CROATIA Risk Assessment Exercise JRC Institute for Energy Enlargement and Integration Workshop, 5-7 October 211 Hotel Valamar Lacroma, Dubrovnik, Croatia Robert Bošnjak, Energy Institute Hrvoje Požar
BASIC INDICATORS o - TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY In TPES the structure of energy consumption is somewhat more unfavorable as compared to the EU-27. Crude oil has a 2 times higher share than in EU-27, while the consumption of natural gas is 5 percent higher than in the EU-27. The EU Member States make up for the lower share of crude oil with higher shares of hydro, coal, comb. renewables and waste and nuclear. CROATIA Petroleum Products Natural Gas 26% Nuclear Hydro 6% EU-27 Nuclear 1 Hydro 23% Crude Oil 54% Coal 5% Geoth. Solar etc. Combust.Rene w. Waste 4% Electricity 5% Heat Natural Gas 17% Petroleum Products Crude Oil 26% Coal 11% Geoth. Solar etc. 1% Combust.Rene w. Waste 12%
BASIC INDICATORS o - TOTAL FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION In TFEC energy shares are almost identical as to that of the EU-27 CROATIA Gas 23% Geoth. Solar etc. Combust.Rene w. Waste 5% EU-27 Gas 23% Geoth. Solar etc. Combust.Rene w. Waste 6% Electricity 19% Electricity 2 Petroleum Products 48% Crude Oil Coal 2% Heat 3% Petroleum Products 44% Coal Crude Oil 3% Heat 4%
BASIC INDICATORS o - ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION In the production of electricity there is no dominant energy source. Share of petroleum product is high. An increase in the use of natural gas and coal can be expected in the future, and most probable in nuclear also, due to the need to reduce CO2 emissions. CROATIA Gas 3 Nuclear EU-27 Nuclear 33% Hydro 28% Gas 2 Petroleum Products 24% Crude Oil Coal 18% Geoth. Solar etc. Combust.Rene w. Waste Petroleum Products 4% Crude Oil Coal 3 Hydro 4% Geoth. Solar etc. 3% Combust.Rene w. Waste 6%
SECURITY OF SUPPLY Gas dependence of national economy GDNE Gas Dependency of National Economy = (gas imports/total gas use) (total gas use/total energy use) (total energy use/gdp) ITALY BULGARIA CROATIA AUSTRIA ROMANIA 196 1962 1964 1966 1968 197 1972 1974 1976 1978 198 1982 1984 1986 1988 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 year
SECURITY OF SUPPLY Herfindahl-Hirschman Index measure of market concentration, 1, to be a competitive marketplace; a result of 1,-1,8 to be a moderately HHI Hirschmann concentrated Herfindhal marketplace; Index and a result of 1,8 7 or greater to be a highly concentrated marketplace 6 ITALY BULGARIA AUSTRIA ROMANIA 5 CROATIA 4 3 2 1 196 1962 1964 1966 1968 197 1972 1974 1976 1978 198 1982 1984 1986 1988 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 year
GAS CONSUMPTION 3,5 3, 2,5 35 1 9 m 3 2, 1,5 1,,5 65, 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 28 Net Production Imports Total Gas Supply
GAS CONS. FORECAST 9, 8, 7, 1 9 m 3 6, 5, 4, 3, - 5 2, 1,, -1, 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 218 22 222 224 226 228 23 Available (production and exist. import) Difference (new import)
GAS SYSTEM 1,7 6,5 source: Plinacro
SECURITY Croatia = 184% source: EC secretariat
GAS SYSTEM 15, 1, 5, 1 9 m 3, 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 218 22 222 224 226 228 23-5, -1, Production Hungary - D. Miholjac Difference (-surplus +new capacity needed) Slovenija - Rogatec Exp. Bosnia and Herzegovina
GAS SYSTEM 1,7 + 2 6,5 +? + 5 source: Plinacro
RISKS POLITICAL Diversification of supply Larger storage Risk mitigation measures source: ENTSOG
Ukraine Austria Hungary Irish Republic Germany Italy Yugoslavia Bulgaria Turkey France Slovakia Czech Republic Greece Byelorussia Spain Georgia Slovenia Armenia Belgium Bosnia and Hercegovina Cyprus Estonia Finland Iceland Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Macedonia Malta Moldova Portugal Sweden Switzerland Poland Netherlands Albania United Kingdom Romania Croatia Azerbaydzhan Denmark 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2,, Producers - more than 5 percent from domestic sources Storage in gas TPES 7 % STORAGE Producers - more than 15-35 percent from domestic sources Storage in gas TPES 25 % Importers - <15 percent from domestic sources Storage in gas TPES 12 % Gas TPES Storage working capacity Goal: Reach >3 % in gas TPES (strategic and peak shaving) Norway 1 9 m 3
CRISIS MITIGATION 1. Decrease supply of gas heat and power to 62. m3/h, fertilizers to 6. m3/h, refinery to 1. m3/h 2. Decrease supply of fertilizers to 15. m3/h, refinery to technical minimum and others on transport to available capacity 3. Decrease supply of all costumers with replacements fuels 4. Decrease supply of gas heat and power to 32. m3/h, fertilizers and others on transport to technical minimum 5. Decrease supply to costumer on distribution level with replacements fuels 6. Supply interruption to non-producing costumer on distribution level to technical minimum 7. Decrease supply to producing costumer on distribution level to technical minimum 8. Supply interruption to all costumer on transport (not heat and power), and to costumers on distribution level 9. Supply interruption to all costumers except protected 1.Supply interruption to all to of the minimal functioning level of gas system