HOW GOOD OR BAD ARE TODAY S JOBS? SOME RESEARCH HEADLINES ALAN FELSTEAD Cardiff School of Social Sciences Cardiff University alanfelstead@cf.ac.uk
Pay Regularly Reported Using Official Data
Relatively Low Pay a Feature of the Welsh Economy 24% of workers in Wales are paid less than the Living Wage This compares to 22% in UK as a whole
and Real Average Pay Has Fallen Since 2008
Unemployment Also Regularly Tracked & Reported Again Using Official Data Before the recession unemployment rates in Wales were similar, if not better, to those in the UK as a whole However, in the recession unemployment grew faster in Wales than in Britain This gap remains latest figures give an unemployment rate in Wales of 5.9% compared to 5.6% in Britain (June 2015)
Less Frequent Surveys on Job Quality Date Survey Sample Size 1986 Social Change & Economic Life Initiative 1992 Employment in Britain Survey 4047 3855 1997 Skills Survey 2467 2001 Skills Survey 4470 2006 Skills Survey 7787 2012 Skills and Employment Survey 3200
Skills and Employment Survey 2012 Interviews with workers adults aged 20 to 65 in Britain 3,200 interviewed in 2012, of which 587 were in Wales (407 in 2006) Sampling procedure: national random probability samples, with interviews at home, lasting one hour Data taken from responses given to over 360 questions on skills and the quality of work beyond pay
Two Short Welsh Reports (longer report also available)
but pay is just part of the story! What about the non-pay quality of work? 1. Trends in Training
Fears of Training Cutbacks In an economic downturn, there is always a temptation to cut spending on staff training Calls for Restraint But it s a false economy We must not pay the price of failing to invest in the talent on which our future will be built
No Evidence of a Recession Effect on Incidence of Training Source: own calculations from LFS 1995-2012.
But Training Episodes Less Than One Week Rising 55 Percentage of Training Episodes < One Week 50 45 40 35 30 25 20
But the Quality of Training Has Not Suffered 100 90 80 70 % of jobs 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Certified Skills Way of working Enjoyment Satisfied 2006 2012
2. Trends in Skills Under-utilisation
Over-qualification Rates 45 40 % of Jobs Held by Workers/Graduates 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1986 1992 1997 2001 2006 2012 Overqualified: all workers Overqualified: graduates
How Does the UK Compare? Not Very Well! Over-qualified for the job (%) 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 Overqualification above average in UK 5.0 0.0
How Does Wales Compare? Not Very Well Degree Mismatch, 2006-2012 % of graduates in workforce minus % of graduate jobs 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 London & South East Rest of Britain Wales 2006 2012
But Focusing on Supply is Not Enough 50 45 % of establishments 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Skills shortage vacancies Skills gaps Source: UKCES Employer Skills Survey 2013 Under-use of skills
3. Trends in Work Intensification
70 Work Intensification, 1992-2012 60 50 % of jobs 40 30 20 10 0 1992 1997 2001 2006 2012 High pressure Hard work High speed
Percentage of Hard Working Jobs, 1992-2012 1992 1997 2001 2006 2012 Men 30.5 38.8 36.6 39.2 41.5 Women 32.6 43.1 40.7 45.2 49.6 - full-time - part-time 37.7 24.2 48.0 36.1 47.0 31.4 50.1 37.5 57.1 38.6 Public 31.2 44.4 42.9 47.7 52.5 Private 31.8 39.2 36.7 39.3 42.2
How Does Britain Compare on Work Intensity? Ukraine Britain Ireland Slovakia Spain Hungary Bulgaria Lithuania Greece Poland Germany Finland Cyprus Netherlands Belgium Slovenia Italy Czech Republic Russia Switzerland France Estonia Croatia Norway Portugal Sweden Denmark Work intensity relatively high in Britain 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0 Percentage strongly agreeing that job requires working very hard [meaning long hours or intensity]
4. Fear at Work
50 Workers Fear More than Job Loss, Especially in the Public Sector 45 40 % very or fairly anxious % 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Less say in job Less skill Less pay Less interesting work All Employees Private Sector Public Sector
Five-point Summary 1. Growing wage inequality and real wage stagnation 2. Long-term decline in training incidence and intensity 3. Over-qualification still high but has improved 4. Work has become more intense 5. Job insecurity high, especially in the public sector
References Felstead, A, Davies, R, Jones, S (2013) Job Skills, Qualification Use and Training in Wales: Results from the Skills and Employment Survey 2012, Cardiff: Wales Institute for Social and Economic Research, Data and Methods. Felstead, A, Gallie, D, Green, F and Inanc, H (2013) Skills at Work in Britain: First Findings from the Skills and Employment Survey 2012, London: Centre for Learning and Life Chances in Knowledge Economies and Societies, Institute of Education. Felstead, A, Gallie, D, Green, F and Inanc, H (2013) Work Intensification in Britain: First Findings from the Skills and Employment Survey 2012, London: Centre for Learning and Life Chances in Knowledge Economies and Societies, Institute of Education. Felstead, A and Green, F (2013) Underutilization, overqualification and skills mismatch: patterns and trends, Skills in Focus, June, Glasgow: Skills Development Scotland, www.skillsdevelopmentscotland.co.uk/media/811162/underutilization overqualification_and_ skills_mismatch_patterns_and_trends.pdf Felstead, A, Green, F and Jewson, N (2012) An analysis of the impact of the 2008-09 recession on the provision of training in the UK, Work, Employment and Society, 26(6): 968-986. Felstead, A, Green, F and Jewson, N (2013) Training in recession: the impact of the 2008-2009 recession on training at work, UKCES Evidence Report No 72, September, Wath-upon-Dearne: UK Commission for Employment and Skills, http://www.ukces.org.uk/publications/er72-training-in-recession Green, F, Felstead, A, Gallie, D and Inanc, H (2013) Training in Britain: First Findings from the Skills and Employment Survey 2012, London: Centre for Learning and Life Chances in Knowledge Economies and Societies, Institute of Education. Green, F, Felstead, A, Gallie, D, Inanc, H and Jewson, N (2013) What has been happening to the training of workers in Britain?, LLAKES Research Paper 43, London: ESRC Centre for Learning and Life Chances in Knowledge Economies and Societies, Institute of Education, University of London.