IEEJ 24 March 2014 Keisuke Sadamori, Director, Energy Markets & Security, IEA
World energy demand by fuel Mtoe 5 000 4 000 Oil Coal Gas 3 000 2 000 Biomass 1 000 Nuclear Other renewables Hydro 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2035
Change in world energy demand by fuel & scenario, 2011-2035 Mtoe 2 000 CPS 1 500 1 000 NPS 450S 500 0-500 -1 000-1 500 Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Bioenergy Other renewables
Coal use grows further albeit at a slower pace than in the past Incremental world coal demand, historical & by scenario 1987-2011 New Policies Scenario 1987-2001 2001-2011 2011-2020 2020-2035 Current Policies Scenario 450 Scenario -2 000-1 000 0 1 000 2 000 3 000 Mtce
Fossil energy resources by type 3 050 years Total remaining recoverable resources Proven reserves Cumulative production to date 142 years 233 years 178 years 61 years 54 years Coal Natural gas Oil
Electricity generation in non-oecd countries has only begun to rise Electricity generation by source OECD Non-OECD TWh 10 000 8 000 6 000 4 000 2 000 1990 2011 2035 1990 2011 2035 Coal Renewables Gas Nuclear Oil
The engine of energy demand growth moves to South Asia Primary energy demand, 2035 (Mtoe) Share of global growth 2012-2035 United States 2 240 480 Brazil Europe Africa 1 710 Middle East 1 030 Eurasia 1 370 1 050 1 540 India China 4 060 440 Japan 1 000 Southeast Asia Africa Middle East Latin America 8% 10% Eurasia 8% 5% OECD 4% 65% Non-OECD Asia China is the main driver of increasing energy demand in the current decade, but India takes over in the 2020s as the principal source of growth
The centre of coal trade is shifting to developing Asia Major net importers of coal Mtce 400 300 200 2035 Change 2020-2035 Change 2011-2020 2011 100 0-100 India Rest of Asia China Japan European Union Korea The role of key OECD coal importers declines further, while Asian importers gain in importance, with India becoming the largest net importer early in the next decade
IEEJ : March The power sector is fundamental to the energy outlook of Southeast Asia 2014 All Right Reser ASEAN incremental electricity generation by fuel, 2011-2035 Coal Renewables Gas Nuclear Oil -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 TWh
Emissions off track in the run-up to the 2015 climate summit in France Cumulative energy-related CO 2 emissions Gt 800 Total emissions 1900-2035 600 400 Non-OECD Non-OECD 49% OECD 200 OECD 51% 1900-1929 1930-1959 1960-1989 1990-2012 2013-2035 Non-OECD countries account for a rising share of emissions, although 2035 per capita levels are only half of OECD
Coal demand knows only one direction: up PRIMARY ENERGY FROM FOSSIL FUELS
BAU: China leading the (coal) world COAL DEMAND IN CHINA AND IN THE REST OF THE WORLD
What happened in China in 2012? COAL DEMAND GROWTH IN CHINA (y-o-y)
OECD countries are not reducing coal use COAL DEMAND PROJECTIONS
Growth led by Asia COAL DEMAND TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS
But who is more coal-dependent? COAL USE IN POWER GENERATION Note: 2011 Data
Displacing coal in Asia will not be that easy COAL AND GAS PRICES. IMPLIED CO2 PRICE TO TRIGGER FUEL SWITCHING
Coal trade: growing faster, moving East 113 (+16) 65 (+14) 113 (+21) 489 (+106) 89 (+15) 223 (+63) Global thermal seaborne trade 1131 Mt (2018) (+244 Mt 2012-18)
Prices going down SPOT PRICE OF THERMAL, COKING AND PCI COAL (AUSTRALIA-FOB) USD/t 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Newcastle steam coal (FOB) Australian low vol PCI (FOB) Australian prime hard coking (FOB) Evolution of fossil fuel prices
IEEJ But low coal price is not just a US story : March 2014 All Right Reser
EPA regulations shortened coal fleet
Where did unburned US coal go?
This is the answer The James River Coal company announced Tuesday it is closing several mines in eastern Kentucky and laying off 525 employees. Argus Energy has notified West Virginia labor authorities that it will shut two underground coal mines, a preparation plant and the Wayne County River Terminal on December 27. Major Layoffs at Oxbow Coal Mine America West Resources entered bankruptcy in February 2013 The vice president of Springfield Coal Company tells us nearly 190 Crown III miners have been laid off in Farmersville. Patriot Coal entered bankruptcy protection in July 2012 More than 250 miners and employees have been let go. The lay-offs took place at the Guyan Surface Mine and the Fanco Prep Plant in Yolyn in Logan County.
Central Appalachian and PRB felt the bit COAL SHIPPED IN US BY BASINS Mt 500 Mt 20 400 0 300-20 200-40 100-60 0 NAPP CAPP SAPP Eastern Interior Texas Powder River Basin 2011 2012 Absolute change 2012/11 (right axis) Uinta Basin -80
Economics of coal gasification do make sense AN ESTIMATE OF COAL-BASED SNG
Wrapping up Coal demand will grow at average 2.3% per year to reach almost 9 billion tonnes in 2018 Despite some policy changes, China will lead the way, absorbing roughly 60 % of that growth OECD consumption remains flat Indonesia and Australia will lead export growth Coal conversion in China emerges as a driver of demand growth
Thank you Keisuke.sadamori@iea.org www.iea.org To purchase the book, click: http://www.iea.org/w/bookshop/add.aspx?id=461 Contact : report@tk