PULSES SPECIAL BULLETIN 10 th June, 2013 Pulses Market Summary Pulses traded mix in the spot, however with the monsoon rains covering major geographical area of the country supplies have been limited and there was also improvement in demand during the later phase of the week. The Kharif outlook remains bright as initial conditions have been very favorable for crop growth. IMD expected to again project normal rains in country in its second stage forecast on June 10. Technical Analysis During the month of May, Chana July 2013 contract remained in the grip of bears and fell sharply. July 2013 contract remained bearish and fell sharply from a high of Rs. 3638 on 2nd May to a low of 3176 on 29th May. Now prices are consolidating near the recent lows and expected to take some bounce back because of profit booking at lower levels after such as sharp fall. Immediate support is at 2980 and if the given level is broken then may test 2810. On the upside immediate resistance is at 3430 above this pair may again test 3705 levels. MACD is trading in negative zone signifies weakness in coming trading weeks. Price is likely to trade sideways and might find stiff support at lower price levels. Buy is preferable. NCDEX: Chickpea (Chana), July Chart Call Entry T1 T2 SL Buy 3090 3240 3360 2980 S1 S2 PCP R1 R2 2980 2810 3191 3430 3705 STOCK POSITION OF CHANA AT NCDEX ACCREDITED WAREHOUSES AS ON 10 JUNE 2013 Metric Tonnes(MT) Change Commodity Location Dematted Stock NCDEX 08.06.2012 08.06.2013 Monsoon till Now: Bikaner (Raj.) 7046 72376 +65330 Chana Delhi 46300 42229-4071 Indore (MP) 21153 9378-11775 Weekly Monsoon Forecast: Total 74499 123,983 +49484 Conditions are favorable for further advance of southwest monsoon over remaining parts of Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, east Uttar Pradesh and some parts of Madhya Pradesh during next 2-3 days. Subsequently, there is a high probability that monsoon will
advance most parts of the country outside some parts of Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana and West Uttar Pradesh during the subsequent 3-4 days. Vigorous monsoon conditions with heavy to very heavy falls would prevail over east India & adjoining central India during first half of the week, which may subsequently shift towards west central India. Fairly widespread rain/thundershowers would occur along the west coast and over northeast India. Scattered rain/thundershowers would occur over remaining parts of the country. Monsoon rains have been continuing in the major pulses growing states of south, central, east India. Seasonal rains have been normal to above normal in the major parts of Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Orissa and Gujarat. Rains have been however deficient in major areas of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, but slowly rains are picking up in these states also. The overall scenario for Kharif pulses for initial field preparation, sowing and initial crop growth seems very pleasing and hopefully we may have a good crop harvest this year. CHANA (CHICKPEA) SPOT MARKET: Weekly average prices have improved in the most of the benchmark domestic markets. The week witnessed improvement in demand from resellers and millers. With monsoon rains covering major areas of east, south and central India the availability of vegetables declined and the demand for chickpea and chickpea products improves which thus the demand in the spot has been firm. Meanwhile stockiest have continue to retain huge quantities and unlikely to liquidate in near future. However better rains and the expectation of a good Kharif output may cap the upside along with the fact that the country has adequate stocks of chickpeas and the Australia crop shall also hit the market in August. Seeding is progressing in Saskatchewan and during the week (May 21 May 27, 2013), sixty-seven percent of the seeding has been completed, according to Saskatchewan Agriculture s Weekly Crop Report. Seeding halted for sometime in certain regions amid rainfall in these regions. It is lower than five year s average progress of seventy percent
Taking into account the above factors domestic chickpeas prices are expected to trade with firm bias in near term. Australia Pulses Acreage, Yield, Production 2011-12 Forecasts Area planted ( '000 Ha) Yield ( MT/Ha) Production (kt) 5 yr 2011 12 5 yr 2012 13 5 yr 2011 12 2012 13 f 2011 12 est 2012 13 f Pulses Avg est. Avg f Avg est Field peas 411 327 564 1.15 1.48 1.27 448 485 713 Chickpeas 289 249 281 1.12 1.38 1.14 320 342 320 Lentils 148 173 164 1.27 1.67 1.12 201 288 184 AUSTRALIA-SUPPLY AND DISPOSAL OF PULSES 2010-2011 (kt) 2011-2012 (kt) 2012-2013f (kt) PULSES PRODUCTION Field peas 395 342 320 Chickpeas 513 485 713 APPARENT DOMESTIC USE Field peas 92 124 120 Chickpeas 1 1 1 EXPORTS Field peas 302 215 200 Chickpeas 461 598 712 PEA SPOT MARKET: Weekly average prices have been mostly firm in the market. The crop is out of the field however bullish cues from the international market has been supportive and shall remain supportive in medium term. Major surge in prices have not been witnessed due to prompt imports and subsequent sale by Indian PSUs along with sluggish movement in chickpeas. Further likely bumper kharif production has been also influencing the sentiments. The spring crop planting is slowly coming to an end in Canada and USA. Rains and flooding have severely impacted the operations and we fear that vast tracts of land particularly in Canada may go un planted. Firm prices along with better export demand may motivate farmers to increase acreage under the crop. According to official sources of Saskatchewan, Canada, yellow pea imports to India is expected to be around 1.5 million- 1. 7 million metric tonnes in 2012-13. Prices are expected to rule steady to firm in the cash markets in near term. MASOOR (LENTIL) SPOT MARKET: Weekly average prices of lentils have been mostly firm in the benchmark centers.
Demand has remained scattered in the markets however no major decline in prices is expected as the stocks continue to remain in strong hands. Normal to above normal monsoon rains in central and eastern India shall insure better soil moisture for the following masoor crop during the rabi. Concerns regarding the delay in planting in Canada and US continue, further there are fears among the importers that off-grade lentils of 2012 may be blended with the new harvest. Firm global cues may global cues and expected better demand may keep the prices steady to firm in near term. 66% PULSES PLANTING IN SASKATCHEWAN In Canada s major pulses growing Saskatchewan province 66 % of the pulse crops have been planted. 82 % of the lentils and 77 % of the field peas are in good to fair condition. Rain and thunder showers were recorded for most of the province during the past week. Producers in the west central and northern regions are near seeding completion. Producers in the southern regions made some progress. However, the weather and field conditions continue to be very challenging. Saskatchewan (provincial) Pulses conditions as of June 3, 2013 Pea Lentil Chickpea % Excellent 14 13 N/A % Good 52 57 N/A % Fair 25 26 N/A % Poor 7 4 N/A % Very poor 2 0 N/A URD (BLACK GRAM) SPOT MARKET: Mostly bearish tone prevailed during most part of the week as described by the decline in the weekly average prices at most of the key centers. The sentiments have been influenced by normal to above normal monsoon rains during the initial phase in major producing areas, helping farmers to sow the crop. There was however better demand end of the week in some of the centers from millers and resellers as the demand in retail is expected to improve further due to rains the supplies have been impacted in some of the markets. Thus prices may see some upside on better demand in the coming days however no major surge is expected in medium term as the prospects of the Kharif urad seems very encouraging. TUR (PIGEON PEA) SPOT MARKET: Mix tone was witnessed in the cash markets, after continued decline in the prices during the past couple of weeks. Better domestic crop production and imports from Burma kept the supply side firm and particularly frequent sale tenders by Indian PSU after importing either Burmese or African origin have also weighed on prices. The prices are now stabilizing, although the market remains perplexed regarding the acreage but the conditions continue to remain conducive for crop growth. The next crop is more than half a year away and this shall also remain supportive in medium term.
Prices are expected to move with positive bias in the coming day with expected improvement in demand, significant jump in prices is ruled out in near term. MOONG (GREEN GRAM) SPOT MARKET: Weekly cash market prices have been mix. As in case of other Kharif pulses the bearish impact of monsoon on the market continues but demand from millers/ processors and resellers have been helpful in sustaining the prices. Domestic prices have been also supported by firm international quotes, stockiest in domestic markets have been also holding huge quantities (which many have procured on the news of Chinese drought) in expectation that improvement in demand and any short supply in the markets. Crop sowing has begun in parts of peninsular India and conditions have remained favourable. Prices are expected to trade sideways mostly with firm bias in near term. Disclaimer