiency group; Lecturer «Energy and Mobility», ETH Zurich
1. Brazil s energy system where is it heading? 2. 100% renewable energy in Brazil, 2050 is it feasible? The EKOS Brasil Study 3. If it were to happen would Europe notice? Junta Joven Ernst Basler+Partner, 24 Sep 2014 2
Brazil s energy system (1) world champion Electricity now almost universal across the country 45% of primary energy demand = renewable energy Brazil one of least carbon-intensive economies in the world Junta Joven Ernst Basler+Partner, 24 Sep 2014 3
Share of renewables in total primary energy demand in selected regions, 2011 Junta Joven Ernst Basler+Partner, 24 Sep 2014 4
Brazil s energy system (2) fossil growth Total primary energy demand: doubled since 1990 Strong economic growth, emergence of a new middle class Strong growth in electricity and transport fuels Junta Joven Ernst Basler+Partner, 24 Sep 2014 5
Brazil final energy consumption by fuel, 2011 Junta Joven Ernst Basler+Partner, 24 Sep 2014 6
Brazil s energy system (3) it s a lot about oil Brazil s oil output: Output from mature fields declining Production levelled off at 2 mio. barrels/day since 2010 Junta Joven Ernst Basler+Partner, 24 Sep 2014 7
Pre-salt reservoirs it s expensive, it s difficult Production from pre-salt fields : Started, but slow Can Brazil re-attain self-sufficiency in oil? Brazil to become a major oil exporter? Junta Joven Ernst Basler+Partner, 24 Sep 2014 8
Hydro flexibility as the key Large hydro reservoirs give significant degree of flexibility Co-ordination of output between hydrological basins, and with generation from other renewable and thermal sources Dual role of hydropower: 1. Renewable source 2. Enabler of other renewables (seasonal variations from bioenergy co-generation, and intra-day fluctuations) Junta Joven Ernst Basler+Partner, 24 Sep 2014 9
1. Brazil s energy system where is it heading? 2. 100% renewable energy in Brazil, 2050 is it feasible? The EKOS Brasil Study 3. If it were to happen would Europe notice? Junta Joven Ernst Basler+Partner, 24 Sep 2014 10
Instituto Ekos Brasil www.ekosbrasil.org Fotos: Araquém Alcântara
Fotos: Araquém Alcântara
Current energy supply 2010 Energy production 2010 2012 energy demand: 2.950 TWh Source: Ministério de Minas e Energia MME, 2011 / 2013
How will Brazil develop?? Brazil? Forecast total energy demand up to 2050 based on GDP Structural economic changes ahead > no extrapolation! Assume energy intensity curve
How will Brazil develop? Brazil 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 GDP (2010 USD, PPP) 2190 3202 4424 6120 7668 Energy Intensity (TOE/GDP) 116 104 93 85 79 Final energy (MTOE) 254 333 407 520 606 Final energy demand (TWh) 2954 3873 4733 6050 7045
TWh Energy consumption 2050 10'000 7'500 Final energy demand - optmistic Final energy demand - average 5'000 7.000-8.800 TWh 2'500 0 Premises GDP Projection (PwC) 215 Million people in 2050 (IBGE) World average energetic intensity (BP) and 85% in optimistic scenario 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Renewable Energy Plants Reference Plants Total Power 2050 [GW] Biomass 455 Ethanol 79 Biodiesel Plant 35 Biogas Plant 18 Gasefication 25 Incineration 258 Charcoal / Pellets 40,0 Biokerosene Plant 0,5 Solar 1 285 PV integrated in buildings 450 Solar heat plant 200 PV open field 635 Reference Plants Total Power 2050 [GW] Hydro 133 Small hydropower plant 18 Large hydropower plant 115 Ocean power plant <0,1 Wind 400 Small wind power plant 100 Large wind power plant 300 Geothermal 0,1 Ground-source heatpumps 0,1 TOTAL 2 272 TOTAL 2 272 2010 Installed Capacity [GW] 2050 440 2 270
PV in Brazil: High potential Brazil: <35 MWp PV (end of 2012) Germany: >30 000 MWp PV (end of 2012) Fonte: Meyer Burger / UFRGS-Labsol
Renewable Energy Potential 13% Biomass 11% 39% Solar Hydro 37% Wind
Main production areas
Biomass Amazon forest Potential: 5.000 TWh (2050) Energetic crops and biomass residues 2010 Protection areas 405 Million hectares Agriculture 66 Million hectares 10% - Sugarcane Livestock 210 Million hectares 37% Sugarcane 21% Soy, Jatropha 18% Corn 17% Firewood 2% Rice 2% Manure 2% Municipal waste
Biomass Biomass Energy 3.200 TWh em 2050 Electricity 16% Ethanol 16% Biodiesel 9% Biomethane 4% Biokerosene 0,1% Syngas 7% Steam 38% Charcoal / Pellets 10%
Solar Large areas with great solar incidence Solar plants for electricity 20 a 100 MW Fonte: Atlas Brasileiro de Energia Solar
Energia Hídrica Water Amazon forest Conservation areas: NOT CONSIDERED Potential watersheds Fonte: Plano Nacional de Energia 2030
Energia Eólica Wind Amazon forest Existing wind parks, potential use in expansion Potential areas to be explored
Conclusions Brazil can supply its on energetic demand with renewable sources even in 2050 Biomass and solar power: 75% of total energy Development of poor regions Investment opportunities Storage and transmission strategy needed Future matrix based on electricity Electricity Heat Fuels 0% 50% 100%
Recommendations Solar energy industry incentives Cell production Areas for solar parks Local development for biomass technologies Strategies for electricity based mobility Incentives for improvements in storage and transmission
1. Brazil s energy system where is it heading? 2. 100% renewable energy in Brazil, 2050 is it feasible? The EKOS Brasil Study 3. If it were to happen would Europe notice? Junta Joven Ernst Basler+Partner, 24 Sep 2014 28
If it were to happen would Europe notice? Biomass is Europe s most favourite excuse for not saving energy. 25% of world s ethanol is from Brazil. Brazil is largest exporter. Junta Joven Ernst Basler+Partner, 24 Sep 2014
Use renewables, and export fossil energy? + 100% renewable target will drive efficiency + It makes sense to combine Brazil s hydro flexibility with renewable energy? Export all fossil energy? Is Brazil ready to refuse Europe s Willingness To Pay for renewable energy? Junta Joven Ernst Basler+Partner, 24 Sep 2014 30
Botnia s pulp mill at the Uruguay river Sweden promotes the use of biomass for heating and transport Not enough biomass anymore in Sweden for pulp and paper production New Botnia pulp mill in Uruguay Junta Joven Ernst Basler+Partner, 24 Sep 2014 31
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION! 100% renewable energy, in 2050: Brazil can achieve this goal. It s a small world, at least regarding energy setting goals always affects other countries and sectors! Anticipate systemic and indirect effects! 32