BP Energy Outlook 218 edition Spencer Dale Group chief economist
Alternative scenarios Primary energy consumption by fuel Carbon emissions Billion toe Billion tonnes CO2 2 24 4 35 15 Renewables 3 1 5 216 ET ICE ban Less RE gas push switch FT EFT Hydro Nuclear Coal Gas Oil 2 25 2 15 Evolving transition (ET) Internal combustion engine ban (ICE ban) 1 Less gas switching Renewables push (RE push) 5 Faster transition (FT) Even faster transition (EFT) 197 198 199 2 21 22 23 24
Billion toe 2 Transport 15 1 Three windows on the energy transition Industry Non-combusted Buildings 2 15 1 Primary energy demand End-use sector Region Fuel Other Africa Other Asia India China OECD 2 15 1 Renewables Hydro Nuclear Coal Gas Oil 5 5 5 3
Global energy by fuel Primary energy consumption by fuel Shares of primary energy Billion toe 2 15 1 Renewables Hydro Nuclear Coal Gas Oil 5% 4% 3% Oil Coal Hydro Gas Nuclear Renewables 2% 5 1% 197 198 199 2 21 22 23 24 % 197 198 199 2 21 22 23 24 4
Diversified fuel mix Shares of primary energy 1% 8% 6% Oil Gas Coal Non-fossil 4% 2% % 19 192 194 196 198 2 22 24 5
Natural gas 6
Growth in natural gas demand Gas consumption by region Gas consumption by sector Bcf/d Bcf/d 7 6 5 N America China Middle East Africa Europe India & Other Asia CIS Other 7 6 5 Transport Power Industry Buildings Non-combusted 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 216 24 216 24 7
Possible risks to the outlook for natural gas Billion toe 2. 1.5 Gas demand increase 216-24 Industry Transport Power Buildings Non-combusted 1. Switching.5 Other effects. Evolving transition Less gas switch 8
Possible risks to the outlook for natural gas Billion toe 2. 1.5 Gas demand increase 216-24 Industry Transport Power Buildings Non-combusted 1. Switching.5 Other effects. Evolving transition Less gas switch 9
Possible risks to the outlook for natural gas Billion toe 2. 1.5 1. Gas demand increase 216-24 Industry Transport Power Buildings Non-combusted Switching % per annum -1% % 1% 2% Evolving transition Less gas switch Renewables push Gas demand growth 216-24.5. Evolving transition Less gas switch Other effects 1 Faster transition Even faster transition
LNG continues to grow LNG exports LNG imports Bcf/d Bcf/d 8 7 6 5 4 Middle East N America Russia Africa Australia Other 8 7 6 5 4 China Other Asia India OECD Asia Europe Other 3 3 2 2 1 1 199 2 21 22 23 24 199 2 21 22 23 24 11
Asian demand for US LNG Bcf/d Asian LNG imports and LNG exports of regions close to Asia 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Other* Other Asia Middle East (net) Australia 21 216 22 23 24 *Other includes Peru, Canada, East Africa, Angola, parts of West African and Russian gas supplies 12
Asian demand for US LNG Bcf/d Asian LNG imports and LNG exports of regions close to Asia 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Other* Other Asia Asian LNG imports Middle East (net) Australia 21 216 22 23 24 *Other includes Peru, Canada, East Africa, Angola, parts of West African and Russian gas supplies 13
Gas supply to Europe Bcf/d 7 LNG Other pipeline Russia Production 6 5 4 3 2 1 21 216 22 23 24 14
The role of US in global energy markets US shares of global production 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Gas Oil* % 199 2 21 22 23 24 * Includes crude and NGLs 15
The role of US in global energy markets US shares of global production Regional oil/gas imbalances 5% 4% 3% Billion toe 4 3 2 1 US S & C America Africa Asia Other N Middle East Europe CIS Net exporters 2% 1% Gas Oil* -1-2 -3 Net importers % 199 2 21 22 23 24-4 197 198 199 2 21 22 23 24 * Includes crude and NGLs 16
The role of US in global energy markets US shares of global production Regional oil/gas imbalances 5% 4% 3% Renewables Billion toe 4 3 2 1 US S & C America Africa Asia Other N Middle East Europe CIS Net exporters 2% 1% Gas Oil* -1-2 -3 Net importers % 199 2 21 22 23 24-4 197 198 199 2 21 22 23 24 * Includes crude and NGLs 17
BP Energy Outlook 218 edition Spencer Dale Group chief economist
Electric cars, shared mobility and autonomy Trillion km 4 35 3 Car kilometres by fuel type Electricity Gas Liquids 25 2 15 1 5 216 22 225 23 235 24 19
Electric cars, shared mobility and autonomy Trillion km Car kilometres by fuel type New mobility share of Vkm 4 Electricity 4% Private - autonomous 35 3 Gas Liquids 3% Shared - autonomous Shared - human driver 25 2 2% 15 1 1% 5 216 22 225 23 235 24 % 216 22 225 23 235 24 2
Liquid fuel demand from passenger cars Mb/d 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 18.7 Changes in liquids demand from cars: 216-24 216 Growth in demand for travel 2.5 22.6 18.2 Tightening in vehicle efficiency standards 2. Shared mobility EVs Switch to EVs Other gains in fuel efficiency 18.6 24 21
Global ban on internal-combustion engine (ICE) cars 22
Global ban on internal-combustion engine (ICE) cars Share Electric car sales as a share of total car sales Share Share of total passenger Vkm powered by electricity 1% 1% Evolving transition Evolving transition 8% ICE ban 8% ICE ban 6% 6% 4% 4% 2% 2% % 216 22 225 23 235 24 % 216 22 23 24 23
Impact of ICE ban Mb/d 24 2 Passenger cars liquids demand Evolving transition ICE ban 16 12 8 4 216 Evolving transition ICE ban 216 24 24
Impact of ICE ban Mb/d 24 2 16 Passenger cars liquids demand Evolving transition ICE ban Carbon emissions from energy Billion tonnes CO 2 4 35 3 25 12 8 4 2 15 1 5 Evolving transition ICE ban Even faster transition 216 Evolving transition ICE ban 216 24 199 2 21 22 23 24 25