The Road to Paris: From Global Commitments to National Pledges and Co-Benefits Nebojsa Deputy Director General International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Professor Emeritus of Energy Economics Vienna University of Technology ALPS International Symposium, Effective Frameworks and Measures for Climate Change to COP21, hosted by Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE) at the Technology International Forum, Tokyo 27 February 2015
IIASA Research Strategy Food & Water Energy & Climate Change Poverty & Equity 2015 #2
IIASA Research Strategy Food & Water Energy & Climate Change Poverty & Equity 2015 #3
IIASA Nexus Research Water Energy Food 2015 #4
Global Transformations 10 11 Years before present 10 10 People 10 9 10 8 10 7 10 6 Hunter-Gatherer 10 6 10 5 10 4 10 3 10 2 10 1 10 0 Source: Kates, 1997; Deevey, 1960 2015 #5
Global Transformations Neolithic Revolution 10 11 Years before present 10 10 People 10 9 10 8 700 Million Neolithic 1700 A.D. 10 7 10 6 7 Million 5000 B.C. Hunter-Gatherer 10 6 10 5 10 4 10 3 10 2 10 1 10 0 Source: Kates, 1997; Deevey, 1960 2015 #6
Global Transformations Neolithic and Industrial Revolutions 10 11 Years before present 10 10 7,000 Million Industrial People 10 9 10 8 700 Million Neolithic 1700 A.D. 10 7 10 6 7 Million 5000 B.C. Hunter-Gatherer 10 6 10 5 10 4 10 3 10 2 10 1 10 0 Source: Kates, 1997; Deevey, 1960 2015 #7
Global Transformations People Anthropocene - Toward Sustainability 10 11 10 10 7,000 Million 10 9 700 Million 10 8 Neolithic Years before present after present Anthropocene Industrial Sustainability 1700 A.D. 12.5 Billion 5 Billion 10 7 7 Million 5000 B.C. Hunter-Gatherer 10 6 10 6 10 5 10 4 10 3 10 2 10 1 10 0 10 1 10 2 Source: Lutz & Scherbov, 2007; 2008 2015 #8
100% Urbanization World 80% IIASA SRES A2r scenario IIASA SRES B1 scenario Population 60% 40% Historical (UN) IIASA SRES B2 scenario 20% 0% 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Source: Grubler et al. 2012 2015 #9
Urbanization World, UK, BRICs 100% 80% UK IIASA SRES A2r scenario IIASA SRES B1 scenario Population 60% 40% Historical (UN) IIASA SRES B2 scenario BRICs 20% 0% 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Source: Grubler et al. 2012 2015 #10
Global Educational Attainment 100% 80% Primary Education+ Population 60% 40% Secondary Education+ 20% 0% 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Source: Lutz et al., 2007 2015 #11
Participatory Governance 100% 80% Participatory Population 60% 40% 20% 0% 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Source: Modelski & Perry, 2008; 2010 2015 #12
Participatory Governance Slavery Abolishment 100% Population 80% 60% 40% 20% Abolishment 1863 United States of America 1906 China 1948 UN Declaration of Human Rights Participatory 0% 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Source: & Rogner, 2012; 2015 #13
Cumulative Carbon Emissions 100% 80% RCP 2.6 60% 40% 20% 0% 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2015 #14
Cumulative Carbon Emissions 100% 80% RCP 2.6 60% 40% 20% 0% 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2015 #15
Cumulative Carbon Emissions 100% 80% Net-negative emissions RCP 2.6 60% 40% 20% 0% 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2015 #16
S us tainability Trans formation Transformation Diffusion Growing number of actors of change: green businesses cities civil society science IGOs (UNIDO etc.) Legitimacy of BAU eroding Doing More with Les s within B oundaries Values and norms Policy regimes Increasing problem perception Vision: Sustainable Future Time Source: WBGU, 2011 2015 #17
Transformation Drivers Learning from the Past Normative goals, visions Abolition of slavery, participatory governance, EU Crises, gales of creative destruction The Great Depression, financial crises, disasters Technology, rapid innovation diffusion Substitution of carriages by cars, IT-revolution Knowledge, research-driven society Precautionary principle - ozone layer, climate change Source: Grubler, 2000; WBGU, 2011 2015 #18
2030 Energy Goal Universal Access to Modern Energy Double Energy Efficiency Improvement Double Renewable Share in Final Energy Aspirational & Ambitious but Achievable UN General Assembly resolution 65/151 2015 #19
Transformation of Energy Systems One of 41 GEA Pathways 100% 80% Final Energy 60% 40% LIQUIDS GRIDS 20% SOLIDS 0% 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Source: Global Energy Assessment, 2012 2015 #20
Transformation of Energy Systems One of 41 GEA Pathways 100% 80% Final Energy 60% 40% LIQUIDS GRIDS 20% SOLIDS 0% 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Source: Global Energy Assessment, 2012 2015 #21
Global Primary Energy Historical Evolution EJ 1200 1000 800 600 Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Kommerzielle Luftfahrt Nuklearenergie Mikrochip 400 200 Dampfmaschine Elektrischer Motor Vakuumröhre Ottomotor Fernseher Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal 0 Biomass 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2015 #22
Global Primary Energy no CCS, no Nuclear 1200 1000 800 Einsparungen Savings Andere Other renewables E Nuklear Nuclear Gas Öl Oil Kohle Coal Biomasse Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior) ~40% improvement by 2030 ~55% renewables by 2030 Nuclear phase-out (policy) EJ 600 400 200 Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil 0 Biomass 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 Source: Riahi et al, 2012 2015 #23 Coal
Global Water Withdrawals no CCS, no Nuclear Gm3 1200 1000 800 600 400 Baseline Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Gas wccs Gas woccs Oil Coal wccs Coal woccs Biomass wccs Biomass woccs Renewables Nuclear Gas 200 Oil Coal 0 Biomass 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2015 #24
2015 #25
Global Primary Energy A Transformational Pathway 1200 1000 800 Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior) ~40% improvement by 2030 ~30% renewables by 2030 EJ 600 400 200 Nat-gas-CCS Coal-CCS Bio-CCS negative CO 2 Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal 0 Biomass 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 Source: Riahi et al, 2012 2015 #26
Global Primary Energy A Transformational Pathway EJ 1200 1000 800 600 400 Savings Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Gas wccs Gas woccs Oil Coal wccs Coal woccs Biomass wccs Biomass woccs Nat-gas-CCS Coal-CCS Renewables Nuclear Gas 200 Limited Bioenergy Bio-CCS negative CO 2 Oil Coal 0 Biomass 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 Source: Riahi et al, 2012 2015 #27
Global Water Withdrawals A Transformational Pathway Gm3 1200 1000 800 600 400 Baseline Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Gas wccs Gas woccs Oil Coal wccs Coal woccs Biomass wccs Biomass woccs Nat-gas-CCS Coal-CCS Renewables Nuclear Gas 200 Limited Bioenergy Bio-CCS negative CO 2 Oil Coal 0 Biomass 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 Source: Fricko et al, 2014 2015 #28
Carbon Capture and Storage GEA scenarios: World (GtCO 2 ) 3000 Cum mulative carbon sto ored (GtCO O2) 2500 Max ~ 2500 GtCO 2 2000 1500 rapid upscaling (2050) 1000 Commercialization (2030) 500 Supply Mix Efficiency 0 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Source: Riahi, GEA Transformation possible without CCS (however, needs strong efficiency focus!) 2015 #29
Policy Integration at the Urban Scale Simulated energy use, urban settlement of 20,000, using the SimCity Model Source: Grubler et al, 2012 2015 #30
Global CO 2 Emissions Global CO2 emissions (GtCO2) 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 IPCC AR5 2 Degree RCP 6.0 RCP 4.5 RCP 2.6 RCP 8.5 GEA (SE4ALL) reductions of 35-75% by 2050 Peak by 2020 RCP 8.5 RCP 6.0 RCP 4.5 0 almost zero or negative in the long term RCP 2.6-20 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2015 #31
EU CO 2 Emissions 16 14 12 GEA 2 Degree (>50%) RCP2.6 Pledge CO2 emissions (GtCO2) 10 8 6 4 2 0-2 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2015 #32
USA CO 2 Emissions CO2 emissions (GtCO2) 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 GEA 2 Degree (>50%) RCP2.6 Pledge 0-2 -4 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2015 #33
China CO 2 Emissions 15 10 GEA 2 Degree (>50%) RCP2.6 Pledge CO2 emissions (GtCO2) 5 0-5 -10 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2015 #34
Co-benefits of GHG Mitigation costs Source: IPCC, Figure 6.33 and TS 2015 #35
Community science organizations critical for a comprehensive assessment C4MIP (SRES +) WGI Physical Science WGIII Mitigation Well organized, long tradition AR4 SRES and non-sres studies (highly diverse) WGII Impacts Vulnerability Adaptation Some community efforts More loosely organized EMF22 (non-co2) SRES and non-sres 2015 #36
Community science organizations critical for a comprehensive assessment RCPs WGI Physical Science CMIP5 Inter-comparison Projects EMF 27 (Technology) AMPERE (Delay & Policy) LIMITS WGIII (Burden sharing) Mitigation AME (Asian focus) ROSE (Uncertainty).. AR5 RCPs WGII Impacts Vulnerability Adaptation ISI-MIP AgMIP SSPs 2015 #37
Science for Transformation Better integration across science communities Climate or development first approach too narrow More integrated & holistic assessment of climate change policy in the context of other priorities: Multi-objective & multi-policy framing to better understand climate policy tradeoffs & benefits Nexus approaches to reach multiple objectives simultaneously: energy, water, food & urbanization Challenges are huge: Different constraints and priorities across scales Normative goals involved in policy prioritization 2015 #38
Policy Tools for Decision Making Minimum Fufillment Maximum Fufillment Climate Change Health / Air Pollution Energy Security Energy Access Ancilliary Risks Energy Affordability GEA Pathway Analysis 2015 #39
Jean-Jacques Rousseau Social contract: Man is born free, and everywhere he is in chains 2015 #40
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