Reference Materials COAL INDUSTRY OVERVIEW May 2013
Table of Contents Global Energy Resource Reserves -----------------------------------------------3 Global Energy Resource Supply ---------------------------------------------------4 World Total Primary Energy Supply Shares, World Total Fuel Shares of Electricity Generation Global Coal Consumption Outlook ------------------------------------------------5 Global Coal Consumption Outlook, Coal Shares of Power Generation in Major Countries Global Coal Reserves ----------------------------------------------------------------6 World Coal Trade ---------------------------------------------------------------------7 World Coal Exporters and Importers ----------------------------------------------8 Trends in Coal Exports and Imports by Major Countries ---------------------9 Coal Consumption in Japan --------------------------------------------------------10 Coal Consumption by Industry, Total Electricity Generation and Generation by Fuel Type Trends in Domestic and Imported Coal in Japan and Import Sources ---11 Volume of Domestic and Imported Coal Supply, Japan s Coal Import Sources Australian Coal Prices 1: Annual ---------------------------------------------------12 Australian Coal Prices 2: Quarterly ------------------------------------------------13 2
Global Energy Resources Reserves Worldwide Data as of 2010 Crude Oil Natural Gas Coal Uranium Reserves (R) 169 Billion Tonnes 192 Trillion m 3 728 Billion Tonnes 2.755 Million Tonnes North America 3.7% 5.6 % 31.8 % 16.5 % Central and South America 8.5 3.8 1.3 8.6 Reserve status by region Europe Middle East Asia-Pacific 1.3 62.2 3.6 2.7 39.5 8.4 2.5 0.2 43.3 0.7 1.6 51.0 Africa 10.4 7.6 4.2 6.3 CIS 10.2 32.9 16.8 15.2 Annual Production(P) 3.94 Billion Tonnes 3.24 Trillion m 3 6.341 Billion Tonnes 53,700 Tonnes Life of Reserves (R/P) 42.8 Years 59.5 Years 114.9 Years 51.3 Years Source:BGR Reserves, Resources and Availability of Energy Resources 2011 3
Global Energy Resource Supply World Total Primary Energy Supply 2010 World Total Fuel Shares of Electricity Generation 2010 Combustible Renewables and Waste 10.0% Others* 0.9% Hydro 2.3% Nuclear 5.7% LNG 21.4% Oil 32.4% Coal 27.3% Others** 3.7% Hydro 16.0% Nuclear 12.9% LNG 22.2% Coal 40.6% Oil 4.6% *Others include Geothermal, Solar, Wind Power etc. **Others include Geothermal, Solar, Wind Power, Biofuels, Renewable Energy etc. Source:IEA Key World Energy Statistics 2012 Source:IEA Key World Energy Statistics 2012 4
Global Coal Consumption Outlook Global Coal Consumption Outlook Coal Shares of Electricity Generation in Selected Countries 2010 Million Tons 12,000 10,000 8,990 9,741 10,461 Central and South America Africa Middle East China 78% 8,000 7,474 7,870 8,235 Russia/ Eastern Europe Europe India 68% 6,000 TOTAL 6,119 North America Other Asia US 46% Australia/NZ Germany 44% 4,000 South Korea Japan Japan 27% 2,000 India China Russia 16% 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Source:EIA International Energy Outlook2011 Source:IEA Key World Energy Statistics 2012 5
Global Coal Reserves Sub-bituminous bituminous and Anthracite and Brown Coal Bituminous coal (100Million tonnes) (100 Million tonnes) Data in 2011 180 700 23 Other African countries Europe (Total 880) 49 746 India (Total 795) 914 78 687 Russia (Total 1,600) 110 China (Total 1,916) 1,806 256 911 93 Indonesia (Total 172) Other Asia/Oceania (Total 1,168) Canada (Total 66) 22 US (Total 2,566) 43 308 2,258 Colombia 49 280 371 438 Other Latin American Countries (Total 93) 51 49 South Africa Australia (Total 809) Source:BGR Reserves, Resources and Availability of Energy Resources 2011 6
World Coal Trade Japan imports coal approximately 180 million tonnes annually which is 16% of the world coal trade, 1,100 million tonnes. (from US) 0.9 7.4 Other European countries 1.2 49.6 (from Colombia) Poland 5.3 8.1 (from Canada) 7.9 (from US) 38.8 51.3 (from Colombia) (from US) 3.7 7.8 From Colombia) (to Latin America) 1.9 1.1 (to North America) OECD Europe 231.2 (from Indonesia) 18.2 23.8 Africa / Middle East 23.8 0.7 0.6 7.3 South Africa 67.3 (to Japan) 13.9 59.0 Kazakhstan 24.4 2.9 10.1 37.9 (to Latin America) 1.2 Russia 117.3 28.2 Asia (Import includes China) 574.0 262.7 Indonesia 309.0 0.9 (to Other European countries) China (Export) 12.7 8.2 11.9 4.4 1.5 33.7 18.4 (from South Africa) Japan 175.4 145.7 0.7 Australia 283.4 109.7 Data in 2011(Million tonnes):red- increased, Blue- decreased from 2010 3.4 4.6 5.3 7.9 18.9 1.7 North America 28.7 0.9 14.6 (to Asia and China) Canada 32.1 0.6 2.5 9.2 US 93.9 Latin America 35.3 1.2 5.3 9.6 (to OECD Europe) (to Other European countries) 7.4 38.8 (to OECD Europe) 3.7(to Africa and Middle East) 8.1 (to Other Europe) 10.6 1.2 10.8 Colombia 51.3 (to OECD Europe) 89.0 1.9 7.8 (to Africa and Middle East) (from South Africa) 1.1 (from South Africa) Source:IEA Coal Information 2012 (from Russia) 7
World Coal Exporters and Importers Coal Exporters Coal Importers Kazakhstan Others* 3% Canada China 9% 3% 2% Indonesia 26% South Africa 6% Colombia 7% US 8% World Total Coal Export 2011 1,141.98 million tonnes Russia 11% Australia 25% Russia 2% UK 3% Others** 30% Germany 4% Taiwan 6% India 10% China 17% World Total Coal Import 2011 1,102.41 million tonnes South Korea 12% Japan 16% *Others includes Poland, Venezuela, Ukraine, India etc. **Others includes Belgium, France, Spain, US, Canada etc. Source : IEA Coal Information 2012 8
Trends in Coal Exports and Imports of Selected Countries (Million tonnes) 350 Japan(import) South Korea(import) China(import) India(import) Taiwan(import) Australia(export) Indonesia(export) US(export) China(export) 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011e (Year) Source:IEA Coal Information 2012 9
Coal Consumption in Japan Coal Consumption by Industry Total Electric Generation and Shares of Generating Sources (Million tonnes) 200 Total Coal Sales(left axis) Ceramic, stone,clay(right axis) Electricity(right axis) Cokes(right axis) Steel(right axis) (Million tonnes) 100 100% Coal LNG Hydro Total Electricity Generation(right axis) Oil Nuclear Others 1200 180 90 90% 160 140 80 70 80% 70% 30.4% 33.6% 16.8% 28.7% 1000 800 120 100 80 60 60 50 40 30 60% 50% 40% 30% 19.2% 29.2% 24.3% 8.1% 32.4% 10.7% 29.1% 4.2% 600 400 40 20 20 10 20% 10% 14.6% 27.6% 30.2% 25.7% 200 0 0 1985 1995 2005 (Year) Source: Agency of Natural Resources and Energy,2012 Annual Report on Energy 0% 1990 2010 2015f 2020f Source:IEA World Energy Outlook 2012 0 10
Trends in Domestic / Imported Coal and Import Sources Volumes of Domestic and Imported Coal Supply 99.4% of coal being supplied in Japan is imported. Japan s s Coal Import Sources 62% of total import (175 million tonnes) is from Australia. (Miliion tonnes) 200 100% 180 90% Import Ratio (%) 160 80% 140 70% 120 60% 100 50% 80 40% 60 Imported 30% 40 coal 20% 20 Domestic 10% production 0 0% 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2011 (Year) China 2% US 4% Canada 5% Russia 7% Indonesia 19% Others 1% Australia 62% Source: Agency for Natural Resources and Energy,2012 Annual Report on Energy 11
Australian Coal Price Chart 1 : Annual Price (US$/Mt) 350.00 300.00 300.00 330.00 250.00 240.00 254.10 200.00 172.00 150.00 100.00 50.00 0.00 125.00 129.85 121.00 125.00 79.50 95.00 39.80 29.50 52.50 28.75 FY2000 FY2001 FY2002 FY2003 FY2004 FY2005 FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 Q1 FY2011 Q1 FY2012 Q1 FY2013 Q1 Hard Coking Coal(Steel material) 39.80 42.79 46.00 44.00 57.00 125.00 115.00 98.00 300.00 129.00 200.00 330.00 206-210 172.00 Semi-soft Coking Coal(Steel material) 29.50 35.40 31.92 29.92 42.00 79.50 58.00 63.90 240.00 81.00 167.00 254.10 147.00 121.00 Thermal Coal(Electricity and general industry) 28.75 34.50 31.85 26.75 45.00 52.50 52.50 55.50 125.00 70.50 97.75 129.85 115.00 95.00 (Mitsui Matsushima Co. Ltd. Research) *Thermal Coal prices are fixed ones in April of each year. *See the next page 12
Australian Coal Price Chart 2 : Quarterly Price (US$/Mt) 350.00 330.00 300.00 250.00 254.10 200.00 200.00 206.00 172.00 150.00 167.00 129.85 147.00 121.00 100.00 97.75 115.00 95.00 50.00 0.00 FY2010 Q1 FY2010 Q2 FY2010 Q3 FY2010 Q4 FY2011 Q1 FY2011 Q2 FY2011 Q3 FY2011 Q4 FY2012 Q1 FY2012 Q2 FY2012 Q3 FY2012 Q4 FY2013 Q1 Hard Coking Coal(Steel material) 200.00 225.00 209.00 225.00 330.00 315.00 285.00 235.00 206.0-210.0 206.00 225.00 170.00 165.00 172.00 Semi-soft Coking Coal(Steel material) 167.00 172.00 143.00 180.00 254.1-264.0 254.10 212-242.55 212.00 179.0 179.00-182.0 145.0-179.0 145.00 147.00 147.00 117.00 117.00 121.00 Thermal Coal(Electricity and general industry) 97.75 97.75 97.75 97.75 129.85 129.85 129.85 129.85 115.00 115.00 115.00 115.00 95.00 (Mitsui Matsushima Co. Ltd. Research) *Thermal Coal prices are fixed ones in April of each year. 13
Source publication list IEA International Energy Agency Coal Information 2012 (published in Nov. 2012) Key World Energy STATISTICS 2012 (published in Nov.2012) World Energy Outlook2012 (published in Nov. 2012) EIA U.S. Energy Information Administration International Energy Outlook2011 (published in Sep. 2011) BGR Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources Reserves, Resources and Availability of Energy Resources 2011 (published in Jun. 2011) Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, 2012 Annual Report on Energy (published in Dec.2012) 14