Presented in association with

International Trends Critical Issues for the 21 st Century Domestic Impacts American Planning Association Daniel Burnham Forum on Big Ideas National Building Museum Washington, DC September 30, 2012 Eugenie L. Birch Nussdorf Professor of Urban Research Department of City and Regional Planning School of Design Co-Director, Penn Institute for Urban Research University of Pennsylvania

ASLA AIA APA Economy Digital Revolution Regionalism Demography Urbanization Demography Social Change Climate Change Public Health Public Health Water Water Urban Planning and Land Use Monetization of pubic realm Climate Change Transportation Zoning and land management

ASLA AIA APA Sustainable Sites Low impact development Inclusive, compact development Education Shared vision of common Show value of long range destiny planning Vigilance Control the conversation Don t get too comfortable

The creation of more resilient and inclusive urban environments over the next century will require the widespread dissemination and adaptation of good practice, I innovative policy options, and a growing stock of knowledge that have already appeared or are near emergence.

The World: Population Growth Urban Population Economy Security Water Food Energy International Trends.

23 megacities (10 million plus) 525 small cities (500,000-1 million)

Urumqi, China Population 2.3 million Location: 1,600 miles from the coast Kaohsiung, Taiwan, Population 2.3 million; Location: 214 miles from Taipei (96 minutes by $18 billion High Speed rail (opened in 2008)

80% urban 80% urban 85% urban 5% urban land 2% urban land 13% urban land 40% urban 49% urban.6% urban land 4% urban land

City Planning 101 Meets. Energy 101 Environmental and Social Impacts Location BUILDINGS (Industrial, Residential, Commercial/Service) Street SYSTEMS (Passenger/Freight Vehicular, Marine, Air, Rail) Environmental and Social Impacts POWER (Industrial, Residential, Commercial/Service) Generation (Types) TRANSPORT (Passenger/Freight Vehicular, Marine, Air, Rail) Source/Mode Age Water/Sewerage Distribution Distribution Types, Design and Form: Density (FAR), Grain, Materials, Windows/ HVAC New technologies (e.g. integrated design, adaptive reuse, hot desks Finance and management Capital Stock (public buildings, bridges, plants) Innovations (green infrastructure, Finance and management Economic Effects LAND Consumption: Buildings, Industrial Production, Infrastructure New technologies (e.g. Smart grid, waste to energy, renewables ) Finance and management Consumption: Functions/Routes Innovations (e.g BRT, EVS LNG, ) Finance and management Economic Effects

Social and Environmental Impact POWER (Industrial, Residential, Commercial/Service) Generation (Types) Energy TRANSPORT (Passenger/Freight Vehicular, Marine, Air, Rail) Source/Mode Distribution/capacity Consumption: Buildings, Industrial Production, Infrastructure New technologies (e.g. Smart grid, waste to energy, renewables ) Distribution/capacity Consumption: Functions/Routes Innovations (e.g BRT, EVS LNG, ) Finance and management Finance and management Economic Effects

Equity: Energy Poverty, Energy Transition, Health, Reliability Energy Security Global Warming Sources and location of CO2 Emissions

Demand for Energy By Use By Energy Type (c.1/3 oil, note electricity)

Transport Oil

Cities and Energy More on Energy

+ + Population (8.3 billion by 2030) GDP = Level of urbanization (60% by 2030) Source: Enerdata November 2011

World Consumption of oil: 90 million barrels/day US Share: 21% (19,150 million bbl/day)

World Consumption of coal 18.5 million short tons/day US Share: 17% (2.6 million short tons/day)

World Consumption of natural gas: 113 Trillion cubic feet US Share: 50%

Renewables: 16% of world energy US Share: very small (only 8% of US total energy)

Water used to refine 1 barrel of oil: 1,851 gallons US: 35 billion gallons daily Biggest user of water in the US: Electricity not agriculture (Half the water withdrawn from rivers Lakes and seashores: 200 million gallons USGS, 2012)

Data farms worldwide consume 30 billion watts of electricity or the equivalent of the output of 30 nuclear plants Energy: Petroleum: servicing/ growing Natural Gas: electricity production Coal:: electricity

Poor countries will have to build the equivalent of a city of a million each week for at least forty years. Joel Cohen, in Birch and Wachter, Global Urbanization (2011) Petroleum: Electricity: construction vehicles (bulldozers, trucks, cranes), petroleum based materials (e.g. plastic pipes, flooring) cement, steel and other industrially produced materials, later building operations

Transportation Planners: think about providing alternative modes BUT do they think about where the energy comes from to support them? Energy Petroleum: Ethanol: Natural Gas Electricity: Buses, mopeds and autos/ road building materials Mandated requirements Truck and bus fleets EVs, manufacturing the buses, mopeds, autos and bikes traffic lights; cement infrastructure

Investments Who, What, When Process: Government to Private Equity Energy-supply Infrastructure $38 Trillion next decades or $1.7 Trillion/year (Source: International Energy Agency 2011) Clean Energy Investments 2011 $237 Billion US, China, Germany, India (Source: Pew Charitable Trust)

The Nation Population Economy Security Food Water Energy Domestic Impact

Current debt: $16,015,131,024,562.54 (September 27, 2012)

Canada (29%) Saudi Arabia (14%) Venezuela (11%) Nigeria (10%) Mexico (8%) Rocky Mt 3% West Coast 12% East Coast 20% Midwest 14% Gulf Coast 51%

How can we do all these things in the US, if we don t even know the energy vocabulary back the Energy 101 Energy 101

Energy is an industry with unique characteristics Complex, environmentally unfriendly, dispersed, interdependent pieces Energy is an industry

Planners and Energy S So now its time to think about design, writ large

Result of international conference to Celebrate the 50 th anniversary of the University of Pennsylvania Conference on Urban Design Criticism that spawned the great work of the 1960S

COMPACT CITY: Scale: region, city, neighborhood Type: existing or new settlement core, periphery, semi-periphery Characteristics Dense Mixed Use High capacity Infrastructure Form and structure Shape of land cover (linear, circular) Compactness Fragmentation Polycentricity/centrality

Source: Cities Alliance, Guide to City Development Strategies Improving Urban Performance 2006

New Partners Engineers Geologists Investers Recasting our assets Visualization Analysis Sensitivity to holistic approaches Communication

They all had big ideas

International Trends Critical Issues for the 21 st Century Domestic Impacts American Planning Association Daniel Burnham Forum on Big Ideas